ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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jlauderdal
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#481 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:46 pm

StormPyrate wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:

Way off topic..

But I remember a time being a small kid in Sarasota Florida and we really did not have much of a heads up on when these were coming, where they were going. The weather channel and cable TV wasn't around then and generally you had to wait for the newspaper the next day to get an update..IF they deemed it was important enough. All you generally knew is a storm was forming, and you literally had to keep an eye on the Barometric pressure gauge :eek:

Now newspapers have disappeared and we get info every second from the NOAA 8-)
and we still dont know where its going or how strong it will be :roll:

But you know more about all that than you would have 19 years ago
nhc is dead-on within 72 hours, the current error rates don't do them justice as its a 5-year average....if you are in the middle of the cone at 72h you better prepare for landfall and everything that comes with it..happy hurricane hunting folks
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#482 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:46 pm

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#483 Postby StormLogic » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:48 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
StormPyrate wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:and we still dont know where its going or how strong it will be :roll:

But you know more about all that than you would have 19 years ago
nhc is dead-on within 72 hours, the current error rates don't do them justice as its a 5-year average....if you are in the middle of the cone at 72h you better prepare for landfall and everything that comes with it..happy hurricane hunting folks

more like dead-on in 24hrs xD
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#484 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:50 pm

Probably enough orginization by the time recon leaves for an upgrade.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#485 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:52 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Probably enough orginization by the time recon leaves for an upgrade.


I don't see that happening unless it spends a good 4-5 hours in the area and a more defined LLC forms closer to the MLC.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#486 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:55 pm

I see nothing in the surface obs to suggest a well-defined LLC, and there are a lot of obs out there. Red crosshairs are at the 18Z NHC estimated position of 28.3N / 86.7W. I don't see anything there. Maybe a little swirl just west of there. No upgrade today. Of course, they did name Andrea...

Image
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#487 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:58 pm

Winds are very light so far, but recon hasn't sampled any thunderstorms either. Need another pass from recon from SW to NE (or vice versa) to determine for sure what we have. As of now, nothing really warrants an upgrade off that pass alone.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#488 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:01 pm

Doesn't look classifiable yet. Should gradually develop a more defined LLC today and into tonight.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#489 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:05 pm

MississippiWx wrote:Winds are very light so far, but recon hasn't sampled any thunderstorms either. Need another pass from recon from SW to NE (or vice versa) to determine for sure what we have. As of now, nothing really warrants an upgrade off that pass alone.


Broad, very weak low. Winds 5-10 kts. Near around 28.9N / 87.6W. Just as surface obs through the area indicate.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#490 Postby SoupBone » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:Winds are very light so far, but recon hasn't sampled any thunderstorms either. Need another pass from recon from SW to NE (or vice versa) to determine for sure what we have. As of now, nothing really warrants an upgrade off that pass alone.


Broad, very weak low. Winds 5-10 kts. Near around 28.9N / 87.6W. Just as surface obs through the area indicate.



is this where they initialized the Euro?
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#491 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:11 pm

On the longer loop I see what could be an LLC being pulled under the lower blob of convection. If this was rotating around a larger center movement should have been NW, not west. But it's just an amateur observation.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=30&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=4438.560546875&y=5332.66845703125
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#492 Postby jasons2k » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:13 pm

Yes, this is still a disorganized mess and not stacked. Gonna be tonight probably before an upgrade.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#493 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:16 pm

The circulation looks like its oval NW to SE
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#494 Postby TexasF6 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:17 pm

You can see the center getting its act together well on the particle size overlay here:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Pretty cool overlays on this site!!!
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#495 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:20 pm

Definitely looking better organized. Still a way to go. I'm guessing an upgrade in the am.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#496 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:23 pm

MississippiWx wrote:Winds are very light so far, but recon hasn't sampled any thunderstorms either. Need another pass from recon from SW to NE (or vice versa) to determine for sure what we have. As of now, nothing really warrants an upgrade off that pass alone.


They are turning.

Image
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#497 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:Winds are very light so far, but recon hasn't sampled any thunderstorms either. Need another pass from recon from SW to NE (or vice versa) to determine for sure what we have. As of now, nothing really warrants an upgrade off that pass alone.


They are turning.

https://i.imgur.com/Rj7ybYe.png


I believe a center is taking shape there in the direction they are heading. Mentioned this earlier today. We shall see. 8-)
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#498 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:Winds are very light so far, but recon hasn't sampled any thunderstorms either. Need another pass from recon from SW to NE (or vice versa) to determine for sure what we have. As of now, nothing really warrants an upgrade off that pass alone.


They are turning.

https://i.imgur.com/Rj7ybYe.png


Ideally another pass over where the MLC is at ~27.8 N/~86.5 W to get a better idea if there is any kind of localized surface wind shift or not.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#499 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:50 pm

Going further down in latitude.

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#500 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:53 pm

They are likely seeing something. Where they are has the largest potential energy could be some better low level convergence dow there.. we shall see.
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