ATL: BARRY - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2124
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#281 Postby Kazmit » Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:47 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

Would that mean less time over water?
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4226
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#282 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:48 pm

Kazmit wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

Would that mean less time over water?


Yeah probably a little less time over water due to the ridge over the SE US being a bit weaker.
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#283 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:48 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.


Not feeling great, but definitely better. However, for Louisiana, if the Euro verifies, they could possibly see some of their worst case scenarios emerge from the flooding side. The Morganza Spillway is around 50% opened right now, and i imagine that will have to be increased.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#284 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:49 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

A respectful caveat: considering the run-to-run spread and variability—both between ensemble members and among ensemble suites—one should not discount the potential impacts to parts of Southeast Texas. Model shifts are likely unfinished at this time. Additionally, the point of landfall may be sufficiently close to Southeast TX as to produce at least moderate, if not more severe, impacts around Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Sabine Pass, especially if 92L (prospective BARRY) manages to organise and deepen more than the preponderance of guidance suggests, which is well within the realm of possibility.
4 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 904
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#285 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:51 pm

Kazmit wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

Would that mean less time over water?


Probably by about 12 to 18 hours or so. A stronger trough will likely mean the system will stall for an extended period of time though, due to the conflicting steering flow.
0 likes   
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#286 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:52 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:
Kazmit wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

Would that mean less time over water?


Probably by about 12 to 18 hours or so. A stronger trough will likely mean the system will stall for an extended period of time though, due to the conflicting steering flow.



Which plays into Louisiana seeing the possibility of a nasty flooding event.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Nederlander
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1250
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
Location: Conroe, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#287 Postby Nederlander » Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:53 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.


This is my line of thinking as well. Especially with the model convergence today. I then saw Bernie Rayno’s feed and he is not convinced at all that the trough will pick up 92L. I don’t know what is telling him that though and why he seems to disagree with the model guidance so matter of factly, but it’ll be interesting I guess.
Last edited by Nederlander on Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Dylan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 338
Age: 30
Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 9:50 am
Location: New Orleans, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#288 Postby Dylan » Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:54 pm

3 likes   
Georges('98), Allison('01), Isidore('02), Lili('02), Frances('04) Ivan('04), Cindy('05), Katrina('05), Rita('05), Gustav('08), Isaac('12), Matthew('16), Harvey('17), Irma('17), Nate ('17), Ida ('21).

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#289 Postby artist » Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:55 pm

Tireman4 wrote:Long way to go. Lots of flip flops in our future. Lets get this entity over water, then we can have a better handle on items....enjoy the ride.


Long way to go? Today is Tuesday. It could hit Sat, only 4 days.
2 likes   

User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3506
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#290 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:57 pm

The 12z Euro would give me far beyond any rain I've seen before. Of course I grew up in Dallas and went to college in Ohio so I've only ever seen 5-6" of rain in a 2-3 day period.
2 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5853
Age: 59
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#291 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:57 pm

artist wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:Long way to go. Lots of flip flops in our future. Lets get this entity over water, then we can have a better handle on items....enjoy the ride.


Long way to go? Today is Tuesday. It could hit Sat, only 4 days.



In terms of MODEL runs...not time...read my whole statment, with all due respect. :)
1 likes   

stormlover2013

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#292 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:00 pm

Lol man people jump the gun on models, yesterday had tx and now today la. We don’t have a center yet I think we will know for tomorrow morning what could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit it’s more east or more west tonight or in the morning.
6 likes   

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5853
Age: 59
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#293 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:01 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Lol man people jump the gun on models, yesterday had tx and now today la. We don’t have a center yet I think we will know for tomorrow morning what could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit it’s more east or more west tonight or in the morning.



My sentiments exactly...GFS had one version..the Euro had another. Lots of runs to go...lots of flip flops to endure...enjoy :D
2 likes   

User avatar
StormLogic
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 201
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:58 am
Location: Beaumont

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#294 Postby StormLogic » Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:04 pm

I just don't think the trough is deep enough on Friday to pull 92L or potential Barry northward into LA, that's why I'm still feeling like this could go as far west as Mcfaddin Beach, maybe even Anahuac, TX.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#295 Postby Steve » Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:11 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Lol man people jump the gun on models, yesterday had tx and now today la. We don’t have a center yet I think we will know for tomorrow morning what could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit it’s more east or more west tonight or in the morning.


