ATL: BARRY - Models

[PTrackerLA]

18z Euro is nearly identical to the NHC track... just a touch east of it. 18z GFS had a fairly significant shift west. I would expect a slight shift east at best for the 11pm update. Unfortunately the 18z Euro clobbers Lafayette with the 20"+ stripe so with hurricane gusting south winds that would be a whole lot worse than our August 2016 20"+ event. Not good.

[sphelps8681]

When will the data from the planes be available on the models?

[Nederlander]

When will the data from the planes be available on the models?

0z runs

[Audrey2Katrina]

It's funny how times have changed over the years. I remember when the GFDL was considered to use cutting-edge technology (at the time). It was almost freaky with TD10/then-Katrina, the only model showing the SW hook over Florida. It was voodoo-like at the time.

Then, somehow, it became trash.

I'm no pro-met, by any means; but have followed these forces of nature since Hurricane Audrey which I remember quite well. The GFDL was ALWAYS more reliable as a model than many of those being posted here. I'll stick with the NHC for my part. No slight intended, just defending the GFDL which I always thought was pretty close.
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A2K

[w5yne]

I have been on this forum for a while and find it great how much you guys put into what you do, that said the NHC are normally on the ball with storm tracks

[jlauderdal]

I have been on this forum for a while and find it great how much you guys put into what you do, that said the NHC are normally on the ball with storm tracks

NHC is locked in on the track at 3 days out, if you are on the line or 30 miles either side except to take the eyewall..they have been that good the last couple of years

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[wxman57]

I have been on this forum for a while and find it great how much you guys put into what you do, that said the NHC are normally on the ball with storm tracks

NHC is locked in on the track at 3 days out, if you are on the line or 30 miles either side except to take the eyewall..they have been that good the last couple of years

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

This is not a very clear-cut situation. I wouldn't be surprised if it moves inland as far east as south of New Orleans, as the "legacy-GFS" predicts. NHC track may be east of Vermilion Bay by morning if the models don't shift significantly west.

[BRweather]

I would not even think about using the UKMET or NAM. They are doing a terrible job at depicting the frontal boundary pushing south. That frontal boundary is going to play a big role in trying to steer the system north.

[Aric Dunn]

I would not even think about using the UKMET or NAM. They are doing a terrible job at depicting the frontal boundary pushing south. That frontal boundary is going to play a big role in trying to steer the system north.

The NAM yes.. Poor choice not to pay attention to the UKMET.

[gatorcane]

Legacy GFS:

[Nederlander]

Legacy GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/kgrtQc7X/gfs-legacy-ir-watl-13.png

It would need to start gaining latitude now for that to verify

[w5yne]

I have been on this forum for a while and find it great how much you guys put into what you do, that said the NHC are normally on the ball with storm tracks

NHC is locked in on the track at 3 days out, if you are on the line or 30 miles either side except to take the eyewall..they have been that good the last couple of years

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Eye is on track to pass right over my house as of now

[Aric Dunn]

Legacy GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/kgrtQc7X/gfs-legacy-ir-watl-13.png

we can essentially toss out the legacy GFS.. it has it moving wnw from current position when it is dropping wsw to sw ..

[BRweather]

I would not even think about using the UKMET or NAM. They are doing a terrible job at depicting the frontal boundary pushing south. That frontal boundary is going to play a big role in trying to steer the system north.

The NAM yes.. Poor choice not to pay attention to the UKMET.

The UKMET QPF totals were way too low implying to me the front is way too weak

[SoupBone]

I would not even think about using the UKMET or NAM. They are doing a terrible job at depicting the frontal boundary pushing south. That frontal boundary is going to play a big role in trying to steer the system north.

The NAM yes.. Poor choice not to pay attention to the UKMET.

Aric, could you explain why?

[Aric Dunn]

I would not even think about using the UKMET or NAM. They are doing a terrible job at depicting the frontal boundary pushing south. That frontal boundary is going to play a big role in trying to steer the system north.

The NAM yes.. Poor choice not to pay attention to the UKMET.

Aric, could you explain why?

UKMET is one of the most reliable models.. besides florence last year it often sniffs out ridge strength. so we are cutting hairs here. The last 3 runs of the ukmet has reliably had the ridge strength correct and the extent.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the NAM out through 9 hours is weaker and has shifted east.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like the NAM out through 9 hours is weaker and has shifted east.

It also has the center of the storm in the spot it is in now, or a little north of that, at hour 15. It appears to be a bad initialization.

[Cataegis96]

Looks like the NAM out through 9 hours is weaker and has shifted east.

Seems like it initialized a bit too far north.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the NAM out through 9 hours is weaker and has shifted east.

it also shows the center reforming 150 miles to the SW tomorrow...