2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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TheStormExpert

Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#361 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:47 pm

:uarrow: Yep, plows a Cat.1 hurricane into Tampa. Maybe the new-GFS is happy hour at 18z as well? :lol:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#362 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:10 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Yep, plows a Cat.1 hurricane into Tampa. Maybe the new-GFS is happy hour at 18z as well? :lol:


Looks like Get Florida Soon is still in business :D
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#363 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:42 pm

Wow, an east coast rider. Actually looks as bad in eastern NC as in FL.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#364 Postby USTropics » Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:41 pm

Decent GFS ensemble support for a potential system in BOC/WGOM for the latter half of August. Super long range, we'll see if the GFS has some consistency as the timeframe narrows in:

Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#365 Postby USTropics » Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:48 pm

MJO pulse will be begin pushing through around the same timeframe:

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#366 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:32 pm

The front moving off the east coast on the 0zGFS is birthing tropical cyclones like crazy, that is classic convective feedback
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#367 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:46 am

USTropics wrote:Decent GFS ensemble support for a potential system in BOC/WGOM for the latter half of August. Super long range, we'll see if the GFS has some consistency as the timeframe narrows in:

https://i.imgur.com/F9WdoWE.png

00z GFS Ensembles not as bullish so maybe it is the 18z run living up to its name.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#368 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 10, 2019 6:42 am

Nothing here to see 06z has a bunch of lows over land and a weak one headed out to sea.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#369 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:00 am

No significant development on the latest GFS this run but take a look at the significant drop in wind shear across the Caribbean the model is forecasting in the long-range. A sign that the climatological uptick in activity is near:

Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#370 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:13 pm

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#371 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:17 pm

24 to 48 hr Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Anomoly

Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#372 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:23 pm

This MJO forecast looks favorable for the MDR starting first week of Sept.
Could be real busy mid Sept.

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#373 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:26 pm

GCANE wrote:24 to 48 hr Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Anomoly

https://i.imgur.com/cujaIXZ.gif

look this area that showing that off Africa now Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#374 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:26 pm

NOAA increases chance for above-normal hurricane season

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa ... ane-season
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#375 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:29 pm

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#376 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:16 am

Fwiw, the GFS has a TS hitting south florida and rides it up into the Carolinas afterwards. Maybe a sign the models are waking up?

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Re: RE: Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#377 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:39 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Fwiw, the GFS has a TS hitting south florida and rides it up into the Carolinas afterwards. Maybe a sign the models are waking up?

Image


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YesterdayImage

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#378 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:37 am

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Yep, plows a Cat.1 hurricane into Tampa. Maybe the new-GFS is happy hour at 18z as well? :lol:



Well this far out...i think tampa is safe
new gfs or legacy, same result, plenty of south florida strikes..right on climatology schedule the tropics are awaking from a slumber
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#379 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:43 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Fwiw, the GFS has a TS hitting south florida and rides it up into the Carolinas afterwards. Maybe a sign the models are waking up?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190811/515dbd88bfb4a53d59fbc945ad000375.png

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There’s no consistency in this model as of lately. It has something one run only to drop it the next run.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#380 Postby blp » Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:15 am

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:Hello I'm andre Brooks and I'm a lover of God and I'm going to Mississippi state university to become a meteorologist and its nice to meet you. And I also have autism. So tell me about yourself.


Welcome aboard Andre and nice to meet you as well. Storm2k has a great community with great contributors that will help you along in your educational journey. Good luck in your career.
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