ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Location: 12.8°N 63.3°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[NDG]

Declared a lot sooner by a good 6 hours than I thought they were going to

[SFLcane]

Well that escalated quickly...Flaring up nicely this afternoon.

[Siker]

Not sure of the eventual track / intensity of this, but the dueling between the eastern and western vorts reminds me of formative Cristobal 2014. Models sent it into the Gulf originally before jumping to the Bahamas / Bermuda when the eastern half became clearly dominant.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Nice wall of 30-40kt shear ahead of it, as someone noted, being on the boundary of that jet is improving presentation.

Something to watch nonetheless!

[SFLcane]

Could develop once in the Bahamas...

[TheProfessor]

Wow, I remember heading to bed last night and this wasn't highlighted yet and now it's already an invest.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1155521438733914112

[floridasun78]

this strongest wave Caribbean seen
this hurr season

[Aric Dunn]

Nice wall of 30-40kt shear ahead of it, as someone noted, being on the boundary of that jet is improving presentation.

Something to watch nonetheless!

The shear has been moving with it for days now. and it will continue too stay ahead of it for now.

[floridasun78]

would this stronger and td3 was? looking like going same area as td3 but look will be
stronger before get to bahamas

[NDG]

would this stronger and td3 was? looking like going same area as td3 but look will be
stronger before get to bahamas

Definitely not out of the question, TD 3 did better for itself than what models were forecasting it to be.

[drezee]

Nice wall of 30-40kt shear ahead of it, as someone noted, being on the boundary of that jet is improving presentation.

Something to watch nonetheless!

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1155524499095166976

[drezee]

Nice wall of 30-40kt shear ahead of it, as someone noted, being on the boundary of that jet is improving presentation.

Something to watch nonetheless!

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1155527993474764800

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1155561211578109952

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Satellite Imagery:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... sector=car
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL952019
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... 24-0-100-1
https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... -72&zoom=5
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16
While an invest: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... km&PROD=ir
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[Kazmit]

It’s quite far south for the path it’s expected to take. I’m used to seeing those types of tracks later in the season.

[cycloneye]

Flash Flood Watch issued for Puerto Rico / US Virgin Islands

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
including Culebra and Vieques

* From Monday noon through Tuesday evening

* There is a high risk for flash flooding across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands starting on Monday afternoon through
Tuesday evening. The passage of an active tropical wave will
result in periods of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity
across the region. The bulk of this activity will favor the
eastern half of Puerto Rico, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands
through the period. However, diurnal heating and local effects
will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity across the
interior and western sectors of Puerto Rico during the afternoon
hours.

Overall, rainfall totals are forecast to range between 2 and 4
inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches in Puerto Rico.
Rainfall totals between 1 and 2 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands. This will
cause guts and small streams to overflow their banks and some larger
rivers to rise above flood stage. Some of these rises will happen
very rapidly when thunderstorms dump heavy amounts in a short
period of time. There is also a possibility of mudslides in steep
terrain after the first 24 hours of rainfall.

Moisture associated with this tropical wave will continue into
Wednesday with some heavy rains indicated so the the watch will
be extended if needed on Tuesday.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... od%20watch

[NotSparta]

Looking decent in the jet entrance region, but the shear awaits

[msbee]

St Maarten is right on the northern edge of this. I wonder how much rain we will get from it. We need the rain but we don't need flooding.
we are getting some light rain now.