Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)

[AutoPenalti]

Legacy shifts E but sends it to the Bahamas as a Cat 4.

[SoupBone]

Trend is tad-bit East. The timing of the trough is really going to be key. This is going to be a long ride for some here.

Remember Barry? I said it in his thread, it's the year of the trough.

[wxman57]

Tweet from Michael Ventrice shows ECMWF ensembles development probability & possible track. Recurves east of the U.S., which I think is most likely but not a guarantee.

[N2FSU]

12z Legacy GFS shifts from 1010mb in Gulf to this:

[Aric Dunn]

Levi Cowan has a floater up.

TropicalTidbits floater

You can definitely see the circ tightening and taking shape. Ascat also had that good pass. I bet chances going up for the first 48 hours at 2 pm.

[TheStormExpert]

Where’s ninel conde? I think his semi-permanent East Coast trough is back!

[TheStormExpert]

12z Legacy GFS shifts from 1010mb in Gulf to this:

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/4Zm5TXqLDuPbtftPoZOiIbXVfj4uFsWjlGVktA-0HuqEdFjKLUN2g1bXbe3bZxKdzXL4FGRZOMuF79ZGb5dLvzK_y54xB1DWiEg0-Thn9TSm5WtOiBn5d0XEAKyGy_lRwNfQE8Lnx9Y=w2400

Yikes! Almost looks like a direct strike on the NC Outer Banks.

[gatorcane]

Recurve away from US looks likely but no guarantee. I remember the initial runs for Irma and Florence showed recurve with the big east coast trough and look what happened.

[ava_ati]

The striking thing to me is every run this east coast trough looks shallower and shallower.

[floridasun78]

Recurve away from US looks likely but no guarantee. I remember the initial runs for Irma and Florence showed recurve with the big east coast trough and look what happened.

we should know by wed next week when close to islands

[tarheelprogrammer]

CMC is well east and OTS. I am hoping this thing strengthens fast and heads OTS avoiding the islands and the US. I really do not want to evacuate again here in the Wilmington, NC area. Last year was not fun

[jlauderdal]

Recurve away from US looks likely but no guarantee. I remember the initial runs for Irma and Florence showed recurve with the big east coast trough and look what happened.

we should know by wed next week when close to islands

Craig Setzer say anything about this system yet?

[jlauderdal]

12z Legacy GFS shifts from 1010mb in Gulf to this:

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/4Zm5TXqLDuPbtftPoZOiIbXVfj4uFsWjlGVktA-0HuqEdFjKLUN2g1bXbe3bZxKdzXL4FGRZOMuF79ZGb5dLvzK_y54xB1DWiEg0-Thn9TSm5WtOiBn5d0XEAKyGy_lRwNfQE8Lnx9Y=w2400

thats the legacy gfs we all know and dont love...stick with the new gfs and euro

[ConvergenceZone]

In spite of most of the models curving it out to sea, the east coast/gulf is far from out of the woods at this point. I mean, how many times have we seen this exact thing, only to see the models gradually shifting west the next day, and before you know it the East Coast is in the Cone....

[BYG Jacob]

Nothing like playing dodgeball with hurricanes

[NDG]

Where’s ninel conde? I think his semi-permanent East Coast trough is back!

Ever since his big east coast trough theory busted a couple of years ago he has not returned

[artist]

Recurve away from US looks likely but no guarantee. I remember the initial runs for Irma and Florence showed recurve with the big east coast trough and look what happened.

we should know by wed next week when close to islands

Craig Setzer say anything about this system yet?

I found this-

Craig Setzer
@CraigSetzer
·
2h
I’m at ⁦
@weathercompany
⁩ computer training this week but keeping a close eye on the tropics. No immediate South Florida tropical threats for the moment but a couple of things to watch. #SetzerSays ⁦
@CBSMiami
⁩

[BYG Jacob]

Where’s ninel conde? I think his semi-permanent East Coast trough is back!

Ever since his big east coast trough theory busted a couple of years ago he has not returned

Did said bust happen because of a certain I storm?

[jlauderdal]

we should know by wed next week when close to islands

Craig Setzer say anything about this system yet?

I found this-

Craig Setzer
@CraigSetzer
·
2h
I’m at ⁦
@weathercompany
⁩ computer training this week but keeping a close eye on the tropics. No immediate South Florida tropical threats for the moment but a couple of things to watch. #SetzerSays ⁦
@CBSMiami
⁩

computer training, we have two systems,

thanks for the info, Setzer and john morales are very good, when they get concerned then its a problem

[jfk08c]

At what longitude do the trade winds start to not have an effect on the westward movement? When does the Bermuda High have to pick the system up and keep it moving west? Still relatively new to the science behind meteorology but to me it seems like the ridging in the Atlantic isn't strong enough to keep the system moving westward after it becomes uninfluenced by the trades. Or is it the trough on the EC that is causing the ridge to move out of the way and letting it recurve? Like I said, still new so if anyone can help me understand what we are looking for i'd greatly appreciate it!