ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Way off topic..

But I remember a time being a small kid in Sarasota Florida and we really did not have much of a heads up on when these were coming, where they were going. The weather channel and cable TV wasn't around then and generally you had to wait for the newspaper the next day to get an update..IF they deemed it was important enough. All you generally knew is a storm was forming, and you literally had to keep an eye on the Barometric pressure gauge

Now newspapers have disappeared and we get info every second from the NOAA

and we still dont know where its going or how strong it will be

But you know more about all that than you would have 19 years ago

nhc is dead-on within 72 hours, the current error rates don't do them justice as its a 5-year average....if you are in the middle of the cone at 72h you better prepare for landfall and everything that comes with it..happy hurricane hunting folks

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1149010784539881473

[StormLogic]

and we still dont know where its going or how strong it will be

But you know more about all that than you would have 19 years ago

nhc is dead-on within 72 hours, the current error rates don't do them justice as its a 5-year average....if you are in the middle of the cone at 72h you better prepare for landfall and everything that comes with it..happy hurricane hunting folks

more like dead-on in 24hrs xD

[Aric Dunn]

Probably enough orginization by the time recon leaves for an upgrade.

[NDG]

Probably enough orginization by the time recon leaves for an upgrade.

I don't see that happening unless it spends a good 4-5 hours in the area and a more defined LLC forms closer to the MLC.

[wxman57]

I see nothing in the surface obs to suggest a well-defined LLC, and there are a lot of obs out there. Red crosshairs are at the 18Z NHC estimated position of 28.3N / 86.7W. I don't see anything there. Maybe a little swirl just west of there. No upgrade today. Of course, they did name Andrea...

[MississippiWx]

Winds are very light so far, but recon hasn't sampled any thunderstorms either. Need another pass from recon from SW to NE (or vice versa) to determine for sure what we have. As of now, nothing really warrants an upgrade off that pass alone.

[CyclonicFury]

Doesn't look classifiable yet. Should gradually develop a more defined LLC today and into tonight.

[wxman57]

Winds are very light so far, but recon hasn't sampled any thunderstorms either. Need another pass from recon from SW to NE (or vice versa) to determine for sure what we have. As of now, nothing really warrants an upgrade off that pass alone.

Broad, very weak low. Winds 5-10 kts. Near around 28.9N / 87.6W. Just as surface obs through the area indicate.

[SoupBone]

Winds are very light so far, but recon hasn't sampled any thunderstorms either. Need another pass from recon from SW to NE (or vice versa) to determine for sure what we have. As of now, nothing really warrants an upgrade off that pass alone.

Broad, very weak low. Winds 5-10 kts. Near around 28.9N / 87.6W. Just as surface obs through the area indicate.

is this where they initialized the Euro?

[tolakram]

On the longer loop I see what could be an LLC being pulled under the lower blob of convection. If this was rotating around a larger center movement should have been NW, not west. But it's just an amateur observation.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=30&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=4438.560546875&y=5332.66845703125

[jasons2k]

Yes, this is still a disorganized mess and not stacked. Gonna be tonight probably before an upgrade.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The circulation looks like its oval NW to SE

[TexasF6]

You can see the center getting its act together well on the particle size overlay here:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Pretty cool overlays on this site!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Definitely looking better organized. Still a way to go. I'm guessing an upgrade in the am.

[cycloneye]

Winds are very light so far, but recon hasn't sampled any thunderstorms either. Need another pass from recon from SW to NE (or vice versa) to determine for sure what we have. As of now, nothing really warrants an upgrade off that pass alone.

They are turning.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Winds are very light so far, but recon hasn't sampled any thunderstorms either. Need another pass from recon from SW to NE (or vice versa) to determine for sure what we have. As of now, nothing really warrants an upgrade off that pass alone.

They are turning.

https://i.imgur.com/Rj7ybYe.png

I believe a center is taking shape there in the direction they are heading. Mentioned this earlier today. We shall see.

[ColdMiser123]

Winds are very light so far, but recon hasn't sampled any thunderstorms either. Need another pass from recon from SW to NE (or vice versa) to determine for sure what we have. As of now, nothing really warrants an upgrade off that pass alone.

They are turning.

https://i.imgur.com/Rj7ybYe.png

Ideally another pass over where the MLC is at ~27.8 N/~86.5 W to get a better idea if there is any kind of localized surface wind shift or not.

[cycloneye]

Going further down in latitude.

[Aric Dunn]

They are likely seeing something. Where they are has the largest potential energy could be some better low level convergence dow there.. we shall see.