ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[txwatcher91]

Looks in bad shape. dry air - and sinking south.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Yeah there are some dry patches, but look at what GCANE has been posting the last couple of days with the theta e ridges and showing where there are very high CAPE values. Most mets look at that stuff anyway for forecasting, but he posts the most about it on the forum and stays on top of it. You can sometimes look at what he posts and anticipate when a system is going to get juiced or fade back based on moistures layers. It's mostly over my head, but there is enough I have come to understand to look at what he puts up.

The current environment per 18z gfs is actually quite favorable from an RH perspective right now, very little dry air. Cape is not a good measure especially when there is so much dry air aloft like what is modeled tomorrow, especially in a TC. It will cause major issues when it’s trying to establish an inner core.



But by tomorrow it’s going to get much more unfavorable with plenty of dry air intrusion if the GFS is correct.


Even at landfall there is a lot of dry air for it to contend with. This is NOT a favorable pattern for RI especially if shear is affecting this system. That’s likely why the GFS has been much weaker all along vs the Euro and UK.

[hohnywx]

Weaker and farther east on the latest advisory, as expected. Time for bed. Alarm set for 4am.

Not true. From the 11 PM discussion:

Additional strengthening is likely beyond the 48-hour point and the time it makes landfall, which is predicted to occur in a little less than 3 days.

[txwatcher91]

I highly doubt this makes Hurricane status. Too much dry air tomorrow, inner core is struggling to organize and shear plus proximity to land will hold this one down. Latest ICON is only a moderate TS. Main impact imo is likely to be the rain/flooding.

[floridasun78]

be good news if gfs right we only see 50mph ts not hurr but flood will still issue

[Steve]

I highly doubt this makes Hurricane status. Too much dry air tomorrow, inner core is struggling to organize and shear plus proximity to land will hold this one down. Latest ICON is only a moderate TS. Main impact imo is likely to be the rain/flooding.

It looks to be ahead of what was progged anyway even though the organization manifested more Friday into Saturday in runs from the last couple of days. Expert said the same thing yesterday, and I thing it's going to be close either way and probably wouldn't actually put money on it one way or the other.

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1149153700557934592

I remember Isaac, it sucked for Baton Rouge, but not quite as bad as Gustav (08).

[pcolaman]

Right now this storm looks very poor. From the looks on radar its losing latitude fast. Also the dry air will effect the storm greatly at the moment. im wondering if the models have to do a reset and start over with the forcast track.
Could it go against all models and head further south then stall or fall apart due to dry air? Guess it will be a wait and see game now. Just a thought

[BRweather]

This thing is a mess and the 00z HRRR showing it will continue to be a mess for the next 36 hours.

[sphelps8681]

Seems funny that I never heard once about dry air. Did this just happen all of sudden. Been reading most of all the posts and never air of dry air instrusion.

[txwatcher91]

I highly doubt this makes Hurricane status. Too much dry air tomorrow, inner core is struggling to organize and shear plus proximity to land will hold this one down. Latest ICON is only a moderate TS. Main impact imo is likely to be the rain/flooding.

It looks to be ahead of what was progged anyway even though the organization manifested more Friday into Saturday in runs from the last couple of days. Expert said the same thing yesterday, and I thing it's going to be close either way and probably wouldn't actually put money on it one way or the other.

It looks very rough right now with the best RH values it’s going to see. Tomorrow mid level dry air is going to penetrate the core on the N to NW sides. It’s hard for a TC to form or strengthen with dry air mixing in like the GFS is showing. Btw the 00z icon and gfs are significantly weaker than prior runs. People have been hyping the RI potential way too much because of the Euro and UK imo. The Fv3 (current gfs) did quite well with intensity last year and that looks to hold true here also. The bigger concern for me is the fire hose of torrential rains aimed at Louisiana which could cause historic flooding. That’s the big story with this one imo.

[MississippiWx]

Pretty normal convective lull for a weak system. This is the diurnal minimum phase. Should be some convection blow up near the center overnight into the morning. Dry air is not inhibiting this at the moment.

[txwatcher91]

Seems funny that I never heard once about dry air. Did this just happen all of sudden. Been reading most of all the posts and never air of dry air instrusion.

It’s been on the GFS for awhile now but it’s been largely ignored. It has a pretty big effect especially on developing TC’s making it hard to consolidate an inner core and sustain convection. Tomorrow is when the dry air is forecast to be more of an issue, it’s actually not that bad tonight.

[psyclone]

to the extent the system looks a mess...it is because it is a formative cyclone without sufficient organization to even meet the threshold of a depression...yet. It doesn't deserve to look anything other than a mess at this juncture. but it has done a decent job of organizing today. if it can burst some decent convection tonight things could be quite a bit different in 12 to 24 hours. Tropical disturbances, depressions and tropical storms tend to be mostly rain threats anyway and that issue is enroute and that threat is significant.

[ThetaE]

Looks in bad shape. dry air - and sinking south.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Yeah there are some dry patches, but look at what GCANE has been posting the last couple of days with the theta e ridges and showing where there are very high CAPE values. Most mets look at that stuff anyway for forecasting, but he posts the most about it on the forum and stays on top of it. You can sometimes look at what he posts and anticipate when a system is going to get juiced or fade back based on moistures layers. It's mostly over my head, but there is enough I have come to understand to look at what he puts up.

