ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Still holding at 60 mph

[Hurricaneman]

Still holding at 60 mph

They probably won’t upgrade until recon is in there or an eye is very evident and visible

[SFLcane]

Now 50mph approaching SFL 11am.. NHC

[Aric Dunn]

They are being very conservative this year. Anyway. Its well on its way.. and just like every other time. Expect it to be a hurricane before the offical forecast says.

[Evil Jeremy]

SE FL now at the very edge of the 5 day cone, with a TS forecast in the Bahamas. One more advisory and we will be entering the cone, sooner than I thought.

[GCANE]

Windsat showed some 80 to 85 knt barbs about 4-1/2 hours ago.

[wx98]

The forecast has now been moved up to it becoming a hurricane by tomorrow evening, but that will likely be this evening

[Hurricane Jed]

Thought they would have gone 65mph. Oh well, gotta wait for recon

[Hurricaneman]

Windsat showed some 80 to 85 knt barbs about 4-1/2 hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/3w5pyf6.jpg

The NHC is underestimating the current intensity, but the thing is the recon will probably show something significantly stronger than the advisory package shows and could be a pretty significant hurricane when you look at that image

[ObsessedMiami]

Looks like I'm hitting up Publix tonight.... and refilling that propane tank.

good idea, we havent even hit prime time for sofla..you can always drink the water later and fill your tank with generator gas..im waiting another day

I had already vowed to wait until Tuesday night to see if I fill the gas cans for the generator. I learned the hard way during Irma. but I might just go this evening. I can always put it in the car if nothing pans out.

[Hurricaneman]

The forecast has now been moved up to it becoming a hurricane by tomorrow evening, but that will likely be this evening

Wouldn’t be surprised if recon found a cat 2 hurricane with the way this is coming together

[northjaxpro]

Windsat showed some 80 to 85 knt barbs about 4-1/2 hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/3w5pyf6.jpg

The NHC is underestimating the current intensity, but the thing is the recon will probably show something significantly stronger than the advisory package shows and could be a pretty significant hurricane when you look at that image

I am inclined to agree with you on this assessment right now.

[hohnywx]

Need images people:

[Aric Dunn]

Good discussion. They covered all the basis.

Just waiting for recon. To confirm likely being a hurricane.

[Kazmit]

You gotta hand it to the NHC for forecasting Dorian becoming a hurricane from the very start when virtually no models were showing it. Many were doubting it would reach that point, but it is certainly almost there, and ahead of schedule too.

[Evil Jeremy]

4. Any potential impacts from Dorian in the Bahamas and Florida
later this week are highly uncertain, given the potential for the
system to interact with the high terrain of Hispaniola.

And here..... we... go

[Weatherboy1]

Pretty interesting NHC discussion here. Certainly makes you pay attention if you live in FL ...

On Wednesday, Dorian is forecast to turn northwestward toward a weakness in the
ridge, which could allow the cyclone to pass near or between
western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. By late
Thursday and Friday, all of the model guidance indicates that the
ridge will build back as an upper-level trough/low weakens and lifts
out to the north, which should result in Dorian turning back toward
the west-northwest in the vicinity of the Bahamas. The new NHC track
forecast has been nudged slightly to the right or north of the
previous one and lies close to the tightly clustered consensus
models HCCA, FSSE, TVCN, and TVCX.

[ObsessedMiami]

Good discussion. They covered all the basis.

Just waiting for recon. To confirm likely being a hurricane.

Stewart's hand is steady on the tiller.

[NDG]

ASCAT this morning missed it so have to wait for the recon.

[PTrackerLA]

You gotta hand it to the NHC for forecasting Dorian becoming a hurricane from the very start when virtually no models were showing it. Many were doubting it would reach that point, but it is certainly almost there, and ahead of schedule too.

Basically this entire board . NHC is doing a great job, ALWAYS listen to them over anyone else.