Steve wrote:crimi481 wrote:Looks in bad shape. dry air - and sinking south.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined
Yeah there are some dry patches, but look at what GCANE has been posting the last couple of days with the theta e ridges and showing where there are very high CAPE values. Most mets look at that stuff anyway for forecasting, but he posts the most about it on the forum and stays on top of it. You can sometimes look at what he posts and anticipate when a system is going to get juiced or fade back based on moistures layers. It's mostly over my head, but there is enough I have come to understand to look at what he puts up.
The current environment per 18z gfs is actually quite favorable from an RH perspective right now, very little dry air. Cape is not a good measure especially when there is so much dry air aloft like what is modeled tomorrow, especially in a TC. It will cause major issues when it’s trying to establish an inner core.

But by tomorrow it’s going to get much more unfavorable with plenty of dry air intrusion if the GFS is correct.

Even at landfall there is a lot of dry air for it to contend with. This is NOT a favorable pattern for RI especially if shear is affecting this system. That’s likely why the GFS has been much weaker all along vs the Euro and UK.
