ATL: BARRY - Models

[Kazmit]

With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

Would that mean less time over water?

[South Texas Storms]

With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

Would that mean less time over water?

Yeah probably a little less time over water due to the ridge over the SE US being a bit weaker.

[SoupBone]

With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

Not feeling great, but definitely better. However, for Louisiana, if the Euro verifies, they could possibly see some of their worst case scenarios emerge from the flooding side. The Morganza Spillway is around 50% opened right now, and i imagine that will have to be increased.

[Shell Mound]

With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

A respectful caveat: considering the run-to-run spread and variability—both between ensemble members and among ensemble suites—one should not discount the potential impacts to parts of Southeast Texas. Model shifts are likely unfinished at this time. Additionally, the point of landfall may be sufficiently close to Southeast TX as to produce at least moderate, if not more severe, impacts around Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Sabine Pass, especially if 92L (prospective BARRY) manages to organise and deepen more than the preponderance of guidance suggests, which is well within the realm of possibility.

[ColdMiser123]

With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

Would that mean less time over water?

Probably by about 12 to 18 hours or so. A stronger trough will likely mean the system will stall for an extended period of time though, due to the conflicting steering flow.

[SoupBone]

With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

Would that mean less time over water?

Probably by about 12 to 18 hours or so. A stronger trough will likely mean the system will stall for an extended period of time though, due to the conflicting steering flow.

Which plays into Louisiana seeing the possibility of a nasty flooding event.

[Nederlander]

With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

This is my line of thinking as well. Especially with the model convergence today. I then saw Bernie Rayno’s feed and he is not convinced at all that the trough will pick up 92L. I don’t know what is telling him that though and why he seems to disagree with the model guidance so matter of factly, but it’ll be interesting I guess.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1148666342914088960

[artist]

Long way to go. Lots of flip flops in our future. Lets get this entity over water, then we can have a better handle on items....enjoy the ride.

Long way to go? Today is Tuesday. It could hit Sat, only 4 days.

[TheProfessor]

The 12z Euro would give me far beyond any rain I've seen before. Of course I grew up in Dallas and went to college in Ohio so I've only ever seen 5-6" of rain in a 2-3 day period.

[Tireman4]

Long way to go. Lots of flip flops in our future. Lets get this entity over water, then we can have a better handle on items....enjoy the ride.

Long way to go? Today is Tuesday. It could hit Sat, only 4 days.

In terms of MODEL runs...not time...read my whole statment, with all due respect.

[stormlover2013]

Lol man people jump the gun on models, yesterday had tx and now today la. We don’t have a center yet I think we will know for tomorrow morning what could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit it’s more east or more west tonight or in the morning.

[Tireman4]

Lol man people jump the gun on models, yesterday had tx and now today la. We don’t have a center yet I think we will know for tomorrow morning what could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit it’s more east or more west tonight or in the morning.

My sentiments exactly...GFS had one version..the Euro had another. Lots of runs to go...lots of flip flops to endure...enjoy

[StormLogic]

I just don't think the trough is deep enough on Friday to pull 92L or potential Barry northward into LA, that's why I'm still feeling like this could go as far west as Mcfaddin Beach, maybe even Anahuac, TX.

[Steve]

Lol man people jump the gun on models, yesterday had tx and now today la. We don’t have a center yet I think we will know for tomorrow morning what could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit it’s more east or more west tonight or in the morning.

While certainly true, we didn't even have anything south of 35N, and many of the models as well as the NHC picked up on the weakness that will be found in the NE Gulf this evening. Once you get inside 96 hours, most of the time the models come into pretty decent agreement. That's not always the case, and I've seen one storm in the last few years where almost all tracks were on top of each other and it didn't verify. But that's the exception to the rule in the late 20-teens. I wouldn't completely write off the mid-TX coast and even less so the SETX coast at this point. But we're probably in a situation where the models will simply refine their solutions. So while I'd say everyone from WFL to the mid-TX Coast should be on guard, you have to think the yellow zone is somewhere between the MS/AL border and maybe Galveston with the redzone probably between the Mouth of the River and Vermilion Bay.

