ATL: BARRY - Models

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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#481 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:02 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#482 Postby Tailspin » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:07 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#483 Postby Cataegis96 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:10 am

This 0z suite has been a bit unnerving to say the least. RI is certainly not out of the question. HWRF and HMON so far have been consistently 5 mb stronger than previous run at each respective time step. A stronger storm (especially earlier on) should allow for the storm to feel more of the upper level steering and thus continue on a heading with a more westerly component.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#484 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:17 am

Looks like the 0z HWRF is doubling-down on its 18z run. 8mb stronger at 66 hours than the 18z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#485 Postby Steve » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:19 am



Noted that it's the most western of the models showing landfall and goes up toward Amarillo and even the OK Panhandle at 6 days. Nothing else is that far west. Interesting. I seriously need to go to bed, but I guess I'm going to geek it until the Euro. Edit - gets worse for Cameron (Orange/Jefferson?) 950's and looking to come up in the 940's toward Cameron Parish.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=78

HMON at 75 hours that it's been stuck on is making a run for Franklin.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=75

HWRF is blowing it up. No surprise there as its intensity skills haven't been as good as its 3 days in track skills. It's 969mb at about 27.9 / 92.2 and hooking a bit north for now at 66 hours.
Last edited by Steve on Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#486 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:21 am

0z HMON landfall at 979mb near Grand Isle. Mid-Cat 1 strength.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#487 Postby Steve » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:27 am

MississippiWx wrote:0z HMON landfall at 979mb near Grand Isle. Mid-Cat 1 strength.


Saturday morning (Cocodrie/Dulac maybe a hair over from Grand Isle - Point au Chenes?) . All the bad weather is Lafourche, Terrebonne, St. Charles, Jefferson, Assumption, eastern St. Mary, St. James and St. John.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=81
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#488 Postby smw1981 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:27 am

What time does the EURO run? I thought it was around midnight and trying to stay up but I am definitely hoping to go to bed soon!
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#489 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:28 am

Starts at 12:45
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#490 Postby Steve » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:34 am

stormlover2013 wrote:Starts at 12:45


12 minutes and then about 20 since this will be early in the run. As much as I need sleep, I'll probably wake up to catch the 6z's. Haha
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#491 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:35 am

0z HWRF with a landfall about 40 miles east of 18z run and a few millibars weaker at 948mb. Still a major hurricane. It hits 93W and moves due north until landfall (500mb ridge).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#492 Postby Hurricane Mike » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:36 am

I hope this isn't a situation where the trends continue further and further west, and we have a strong hurricane headed for the mid-TX coastline.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#493 Postby Cataegis96 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:49 am

Euro is rolling.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#494 Postby smw1981 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:57 am

What does it show? :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#495 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:01 am

Trough is less amplified to the northeast, ridge is building eastward quicker, and SLP placement is a good bit west of 12z. A tad stronger.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#496 Postby Steve » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:01 am

to 24 hours, the circulation at 500mb is south of Mobile Bay at about 27.7N / 88W or so, and the center at 850mb is still a bit behind it say maybe like 28.3 / 88 ish? Obviously that circulation has to still move a bit south to catch the 500mb. I didn't look up higher than that for 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#497 Postby Cataegis96 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:03 am

Looks a bit stronger and a bit further west than 12z at 54 hours.
Last edited by Cataegis96 on Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#498 Postby USTropics » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:03 am

00-48 hour loop for 00z ECMWF:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#499 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:07 am

West by quite a bit relative to 12z now at hour 66, a few mb stronger.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#500 Postby Steve » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:07 am

EC at 48 shows Barry getting organized. 500mb is about 27.9 / 89.8 and 1000mb (lower resolution so it's probably lower than that). A little bit west of due south of the mouth of the MS River.

500mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=48

sea level
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=48

Looks mostly stacked to me. That's valid for 7pm Thursday night, so we have an EU benchmark from 48 hours out to watch for. Looks also like it could get going here.
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