Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)

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AutoPenalti
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#261 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:53 am

Legacy shifts E but sends it to the Bahamas as a Cat 4.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#262 Postby SoupBone » Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:54 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Trend is tad-bit East. The timing of the trough is really going to be key. This is going to be a long ride for some here.



Remember Barry? I said it in his thread, it's the year of the trough. :lol:
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#263 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:55 am

Tweet from Michael Ventrice shows ECMWF ensembles development probability & possible track. Recurves east of the U.S., which I think is most likely but not a guarantee.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#264 Postby N2FSU » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:00 pm

12z Legacy GFS shifts from 1010mb in Gulf to this:

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#265 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:Levi Cowan has a floater up.

TropicalTidbits floater



You can definitely see the circ tightening and taking shape. Ascat also had that good pass. I bet chances going up for the first 48 hours at 2 pm.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#266 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:02 pm

Where’s ninel conde? I think his semi-permanent East Coast trough is back! :lol:
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#267 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:03 pm


Yikes! Almost looks like a direct strike on the NC Outer Banks.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#268 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:09 pm

Recurve away from US looks likely but no guarantee. I remember the initial runs for Irma and Florence showed recurve with the big east coast trough and look what happened.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#269 Postby ava_ati » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:10 pm

The striking thing to me is every run this east coast trough looks shallower and shallower.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#270 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:Recurve away from US looks likely but no guarantee. I remember the initial runs for Irma and Florence showed recurve with the big east coast trough and look what happened.

we should know by wed next week when close to islands
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#271 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:13 pm

CMC is well east and OTS. I am hoping this thing strengthens fast and heads OTS avoiding the islands and the US. I really do not want to evacuate again here in the Wilmington, NC area. Last year was not fun :cry:
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#272 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:22 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Recurve away from US looks likely but no guarantee. I remember the initial runs for Irma and Florence showed recurve with the big east coast trough and look what happened.

we should know by wed next week when close to islands

Craig Setzer say anything about this system yet?
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#273 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:24 pm


thats the legacy gfs we all know and dont love...stick with the new gfs and euro
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#274 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:30 pm

In spite of most of the models curving it out to sea, the east coast/gulf is far from out of the woods at this point. I mean, how many times have we seen this exact thing, only to see the models gradually shifting west the next day, and before you know it the East Coast is in the Cone....
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#275 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:33 pm

Nothing like playing dodgeball with hurricanes
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#276 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:36 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Where’s ninel conde? I think his semi-permanent East Coast trough is back! :lol:


Ever since his big east coast trough theory busted a couple of years ago he has not returned 8-)
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#277 Postby artist » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:37 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Recurve away from US looks likely but no guarantee. I remember the initial runs for Irma and Florence showed recurve with the big east coast trough and look what happened.

we should know by wed next week when close to islands

Craig Setzer say anything about this system yet?

I found this-

Craig Setzer
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@weathercompany
⁩ computer training this week but keeping a close eye on the tropics. No immediate South Florida tropical threats for the moment but a couple of things to watch. #SetzerSays ⁦
@CBSMiami
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BYG Jacob

Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#278 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:39 pm

NDG wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Where’s ninel conde? I think his semi-permanent East Coast trough is back! :lol:


Ever since his big east coast trough theory busted a couple of years ago he has not returned 8-)

Did said bust happen because of a certain I storm? :lol:
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#279 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:40 pm

artist wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:we should know by wed next week when close to islands

Craig Setzer say anything about this system yet?

I found this-

Craig Setzer
@CraigSetzer
·
2h
I’m at ⁦
@weathercompany
⁩ computer training this week but keeping a close eye on the tropics. No immediate South Florida tropical threats for the moment but a couple of things to watch. #SetzerSays ⁦
@CBSMiami

computer training, we have two systems, :D

thanks for the info, Setzer and john morales are very good, when they get concerned then its a problem
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#280 Postby jfk08c » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:41 pm

At what longitude do the trade winds start to not have an effect on the westward movement? When does the Bermuda High have to pick the system up and keep it moving west? Still relatively new to the science behind meteorology but to me it seems like the ridging in the Atlantic isn't strong enough to keep the system moving westward after it becomes uninfluenced by the trades. Or is it the trough on the EC that is causing the ridge to move out of the way and letting it recurve? Like I said, still new so if anyone can help me understand what we are looking for i'd greatly appreciate it!
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