While in atlantic Nicholas dies Patricia is born at EPAC

[cycloneye]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03102018

I agree with wxman57 about why in the world the NHC still has Nicholas as a tropical storm because you can see the low center fully exposed and convection has faded east of it and I consider it to be a weak TD but you will see at 5 PM the advisory still calling it a TS but down to 40 mph (35kts).

On the other hand Patricia is born in the EPAC and this is a very late storm for that basin because there things are more unfavorable more early than in the atlantic.

I would like to see some stats about in what year and the latest date that a storm formed at the EPAC basin.

[ColdFront77]

N/A

[cycloneye]

Thanks Tom for the information about the most late EPAC system.

[ColdFront77]

N/A

[Anonymous]

Patricia will likely curve northward into Mexico within 5-7 days.

[Anonymous]

Model support....

http://independentwx.com/EP162003.png

[OtherHD]

According to that map, Paka formed in the Central Pacific.

[ColdFront77]

If the starting position for Hurricane Paka is the "Central Pacific," then it shouldn't be listed under "Eastern Pacific."

Please believe me everyone... I have been to Unisys Weather's Hurricane Data Page enough times to know that there is not an "Eastern Pacific" section.

[OtherHD]

Unisys doesn't have a category for Central Pacific.

[ColdFront77]

Unisys Weather Hurricane Section does have a category called "Central Pacific."

I was going to delete this post.

[OtherHD]

:?

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.html

[ColdFront77]

Then there hasn't been a Hurricane late in the season in the eastern Pacific in the last ten years.

[Anonymous]

Originally posted by Cycloneye:
On the other hand Patricia is born in the EPAC and this is a very late storm for that basin because there things are more unfavorable more early than in the atlantic.

Very late storm? 16 out of the past 25 seasons had 1 or more tropical storms form later than October 20 in the EPAC. In fact, the NHC climatology page shows that on average there is usually a tropical storm or hurricane in the EPAC during the last 10 days. So while Patricia is late in the season, it's not unusually so.

[ColdFront77]

Can't delete

[OtherHD]

What IS unusual is that the EPAC hasn't had a single major hurricane yet.

[AussieMark]

The last year a Eastern Pacific season went without a major Hurricane was <B>1977</B>.


The latest date for the seasons first major Hurricane to form is October 8.


<B>Years with no Major Hurricanes were:</B> 1949-1956, 1958, 1960-1966, 1968-1970, 1977


<B>Years with Major Hurricanes being of Major Hurricane intensity on or after October 20 were:</B> 1957, 1959, 1972, 1975, 1978-1979, 1985-1986, 1990, 1998, 2002


<B>Years since 1979 with Hurricanes in action on or after October 20: </B>1979, 1981-1983, 1985-1986, 1990-1991, 1997-1998, 2001-2002.

[cycloneye]

Thanks tropical for those stats but I think that Patricia may have a chance to be the only major this 2003 season for the EPAC.

[ColdFront77]

<B>Years since 1979 with Hurricanes in action on or after October 20: </B>1979, 1981-1983, 1985-1986, 1990-1991, 1997-1998, 2001-2002.

I looked through the data and couldn't find any hurricane that formed since 1993.

[Anonymous]

We still need to watch for the Caribbean.

[MGC]

don't trust any east pac stats before the satellite area. I'm sure there were several major hurricanes in the seasons that one is not recorded......MGC