While in atlantic Nicholas dies Patricia is born at EPAC

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cycloneye
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While in atlantic Nicholas dies Patricia is born at EPAC

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2003 2:07 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03102018

I agree with wxman57 about why in the world the NHC still has Nicholas as a tropical storm because you can see the low center fully exposed and convection has faded east of it and I consider it to be a weak TD but you will see at 5 PM the advisory still calling it a TS but down to 40 mph (35kts).

On the other hand Patricia is born in the EPAC and this is a very late storm for that basin because there things are more unfavorable more early than in the atlantic.

I would like to see some stats about in what year and the latest date that a storm formed at the EPAC basin.
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ColdFront77

#2 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Oct 21, 2003 12:49 am

N/A
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Tue Oct 21, 2003 8:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 21, 2003 5:36 am

Thanks Tom for the information about the most late EPAC system.
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ColdFront77

#4 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Oct 21, 2003 2:54 pm

N/A
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Tue Oct 21, 2003 8:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Anonymous

#5 Postby Anonymous » Tue Oct 21, 2003 5:05 pm

Patricia will likely curve northward into Mexico within 5-7 days.
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Anonymous

#6 Postby Anonymous » Tue Oct 21, 2003 5:09 pm

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#7 Postby OtherHD » Tue Oct 21, 2003 6:58 pm

According to that map, Paka formed in the Central Pacific.
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ColdFront77

#8 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Oct 21, 2003 7:05 pm

If the starting position for Hurricane Paka is the "Central Pacific," then it shouldn't be listed under "Eastern Pacific." :)

Please believe me everyone... I have been to Unisys Weather's Hurricane Data Page enough times to know that there is not an "Eastern Pacific" section.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Tue Oct 21, 2003 8:09 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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#9 Postby OtherHD » Tue Oct 21, 2003 7:27 pm

Unisys doesn't have a category for Central Pacific.
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ColdFront77

#10 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Oct 21, 2003 7:30 pm

Unisys Weather Hurricane Section does have a category called "Central Pacific."

I was going to delete this post.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Tue Oct 21, 2003 8:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby OtherHD » Tue Oct 21, 2003 7:32 pm

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ColdFront77

#12 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Oct 21, 2003 7:33 pm

Then there hasn't been a Hurricane late in the season in the eastern Pacific in the last ten years.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Tue Oct 21, 2003 8:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Anonymous

#13 Postby Anonymous » Tue Oct 21, 2003 7:44 pm

Originally posted by Cycloneye:
On the other hand Patricia is born in the EPAC and this is a very late storm for that basin because there things are more unfavorable more early than in the atlantic.


Very late storm? 16 out of the past 25 seasons had 1 or more tropical storms form later than October 20 in the EPAC. In fact, the NHC climatology page shows that on average there is usually a tropical storm or hurricane in the EPAC during the last 10 days. So while Patricia is late in the season, it's not unusually so.
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ColdFront77

#14 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Oct 21, 2003 7:49 pm

Can't delete
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Tue Oct 21, 2003 8:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#15 Postby OtherHD » Tue Oct 21, 2003 8:03 pm

What IS unusual is that the EPAC hasn't had a single major hurricane yet.
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#16 Postby AussieMark » Tue Oct 21, 2003 8:35 pm

The last year a Eastern Pacific season went without a major Hurricane was <B>1977</B>.


The latest date for the seasons first major Hurricane to form is October 8.


<B>Years with no Major Hurricanes were:</B> 1949-1956, 1958, 1960-1966, 1968-1970, 1977


<B>Years with Major Hurricanes being of Major Hurricane intensity on or after October 20 were:</B> 1957, 1959, 1972, 1975, 1978-1979, 1985-1986, 1990, 1998, 2002


<B>Years since 1979 with Hurricanes in action on or after October 20: </B>1979, 1981-1983, 1985-1986, 1990-1991, 1997-1998, 2001-2002.
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 21, 2003 8:38 pm

Thanks tropical for those stats but I think that Patricia may have a chance to be the only major this 2003 season for the EPAC.
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#18 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Oct 21, 2003 8:48 pm

tropicalweatherwatcher wrote:<B>Years since 1979 with Hurricanes in action on or after October 20: </B>1979, 1981-1983, 1985-1986, 1990-1991, 1997-1998, 2001-2002.

I looked through the data and couldn't find any hurricane that formed since 1993.
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Anonymous

Still need to watch...

#19 Postby Anonymous » Tue Oct 21, 2003 8:52 pm

We still need to watch for the Caribbean.
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#20 Postby MGC » Tue Oct 21, 2003 8:57 pm

don't trust any east pac stats before the satellite area. I'm sure there were several major hurricanes in the seasons that one is not recorded......MGC
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