ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
I checked the QPF from the crazy Canadian? 41in of rain for middle Louisiana and Barry stalls inland. Not good. But it is the Canadian.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
I'm not seeing any reports of surface winds over about 10 kts out there. Certainly not organizing yet.

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- gfsperpendicular
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
WV suggests some kind of dual outflow? There's also a ULL over Texas coast which seems to be helping with the poleward channel?
Last edited by gfsperpendicular on Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
Looks like the mid-level center is fully taking over. Circulation is tightening.


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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any reports of surface winds over about 10 kts out there. Certainly not organizing yet.
http://wxman57.com/images/92Ld.JPG
Personally, based on satellite presentation, I don't think this makes TD until sometime early tomorrow morning. Not that it matters, even 48 hours over the Gulf is enough, as we have all seen.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any reports of surface winds over about 10 kts out there. Certainly not organizing yet.
To be fair, the image you showed doesn't really have any observations in the convective squalls. I guess we'll see what recon finds in a few hours.
Last edited by SouthDadeFish on Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
Has that look that once it gets well established all engines are a go!
Hopefully folks in SE Coastal Texas and Louisiana are getting prepared for a hurricane this weekend. Be safe you all!

Hopefully folks in SE Coastal Texas and Louisiana are getting prepared for a hurricane this weekend. Be safe you all!
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
Not a good scenario at all if this system is stacking as well as it appears to be on satellite.
Models this evening should have a better initialization.
Models this evening should have a better initialization.
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV/status/1148971892130422784
Well, that's terrifying.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
If the center is identified as being south of the current best track, that will have major impacts on the end game of where this goes. If it forms and moves farther south than predicted could miss the trough all together and barrel due west
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any reports of surface winds over about 10 kts out there. Certainly not organizing yet.
http://wxman57.com/images/92Ld.JPG
I agree it doesn’t look like much now but it has THAT look.
I’ve noticed you’re not impressed with future Barry or this season as a whole, why is that?
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
Center appesrs to be coming together rather quickly now.. recon will get out there right at the perfect time .
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
One thing that looks really odd in the NHC's forecast is that it is still predicted to be a hurricane 12 hours after landfall. That's quite unlikely unless it hits as a Cat 4-5. Typical weakening is about half wind speed in 11-12 hrs.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
Hurricane Andrew wrote:wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any reports of surface winds over about 10 kts out there. Certainly not organizing yet.
http://wxman57.com/images/92Ld.JPG
Personally, based on satellite presentation, I don't think this makes TD until sometime early tomorrow morning. Not that it matters, even 48 hours over the Gulf is enough, as we have all seen.
Yep, Harvey and Michael over the past two seasons showed us it doesn’t take much time to see a quick ramp up in intensity in the Gulf during the hurricane season if conditions are conducive. Be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
NAM plows the storm into the middle Texas coast. Interesting to see it turn the band that flooded Nola into a storm.
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Center appesrs to be coming together rather quickly now.. recon will get out there right at the perfect time .
Looks like they changed the takeoff time to noon central time.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
LeonardRay wrote:If the center is identified as being south of the current best track, that will have major impacts on the end game of where this goes. If it forms and moves farther south than predicted could miss the trough all together and barrel due west
NAM 12k is on to this scenario.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV/status/1148971892130422784
And the models showing a stalled storm would be catastrophic for NOLA. If we had a Harvey-type stall it would be much worse than Houston saw two years ago.
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