ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6817
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
had a lightning a show a couple of hours ago but now winds are calm and there is blue sky overhead, must be in the eye of this beast
back later with a damage assessment
back later with a damage assessment
5 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:had a lightning a show a couple of hours ago but now winds are calm and there is blue sky overhead, must be in the eye of this beast
back later with a damage assessment
Any chance you or other experienced storm chasers possibly getting a drone up while in the eye of this monster? Either way, stay safe / Avoid Flash Flood Risk zones; avoid wandering to far given risk of sudden wind shift and 10 mph winds associated with the back side of the system. Vigilance is the key
3 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
GCANE wrote:UL Trough has dug down into Cuba.
Not much going to happen until this clears out.
https://i.imgur.com/YUahvie.png
This is why the weak LLC just east of Naples this morning will either die or move NE towards the convection developing this morning over the gulf stream as the mid level energy continues moving away from FL.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
On the visible it looks like it is relocating under the convection off shore
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Circ is forming east of melbourne. surface obs showing 75 percent closed. probably would take too long if convection keep up.
what happens to the circ near naples ? probably meanders around like the GFS and meso models.
what happens to the circ near naples ? probably meanders around like the GFS and meso models.
2 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6817
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
chaser1 wrote:jlauderdal wrote:had a lightning a show a couple of hours ago but now winds are calm and there is blue sky overhead, must be in the eye of this beast
back later with a damage assessment
Any chance you or other experienced storm chasers possibly getting a drone up while in the eye of this monster? Either way, stay safe / Avoid Flash Flood Risk zones; avoid wandering to far given risk of sudden wind shift and 10 mph winds associated with the back side of the system. Vigilance is the key
hurricane hunters wouldnt dare to fly in this thing..we do have some heating going now so I would expect the tstorms to get going shortly over the Penninsula
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Certainly no TD today. No impacts across Florida. I think it'll develop tomorrow afternoon as it's accelerating out to sea to the NE. Could transition to an extratropical storm before reaching Newfoundland next Saturday.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6817
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
so was this a win for the gfs?Aric Dunn wrote:Circ is forming east of melbourne. surface obs showing 75 percent closed. probably would take too long if convection keep up.
what happens to the circ near naples ? probably meanders around like the GFS and meso models.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
circ over Sw florida is moving se.. likely in response to lowering pressures off the east coast
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:so was this a win for the gfs?Aric Dunn wrote:Circ is forming east of melbourne. surface obs showing 75 percent closed. probably would take too long if convection keep up.
what happens to the circ near naples ? probably meanders around like the GFS and meso models.
yeppers. for the most part.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Does any model besides the Euro develop this on the path the NHC shows any longer?
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6817
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
its gets the win because it split the energy and that appears to be happening...nhc nailed it too as did wxman 57Aric Dunn wrote:jlauderdal wrote:so was this a win for the gfs?Aric Dunn wrote:Circ is forming east of melbourne. surface obs showing 75 percent closed. probably would take too long if convection keep up.
what happens to the circ near naples ? probably meanders around like the GFS and meso models.
yeppers. for the most part.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:its gets the win because it split the energy and that appears to be happening...nhc nailed it too as did wxman 57Aric Dunn wrote:jlauderdal wrote:so was this a win for the gfs?
yeppers. for the most part.
wouldn't exactly say that.
all the models except the Euro( which did a couple of times) showed a split for many days. NHC has done well with track consensus from the models.
however the meso models have done better overall most likely due to all the small scale influences that played into this.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- MGC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5799
- Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
No development until low moves over water or center reforms offshore.....MGC
0 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
MGC wrote:No development until low moves over water or center reforms offshore.....MGC
THIS
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7285
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Looks like the area east of Ft Pierce might take over today as that seems to be where the most vorticity is taking shape as opposed to where the LSurface low is and the GFS shows this well
0 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 174
- Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 11:11 am
- Location: Central Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
I thought it was going to rain all day but it’s a beautiful day in central Florida.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1706
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Certainly no TD today. No impacts across Florida. I think it'll develop tomorrow afternoon as it's accelerating out to sea to the NE. Could transition to an extratropical storm before reaching Newfoundland next Saturday.
Wxman, I have a question.
The llc is clearly defined with expanding banding in the Everglades ssw of Lake Okeechobee.
Do you think the llc will slip under the cdo off the coast now or will it form it's own cdo?
Will this be Dorian of Erin now that we have td5?
0 likes
- Hypercane_Kyle
- Category 5
- Posts: 2910
- Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
- Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Certainly no TD today. No impacts across Florida. I think it'll develop tomorrow afternoon as it's accelerating out to sea to the NE. Could transition to an extratropical storm before reaching Newfoundland next Saturday.
As a matter of fact the best weather we've seen in weeks thanks to this system.
0 likes
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 33
- Age: 62
- Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:25 am
- Location: Port Saint Lucie ,FL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Port St Lucie FL North Fork St Lucie River Observations
http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxpage.cgi?call=CW0262
http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxpage.cgi?call=CW0262
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests