2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

Yep, plows a Cat.1 hurricane into Tampa. Maybe the new-GFS is happy hour at 18z as well?

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Yep, plows a Cat.1 hurricane into Tampa. Maybe the new-GFS is happy hour at 18z as well?

Looks like Get Florida Soon is still in business

[OuterBanker]

Wow, an east coast rider. Actually looks as bad in eastern NC as in FL.

[USTropics]

Decent GFS ensemble support for a potential system in BOC/WGOM for the latter half of August. Super long range, we'll see if the GFS has some consistency as the timeframe narrows in:

[USTropics]

MJO pulse will be begin pushing through around the same timeframe:

[Hurricaneman]

The front moving off the east coast on the 0zGFS is birthing tropical cyclones like crazy, that is classic convective feedback

[TheStormExpert]

Decent GFS ensemble support for a potential system in BOC/WGOM for the latter half of August. Super long range, we'll see if the GFS has some consistency as the timeframe narrows in:

https://i.imgur.com/F9WdoWE.png

00z GFS Ensembles not as bullish so maybe it is the 18z run living up to its name.

[SFLcane]

Nothing here to see 06z has a bunch of lows over land and a weak one headed out to sea.

[gatorcane]

No significant development on the latest GFS this run but take a look at the significant drop in wind shear across the Caribbean the model is forecasting in the long-range. A sign that the climatological uptick in activity is near:

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

24 to 48 hr Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Anomoly

[GCANE]

This MJO forecast looks favorable for the MDR starting first week of Sept.
Could be real busy mid Sept.

[floridasun78]

24 to 48 hr Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Anomoly

https://i.imgur.com/cujaIXZ.gif

look this area that showing that off Africa now

[GCANE]

NOAA increases chance for above-normal hurricane season

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa ... ane-season

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1160226389590777856

[WeatherEmperor]

Fwiw, the GFS has a TS hitting south florida and rides it up into the Carolinas afterwards. Maybe a sign the models are waking up?




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[SouthFloridawx]

Fwiw, the GFS has a TS hitting south florida and rides it up into the Carolinas afterwards. Maybe a sign the models are waking up?




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Yesterday

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[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: Yep, plows a Cat.1 hurricane into Tampa. Maybe the new-GFS is happy hour at 18z as well?

Well this far out...i think tampa is safe

new gfs or legacy, same result, plenty of south florida strikes..right on climatology schedule the tropics are awaking from a slumber

[TheStormExpert]

Fwiw, the GFS has a TS hitting south florida and rides it up into the Carolinas afterwards. Maybe a sign the models are waking up?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190811/515dbd88bfb4a53d59fbc945ad000375.png

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There’s no consistency in this model as of lately. It has something one run only to drop it the next run.

[blp]

Hello I'm andre Brooks and I'm a lover of God and I'm going to Mississippi state university to become a meteorologist and its nice to meet you. And I also have autism. So tell me about yourself.

Welcome aboard Andre and nice to meet you as well. Storm2k has a great community with great contributors that will help you along in your educational journey. Good luck in your career.