Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

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NDG
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#241 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:16 pm

12z GFS dropped the idea of the northern end of this TW possibly developing over the FL straights/SE GOM.
But at least is more clear that the moisture heading into the BOC and possibly TX gulf coast by the end of next week is coming from the TW over south central Caribbean while this TW over the Windward Islands is forecasted to take a more northerly track over the islands and eventually SE GOM.

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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#242 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:23 pm

NDG wrote:12z GFS dropped the idea of the northern end of this TW possibly developing over the FL straights/SE GOM.
But at least is more clear that the moisture heading into the BOC and possibly TX gulf coast by the end of next week is coming from the TW over south central Caribbean while this TW over the Windward Islands is forecasted to take a more northerly track over the islands and eventually SE GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/HM7gxX5.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/GMKmCSd.gif


You can also see from today’s Canadian that the origins is from this Eastern Caribbean wave, Canadian shows a weak area of vorticity in the GOM which looks to try and develop as it recurves but runs out of time:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#243 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:
NDG wrote:12z GFS dropped the idea of the northern end of this TW possibly developing over the FL straights/SE GOM.
But at least is more clear that the moisture heading into the BOC and possibly TX gulf coast by the end of next week is coming from the TW over south central Caribbean while this TW over the Windward Islands is forecasted to take a more northerly track over the islands and eventually SE GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/HM7gxX5.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/GMKmCSd.gif


You can also see from today’s Canadian that the origins is from this wave, Canadian shows a weak area of vorticity in the GOM which looks to try and develop but runs out of time:

https://i.postimg.cc/Ssyts72d/gem-z850-vort-watl-31.png


If the Canadian now has development with this wave it means Derek Ortt will now pay attention to it :wink:
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#244 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:29 pm

NDG wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
NDG wrote:12z GFS dropped the idea of the northern end of this TW possibly developing over the FL straights/SE GOM.
But at least is more clear that the moisture heading into the BOC and possibly TX gulf coast by the end of next week is coming from the TW over south central Caribbean while this TW over the Windward Islands is forecasted to take a more northerly track over the islands and eventually SE GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/HM7gxX5.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/GMKmCSd.gif/quote]

You can also see from today’s Canadian that the origins is from this wave, Canadian shows a weak area of vorticity in the GOM which looks to try and develop but runs out of time:

https://i.postimg.cc/Ssyts72d/gem-z850-vort-watl-31.png


If the Canadian now has development with this wave it means Derek Ortt will now pay attention to it :wink:


Hey at least the cyclone-happy Canadian is showing a hint of something. That is a start! :lol:

Meanwhile crickets on the GFS
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#245 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:38 pm

NDG wrote:12z GFS dropped the idea of the northern end of this TW possibly developing over the FL straights/SE GOM.
But at least is more clear that the moisture heading into the BOC and possibly TX gulf coast by the end of next week is coming from the TW over south central Caribbean while this TW over the Windward Islands is forecasted to take a more northerly track over the islands and eventually SE GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/HM7gxX5.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/GMKmCSd.gif



The moisture moves into LA, not TX. It gets towards the coast and then boom decides to move NE.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#246 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:55 pm

Euro tries to spin something up on the upper Texas coast still needs to be watched
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#247 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:21 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Euro tries to spin something up on the upper Texas coast still needs to be watched


Yeah with all the rain into LA :roll:
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#248 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:18 pm

00Z GFS shows a slight blip on Saturday, but nothing of noteworthiness. It shows that EPAC system going along Baja.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#249 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:05 pm

The vorticity is in the central carrib on the western side of that convection.. it is farther north than the EUro had it. at that latitude it wouldnt interact with land as much on it's track to the Gulf. . maybe we will see the models shift back to gulf development. maybe gain a little extra vorticity in the western carrib from the divergent upper flow since it might be over water more.

12z Euro still tries to develop it. needs to be watched of course.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#250 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:16 pm

The way I see it, this tropical wave axis coming into the picture below will interact with the mid level vorticity at h70 & h50 over Nicaragua in a couple of days near the BOH, not sure which entity will be the most benefited from. They will both interact with an ULL forecasted to get over them initially but eventually an UL ridge will build very close to it as it moves to the NW GOM towards the persistent weakness over the northern gulf coast.

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Last edited by NDG on Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#251 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:20 pm

NDG wrote:The way I see it, this tropical wave axis coming into the picture below will interact with the mid level vorticity at h70 & h50 over Nicaragua in a couple of days near the BOH, not sure which entity will be the most benefited from. They will both interact with an ULL forecasted to get over them initially but eventually an UL ridge will build very close to it as it moves to the NW GOM towards the persistent weakness over the northern gulf coast.

http://i.imgur.com/ZYp5cbUh.gif
https://i.imgur.com/fcGrfRN.gif
https://i.imgur.com/HRY3hHu.gif


That last one you posted has it going into Louisiana. I get it can change, but as I've said about the death ridge over Texas, it doesn't want to go anywhere.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

#252 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:21 pm

Edited title to add Central as wave axis has passed 70W.

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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

#253 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:52 pm

Seems a bit eerie how this wave looks to take a similar track to Harvey around the same exact dates. :double:
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

#254 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:13 pm

Something to watch closely through the upcoming week for the TX and LA coast.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

#255 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:44 pm

This should develop looking at the fact it’s going to run into that low near Costa Rica and move NW into the BOC and into the Gulf and the conditions are favorable for some development, hoping nothing like Humberto 2007
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

#256 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:46 pm

Probably an infrared illusion but the low on the coast of Nicaragua appears to be just drifting.
I gather some of the models think the wave will catch up just off Belize after the low crosses Honduras?
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

#257 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:53 pm

Nimbus wrote:Probably an infrared illusion but the low on the coast of Nicaragua appears to be just drifting.
I gather some of the models think the wave will catch up just off Belize after the low crosses Honduras?



from the looks of everything over the last week of model runs. various pieces of energy in different levels eventually come together... the wave in central carrib catches up to mid level energy currently in western carrib... etc..

then move NW until it finds a better environment. the only real question is timing and ridge strength.. when does it turn ?

it either runs into mexico or turns north sooner.

If it is slower then it will turn right sooner. just have to wait. a lot of things have to happen for this.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

#258 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:37 am

00Z GFS says nope. That EPAC system is key to this non-development.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

#259 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:40 am

The main wave and low level energy is approaching the western carrib. Lets see what happens today with convection and its location.. how far north.. etc..
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

#260 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:29 am

Upper level winds aren’t to favorable
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