While certainly true, we didn't even have anything south of 35N, and many of the models as well as the NHC picked up on the weakness that will be found in the NE Gulf this evening. Once you get inside 96 hours, most of the time the models come into pretty decent agreement. That's not always the case, and I've seen one storm in the last few years where almost all tracks were on top of each other and it didn't verify. But that's the exception to the rule in the late 20-teens. I wouldn't completely write off the mid-TX coast and even less so the SETX coast at this point. But we're probably in a situation where the models will simply refine their solutions. So while I'd say everyone from WFL to the mid-TX Coast should be on guard, you have to think the yellow zone is somewhere between the MS/AL border and maybe Galveston with the redzone probably between the Mouth of the River and Vermilion Bay.

In any event, we won't have long to find out. So this isn't one of those 2 week NC vs. FL vs. Texas model wars on the horizon.
4 likes   

Nederlander
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1250
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
Location: Conroe, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#296 Postby Nederlander » Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:11 pm

StormLogic wrote:I just don't think the trough is deep enough on Friday to pull 92L or potential Barry northward into LA, that's why I'm still feeling like this could go as far west as Mcfaddin Beach, maybe even Anahuac, TX.


This is what the AW met was saying. He didn’t give a landfall, but thought further west (middle/upper coast) was a more convincing solution. He did say the model guidance today could very well be right, but did not trust the depth of the trough nor the speed (feels like the trough could be too far east to pull it north even if it digs a little more south).
3 likes   

User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 904
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#297 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:16 pm

At hour 60, the operational Euro is almost exactly in the middle of the EPS ensemble spread.
1 likes   
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science

sphelps8681
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 785
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:37 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#298 Postby sphelps8681 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:18 pm

Steve wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:Lol man people jump the gun on models, yesterday had tx and now today la. We don’t have a center yet I think we will know for tomorrow morning what could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit it’s more east or more west tonight or in the morning.


While certainly true, we didn't even have anything south of 35N, and many of the models as well as the NHC picked up on the weakness that will be found in the NE Gulf this evening. Once you get inside 96 hours, most of the time the models come into pretty decent agreement. That's not always the case, and I've seen one storm in the last few years where almost all tracks were on top of each other and it didn't verify. But that's the exception to the rule in the late 20-teens. I wouldn't completely write off the mid-TX coast and even less so the SETX coast at this point. But we're probably in a situation where the models will simply refine their solutions. So while I'd say everyone from WFL to the mid-TX Coast should be on guard, you have to think the yellow zone is somewhere between the MS/AL border and maybe Galveston with the redzone probably between the Mouth of the River and Vermilion Bay.

In any event, we won't have long to find out. So this isn't one of those 2 week NC vs. FL vs. Texas model wars on the horizon.


Is the inside of 96 hours with COC or does it matter?
1 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#299 Postby Frank P » Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:27 pm

Steve wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:Lol man people jump the gun on models, yesterday had tx and now today la. We don’t have a center yet I think we will know for tomorrow morning what could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit it’s more east or more west tonight or in the morning.


While certainly true, we didn't even have anything south of 35N, and many of the models as well as the NHC picked up on the weakness that will be found in the NE Gulf this evening. Once you get inside 96 hours, most of the time the models come into pretty decent agreement. That's not always the case, and I've seen one storm in the last few years where almost all tracks were on top of each other and it didn't verify. But that's the exception to the rule in the late 20-teens. I wouldn't completely write off the mid-TX coast and even less so the SETX coast at this point. But we're probably in a situation where the models will simply refine their solutions. So while I'd say everyone from WFL to the mid-TX Coast should be on guard, you have to think the yellow zone is somewhere between the MS/AL border and maybe Galveston with the redzone probably between the Mouth of the River and Vermilion Bay.

In any event, we won't have long to find out. So this isn't one of those 2 week NC vs. FL vs. Texas model wars on the horizon.


absolutely Steve....TX is certainly still in play as is NW FL Panhandle… nothing is ever in concrete with this systems, especially one that hasn't even developed yet... you just can't go by the latest model run and say... oh here's where its going, especially 3-4 days out for a storm that has yet to develop.... they seem like they always have a surprise or two for us down the road... Harvey and Michael certainly did, big surprises at that... what about Elena in 85, caused the MS coast to evacuate twice for the same storm, the list is endless... this uncertainty is one of the intrigues of storm tracking for me...
Last edited by Frank P on Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3506
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#300 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:28 pm

Again, the two most important thing to watch here is where the storm forms and how strong is the Great Lakes trough. We should be getting to a point where the models are more correctly predicting the trough, although that could still change. We need to see where the surface low forms and how fast can it get vertically stacked. Those two things will determine how much the storm feels the weakness and turns up north.
3 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests