ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

had a lightning a show a couple of hours ago but now winds are calm and there is blue sky overhead, must be in the eye of this beast

back later with a damage assessment

[chaser1]

had a lightning a show a couple of hours ago but now winds are calm and there is blue sky overhead, must be in the eye of this beast

back later with a damage assessment

Any chance you or other experienced storm chasers possibly getting a drone up while in the eye of this monster? Either way, stay safe / Avoid Flash Flood Risk zones; avoid wandering to far given risk of sudden wind shift and 10 mph winds associated with the back side of the system. Vigilance is the key

[NDG]

UL Trough has dug down into Cuba.
Not much going to happen until this clears out.

https://i.imgur.com/YUahvie.png

This is why the weak LLC just east of Naples this morning will either die or move NE towards the convection developing this morning over the gulf stream as the mid level energy continues moving away from FL.

[xironman]

On the visible it looks like it is relocating under the convection off shore

[Aric Dunn]

Circ is forming east of melbourne. surface obs showing 75 percent closed. probably would take too long if convection keep up.

what happens to the circ near naples ? probably meanders around like the GFS and meso models.

[jlauderdal]

had a lightning a show a couple of hours ago but now winds are calm and there is blue sky overhead, must be in the eye of this beast

back later with a damage assessment

Any chance you or other experienced storm chasers possibly getting a drone up while in the eye of this monster? Either way, stay safe / Avoid Flash Flood Risk zones; avoid wandering to far given risk of sudden wind shift and 10 mph winds associated with the back side of the system. Vigilance is the key

hurricane hunters wouldnt dare to fly in this thing..we do have some heating going now so I would expect the tstorms to get going shortly over the Penninsula

[wxman57]

Certainly no TD today. No impacts across Florida. I think it'll develop tomorrow afternoon as it's accelerating out to sea to the NE. Could transition to an extratropical storm before reaching Newfoundland next Saturday.

[jlauderdal]

Circ is forming east of melbourne. surface obs showing 75 percent closed. probably would take too long if convection keep up.

what happens to the circ near naples ? probably meanders around like the GFS and meso models.

so was this a win for the gfs?

[Aric Dunn]

circ over Sw florida is moving se.. likely in response to lowering pressures off the east coast

[Aric Dunn]

Circ is forming east of melbourne. surface obs showing 75 percent closed. probably would take too long if convection keep up.

what happens to the circ near naples ? probably meanders around like the GFS and meso models.

so was this a win for the gfs?

yeppers. for the most part.

[gatorcane]

Does any model besides the Euro develop this on the path the NHC shows any longer?

[jlauderdal]

Circ is forming east of melbourne. surface obs showing 75 percent closed. probably would take too long if convection keep up.

what happens to the circ near naples ? probably meanders around like the GFS and meso models.

so was this a win for the gfs?

yeppers. for the most part.

its gets the win because it split the energy and that appears to be happening...nhc nailed it too as did wxman 57

[Aric Dunn]

so was this a win for the gfs?

yeppers. for the most part.

its gets the win because it split the energy and that appears to be happening...nhc nailed it too as did wxman 57

wouldn't exactly say that.

all the models except the Euro( which did a couple of times) showed a split for many days. NHC has done well with track consensus from the models.

however the meso models have done better overall most likely due to all the small scale influences that played into this.

[MGC]

No development until low moves over water or center reforms offshore.....MGC

[northjaxpro]

No development until low moves over water or center reforms offshore.....MGC

THIS

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the area east of Ft Pierce might take over today as that seems to be where the most vorticity is taking shape as opposed to where the LSurface low is and the GFS shows this well

[rickybobby]

I thought it was going to rain all day but it’s a beautiful day in central Florida.

[OuterBanker]

Certainly no TD today. No impacts across Florida. I think it'll develop tomorrow afternoon as it's accelerating out to sea to the NE. Could transition to an extratropical storm before reaching Newfoundland next Saturday.

Wxman, I have a question.

The llc is clearly defined with expanding banding in the Everglades ssw of Lake Okeechobee.
Do you think the llc will slip under the cdo off the coast now or will it form it's own cdo?
Will this be Dorian of Erin now that we have td5?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Certainly no TD today. No impacts across Florida. I think it'll develop tomorrow afternoon as it's accelerating out to sea to the NE. Could transition to an extratropical storm before reaching Newfoundland next Saturday.

As a matter of fact the best weather we've seen in weeks thanks to this system.

[CW0262]

Port St Lucie FL North Fork St Lucie River Observations

http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxpage.cgi?call=CW0262