ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Location: 12.8°N 63.3°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Declared a lot sooner by a good 6 hours than I thought they were going to
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Well that escalated quickly...Flaring up nicely this afternoon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Not sure of the eventual track / intensity of this, but the dueling between the eastern and western vorts reminds me of formative Cristobal 2014. Models sent it into the Gulf originally before jumping to the Bahamas / Bermuda when the eastern half became clearly dominant.
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- Hurricane Andrew
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Nice wall of 30-40kt shear ahead of it, as someone noted, being on the boundary of that jet is improving presentation.
Something to watch nonetheless!
Something to watch nonetheless!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Wow, I remember heading to bed last night and this wasn't highlighted yet and now it's already an invest.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Hurricane Andrew wrote:Nice wall of 30-40kt shear ahead of it, as someone noted, being on the boundary of that jet is improving presentation.
Something to watch nonetheless!
The shear has been moving with it for days now. and it will continue too stay ahead of it for now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
would this stronger and td3 was? looking like going same area as td3 but look will be
stronger before get to bahamas
stronger before get to bahamas
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
floridasun78 wrote:would this stronger and td3 was? looking like going same area as td3 but look will be
stronger before get to bahamas
Definitely not out of the question, TD 3 did better for itself than what models were forecasting it to be.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Hurricane Andrew wrote:Nice wall of 30-40kt shear ahead of it, as someone noted, being on the boundary of that jet is improving presentation.
Something to watch nonetheless!
https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1155524499095166976
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Hurricane Andrew wrote:Nice wall of 30-40kt shear ahead of it, as someone noted, being on the boundary of that jet is improving presentation.
Something to watch nonetheless!
https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1155527993474764800
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Satellite Imagery:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... sector=car
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL952019
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... 24-0-100-1
https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... -72&zoom=5
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16
While an invest: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... km&PROD=ir
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... sector=car
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL952019
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... 24-0-100-1
https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... -72&zoom=5
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16
While an invest: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... km&PROD=ir
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
It’s quite far south for the path it’s expected to take. I’m used to seeing those types of tracks later in the season.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Flash Flood Watch issued for Puerto Rico / US Virgin Islands
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... od%20watch
The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a
* Flash Flood Watch for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
including Culebra and Vieques
* From Monday noon through Tuesday evening
* There is a high risk for flash flooding across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands starting on Monday afternoon through
Tuesday evening. The passage of an active tropical wave will
result in periods of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity
across the region. The bulk of this activity will favor the
eastern half of Puerto Rico, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands
through the period. However, diurnal heating and local effects
will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity across the
interior and western sectors of Puerto Rico during the afternoon
hours.
Overall, rainfall totals are forecast to range between 2 and 4
inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches in Puerto Rico.
Rainfall totals between 1 and 2 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands. This will
cause guts and small streams to overflow their banks and some larger
rivers to rise above flood stage. Some of these rises will happen
very rapidly when thunderstorms dump heavy amounts in a short
period of time. There is also a possibility of mudslides in steep
terrain after the first 24 hours of rainfall.
Moisture associated with this tropical wave will continue into
Wednesday with some heavy rains indicated so the the watch will
be extended if needed on Tuesday.
* Flash Flood Watch for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
including Culebra and Vieques
* From Monday noon through Tuesday evening
* There is a high risk for flash flooding across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands starting on Monday afternoon through
Tuesday evening. The passage of an active tropical wave will
result in periods of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity
across the region. The bulk of this activity will favor the
eastern half of Puerto Rico, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands
through the period. However, diurnal heating and local effects
will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity across the
interior and western sectors of Puerto Rico during the afternoon
hours.
Overall, rainfall totals are forecast to range between 2 and 4
inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches in Puerto Rico.
Rainfall totals between 1 and 2 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands. This will
cause guts and small streams to overflow their banks and some larger
rivers to rise above flood stage. Some of these rises will happen
very rapidly when thunderstorms dump heavy amounts in a short
period of time. There is also a possibility of mudslides in steep
terrain after the first 24 hours of rainfall.
Moisture associated with this tropical wave will continue into
Wednesday with some heavy rains indicated so the the watch will
be extended if needed on Tuesday.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... od%20watch
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Looking decent in the jet entrance region, but the shear awaits
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
St Maarten is right on the northern edge of this. I wonder how much rain we will get from it. We need the rain but we don't need flooding.
we are getting some light rain now.
we are getting some light rain now.
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