ATL: BARRY - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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- Cataegis96
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
This 0z suite has been a bit unnerving to say the least. RI is certainly not out of the question. HWRF and HMON so far have been consistently 5 mb stronger than previous run at each respective time step. A stronger storm (especially earlier on) should allow for the storm to feel more of the upper level steering and thus continue on a heading with a more westerly component.
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Lead Meteorologist Mars, Inc
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Looks like the 0z HWRF is doubling-down on its 18z run. 8mb stronger at 66 hours than the 18z.
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This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Noted that it's the most western of the models showing landfall and goes up toward Amarillo and even the OK Panhandle at 6 days. Nothing else is that far west. Interesting. I seriously need to go to bed, but I guess I'm going to geek it until the Euro. Edit - gets worse for Cameron (Orange/Jefferson?) 950's and looking to come up in the 940's toward Cameron Parish.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=78
HMON at 75 hours that it's been stuck on is making a run for Franklin.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=75
HWRF is blowing it up. No surprise there as its intensity skills haven't been as good as its 3 days in track skills. It's 969mb at about 27.9 / 92.2 and hooking a bit north for now at 66 hours.
Last edited by Steve on Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
0z HMON landfall at 979mb near Grand Isle. Mid-Cat 1 strength.
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This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
MississippiWx wrote:0z HMON landfall at 979mb near Grand Isle. Mid-Cat 1 strength.
Saturday morning (Cocodrie/Dulac maybe a hair over from Grand Isle - Point au Chenes?) . All the bad weather is Lafourche, Terrebonne, St. Charles, Jefferson, Assumption, eastern St. Mary, St. James and St. John.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=81
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
What time does the EURO run? I thought it was around midnight and trying to stay up but I am definitely hoping to go to bed soon!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:Starts at 12:45
12 minutes and then about 20 since this will be early in the run. As much as I need sleep, I'll probably wake up to catch the 6z's. Haha
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
0z HWRF with a landfall about 40 miles east of 18z run and a few millibars weaker at 948mb. Still a major hurricane. It hits 93W and moves due north until landfall (500mb ridge).
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This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
I hope this isn't a situation where the trends continue further and further west, and we have a strong hurricane headed for the mid-TX coastline.
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- Cataegis96
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Euro is rolling.
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- ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Trough is less amplified to the northeast, ridge is building eastward quicker, and SLP placement is a good bit west of 12z. A tad stronger.
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B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
to 24 hours, the circulation at 500mb is south of Mobile Bay at about 27.7N / 88W or so, and the center at 850mb is still a bit behind it say maybe like 28.3 / 88 ish? Obviously that circulation has to still move a bit south to catch the 500mb. I didn't look up higher than that for 24 hours.
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- Cataegis96
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Looks a bit stronger and a bit further west than 12z at 54 hours.
Last edited by Cataegis96 on Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
West by quite a bit relative to 12z now at hour 66, a few mb stronger.
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B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
EC at 48 shows Barry getting organized. 500mb is about 27.9 / 89.8 and 1000mb (lower resolution so it's probably lower than that). A little bit west of due south of the mouth of the MS River.
500mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=48
sea level
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=48
Looks mostly stacked to me. That's valid for 7pm Thursday night, so we have an EU benchmark from 48 hours out to watch for. Looks also like it could get going here.
500mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=48
sea level
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=48
Looks mostly stacked to me. That's valid for 7pm Thursday night, so we have an EU benchmark from 48 hours out to watch for. Looks also like it could get going here.
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