The current environment per 18z gfs is actually quite favorable from an RH perspective right now, very little dry air. Cape is not a good measure especially when there is so much dry air aloft like what is modeled tomorrow, especially in a TC. It will cause major issues when it’s trying to establish an inner core.

But by tomorrow it’s going to get much more unfavorable with plenty of dry air intrusion if the GFS is correct.

Even at landfall there is a lot of dry air for it to contend with. This is NOT a favorable pattern for RI especially if shear is affecting this system. That’s likely why the GFS has been much weaker all along vs the Euro and UK.

I agree with your analysis, and I think dry air can be easily overlooked/underrated. But I don't like the looks of this sort of solution in terms of human impact. As PTC Two moves west, this sort of asymmetrization would create a large flood risk over eastern LA in particular, especially if the system moves slowly once inland like the GFS shows. I don't want to turn this into a models thread but you can look at the GFS' precipitation maps to see what I'm talking about.

[MississippiWx]

I highly doubt this makes Hurricane status. Too much dry air tomorrow, inner core is struggling to organize and shear plus proximity to land will hold this one down. Latest ICON is only a moderate TS. Main impact imo is likely to be the rain/flooding.

It looks to be ahead of what was progged anyway even though the organization manifested more Friday into Saturday in runs from the last couple of days. Expert said the same thing yesterday, and I thing it's going to be close either way and probably wouldn't actually put money on it one way or the other.

It looks very rough right now with the best RH values it’s going to see. Tomorrow mid level dry air is going to penetrate the core on the N to NW sides. It’s hard for a TC to form or strengthen with dry air mixing in like the GFS is showing. Btw the 00z icon and gfs are significantly weaker than prior runs. People have been hyping the RI potential way too much because of the Euro and UK imo. The Fv3 (current gfs) did quite well with intensity last year and that looks to hold true here also. The bigger concern for me is the fire hose of torrential rains aimed at Louisiana which could cause historic flooding. That’s the big story with this one imo.

You are basing your claims off current "looks". Not wise. This was expected.

Also, the new GFS is 3mb stronger than last run so far.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Baffled by this dry air talk. I can't find any soundings that support these claims. RH values are around 70%.

[SoupBone]

It looks to be ahead of what was progged anyway even though the organization manifested more Friday into Saturday in runs from the last couple of days. Expert said the same thing yesterday, and I thing it's going to be close either way and probably wouldn't actually put money on it one way or the other.

It looks very rough right now with the best RH values it’s going to see. Tomorrow mid level dry air is going to penetrate the core on the N to NW sides. It’s hard for a TC to form or strengthen with dry air mixing in like the GFS is showing. Btw the 00z icon and gfs are significantly weaker than prior runs. People have been hyping the RI potential way too much because of the Euro and UK imo. The Fv3 (current gfs) did quite well with intensity last year and that looks to hold true here also. The bigger concern for me is the fire hose of torrential rains aimed at Louisiana which could cause historic flooding. That’s the big story with this one imo.

You are basing your claims off current "looks". Not wise. This was expected.

Also, the new GFS is 3mb stronger than last run so far.

It's also quite a bit more east this run, putting it over Terrebonne Parish on Saturday.

[MississippiWx]

For those making claims that this is going to be weaker just because of the current diurnal minimum convective phase, let me remind you of what the 18z HWRF predicted for this time frame. Looks awfully similar, does it not?

[txwatcher91]

It looks to be ahead of what was progged anyway even though the organization manifested more Friday into Saturday in runs from the last couple of days. Expert said the same thing yesterday, and I thing it's going to be close either way and probably wouldn't actually put money on it one way or the other.

It looks very rough right now with the best RH values it’s going to see. Tomorrow mid level dry air is going to penetrate the core on the N to NW sides. It’s hard for a TC to form or strengthen with dry air mixing in like the GFS is showing. Btw the 00z icon and gfs are significantly weaker than prior runs. People have been hyping the RI potential way too much because of the Euro and UK imo. The Fv3 (current gfs) did quite well with intensity last year and that looks to hold true here also. The bigger concern for me is the fire hose of torrential rains aimed at Louisiana which could cause historic flooding. That’s the big story with this one imo.

You are basing your claims off current "looks". Not wise. This was expected.

Also, the new GFS is 3mb stronger than last run so far.

Through 42 hours the GFS was about 1mb weaker and convection more displaced to the south. It’s also East this time so less time over water. It does briefly gets stronger after hour 42 vs the prior run but overall not impressive and heavily sheared/dry air look.

I’ve been doing this for 20 years, I’ve learned a thing or two in that time and the hype on here has been a bit much tonight. People taking about Wilma, Charley, and Katrina RI and making it sound like that could happen here. Those are extreme scenarios with different synoptic setups that are HIGHLY unlikely to occur, especially with models now shifting East and a quicker landfall and still a struggling inner core with little convection. I simply do not see this being more than a moderate tropical storm at landfall. Again, the historic rain and flooding is the issue here imo. Euro has been spitting out over 2 feet of rain as has the gfs and cmc. That’s going to be a MAJOR issue for the areas on the right side of this system.

[txwatcher91]

For those making claims that this is going to be weaker just because of the current diurnal minimum convective phase, let me remind you of what the 18z HWRF predicted for this time frame. Looks awfully similar, does it not?

https://imgur.com/Srrz9H2

The previous run of the HWRF was south and much healthier looking for the same time. Imo it’s not handling this well.