In any event, we won't have long to find out. So this isn't one of those 2 week NC vs. FL vs. Texas model wars on the horizon.

[Nederlander]

I just don't think the trough is deep enough on Friday to pull 92L or potential Barry northward into LA, that's why I'm still feeling like this could go as far west as Mcfaddin Beach, maybe even Anahuac, TX.

This is what the AW met was saying. He didn’t give a landfall, but thought further west (middle/upper coast) was a more convincing solution. He did say the model guidance today could very well be right, but did not trust the depth of the trough nor the speed (feels like the trough could be too far east to pull it north even if it digs a little more south).

[ColdMiser123]

At hour 60, the operational Euro is almost exactly in the middle of the EPS ensemble spread.

[sphelps8681]

Lol man people jump the gun on models, yesterday had tx and now today la. We don’t have a center yet I think we will know for tomorrow morning what could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit it’s more east or more west tonight or in the morning.

While certainly true, we didn't even have anything south of 35N, and many of the models as well as the NHC picked up on the weakness that will be found in the NE Gulf this evening. Once you get inside 96 hours, most of the time the models come into pretty decent agreement. That's not always the case, and I've seen one storm in the last few years where almost all tracks were on top of each other and it didn't verify. But that's the exception to the rule in the late 20-teens. I wouldn't completely write off the mid-TX coast and even less so the SETX coast at this point. But we're probably in a situation where the models will simply refine their solutions. So while I'd say everyone from WFL to the mid-TX Coast should be on guard, you have to think the yellow zone is somewhere between the MS/AL border and maybe Galveston with the redzone probably between the Mouth of the River and Vermilion Bay.

In any event, we won't have long to find out. So this isn't one of those 2 week NC vs. FL vs. Texas model wars on the horizon.

Is the inside of 96 hours with COC or does it matter?

[Frank P]

Lol man people jump the gun on models, yesterday had tx and now today la. We don’t have a center yet I think we will know for tomorrow morning what could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit it’s more east or more west tonight or in the morning.

While certainly true, we didn't even have anything south of 35N, and many of the models as well as the NHC picked up on the weakness that will be found in the NE Gulf this evening. Once you get inside 96 hours, most of the time the models come into pretty decent agreement. That's not always the case, and I've seen one storm in the last few years where almost all tracks were on top of each other and it didn't verify. But that's the exception to the rule in the late 20-teens. I wouldn't completely write off the mid-TX coast and even less so the SETX coast at this point. But we're probably in a situation where the models will simply refine their solutions. So while I'd say everyone from WFL to the mid-TX Coast should be on guard, you have to think the yellow zone is somewhere between the MS/AL border and maybe Galveston with the redzone probably between the Mouth of the River and Vermilion Bay.

In any event, we won't have long to find out. So this isn't one of those 2 week NC vs. FL vs. Texas model wars on the horizon.

absolutely Steve....TX is certainly still in play as is NW FL Panhandle… nothing is ever in concrete with this systems, especially one that hasn't even developed yet... you just can't go by the latest model run and say... oh here's where its going, especially 3-4 days out for a storm that has yet to develop.... they seem like they always have a surprise or two for us down the road... Harvey and Michael certainly did, big surprises at that... what about Elena in 85, caused the MS coast to evacuate twice for the same storm, the list is endless... this uncertainty is one of the intrigues of storm tracking for me...

[TheProfessor]

Again, the two most important thing to watch here is where the storm forms and how strong is the Great Lakes trough. We should be getting to a point where the models are more correctly predicting the trough, although that could still change. We need to see where the surface low forms and how fast can it get vertically stacked. Those two things will determine how much the storm feels the weakness and turns up north.