ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TexasF6]

I checked the QPF from the crazy Canadian? 41in of rain for middle Louisiana and Barry stalls inland. Not good. But it is the Canadian.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1148971142729883649

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing any reports of surface winds over about 10 kts out there. Certainly not organizing yet.

[gfsperpendicular]

WV suggests some kind of dual outflow? There's also a ULL over Texas coast which seems to be helping with the poleward channel?

[MississippiWx]

Looks like the mid-level center is fully taking over. Circulation is tightening.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I'm not seeing any reports of surface winds over about 10 kts out there. Certainly not organizing yet.

http://wxman57.com/images/92Ld.JPG

Personally, based on satellite presentation, I don't think this makes TD until sometime early tomorrow morning. Not that it matters, even 48 hours over the Gulf is enough, as we have all seen.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV/status/1148971892130422784

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm not seeing any reports of surface winds over about 10 kts out there. Certainly not organizing yet.

To be fair, the image you showed doesn't really have any observations in the convective squalls. I guess we'll see what recon finds in a few hours.

[TheStormExpert]

Has that look that once it gets well established all engines are a go!

Hopefully folks in SE Coastal Texas and Louisiana are getting prepared for a hurricane this weekend. Be safe you all!

[Nimbus]

Not a good scenario at all if this system is stacking as well as it appears to be on satellite.
Models this evening should have a better initialization.

[MississippiWx]

https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV/status/1148971892130422784

Well, that's terrifying.

[LeonardRay]

If the center is identified as being south of the current best track, that will have major impacts on the end game of where this goes. If it forms and moves farther south than predicted could miss the trough all together and barrel due west

[TheStormExpert]

I'm not seeing any reports of surface winds over about 10 kts out there. Certainly not organizing yet.

http://wxman57.com/images/92Ld.JPG

I agree it doesn’t look like much now but it has THAT look.

I’ve noticed you’re not impressed with future Barry or this season as a whole, why is that?

[Aric Dunn]

Center appesrs to be coming together rather quickly now.. recon will get out there right at the perfect time .

[wxman57]

One thing that looks really odd in the NHC's forecast is that it is still predicted to be a hurricane 12 hours after landfall. That's quite unlikely unless it hits as a Cat 4-5. Typical weakening is about half wind speed in 11-12 hrs.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm not seeing any reports of surface winds over about 10 kts out there. Certainly not organizing yet.

http://wxman57.com/images/92Ld.JPG

Personally, based on satellite presentation, I don't think this makes TD until sometime early tomorrow morning. Not that it matters, even 48 hours over the Gulf is enough, as we have all seen.

Yep, Harvey and Michael over the past two seasons showed us it doesn’t take much time to see a quick ramp up in intensity in the Gulf during the hurricane season if conditions are conducive. Be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.

[TexasF6]

NAM plows the storm into the middle Texas coast. Interesting to see it turn the band that flooded Nola into a storm.

[tropicwatch]

Center appesrs to be coming together rather quickly now.. recon will get out there right at the perfect time .

Looks like they changed the takeoff time to noon central time.

[StormLogic]

If the center is identified as being south of the current best track, that will have major impacts on the end game of where this goes. If it forms and moves farther south than predicted could miss the trough all together and barrel due west

NAM 12k is on to this scenario.

[plasticup]

https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV/status/1148971892130422784

And the models showing a stalled storm would be catastrophic for NOLA. If we had a Harvey-type stall it would be much worse than Houston saw two years ago.