ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#641 Postby wx98 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:48 am

Still holding at 60 mph
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#642 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:49 am

wx98 wrote:Still holding at 60 mph


They probably won’t upgrade until recon is in there or an eye is very evident and visible
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#643 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:50 am

Now 50mph approaching SFL 11am.. NHC
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#644 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:50 am

They are being very conservative this year. Anyway. Its well on its way.. and just like every other time. Expect it to be a hurricane before the offical forecast says.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#645 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:50 am

SE FL now at the very edge of the 5 day cone, with a TS forecast in the Bahamas. One more advisory and we will be entering the cone, sooner than I thought.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#646 Postby GCANE » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:52 am

Windsat showed some 80 to 85 knt barbs about 4-1/2 hours ago.

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#647 Postby wx98 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:53 am

The forecast has now been moved up to it becoming a hurricane by tomorrow evening, but that will likely be this evening
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#648 Postby Hurricane Jed » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:55 am

Thought they would have gone 65mph. Oh well, gotta wait for recon
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#649 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:56 am

GCANE wrote:Windsat showed some 80 to 85 knt barbs about 4-1/2 hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/3w5pyf6.jpg

The NHC is underestimating the current intensity, but the thing is the recon will probably show something significantly stronger than the advisory package shows and could be a pretty significant hurricane when you look at that image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#650 Postby ObsessedMiami » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:58 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:Looks like I'm hitting up Publix tonight.... and refilling that propane tank.
good idea, we havent even hit prime time for sofla..you can always drink the water later and fill your tank with generator gas..im waiting another day :roll:


I had already vowed to wait until Tuesday night to see if I fill the gas cans for the generator. I learned the hard way during Irma. but I might just go this evening. I can always put it in the car if nothing pans out.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#651 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:58 am

wx98 wrote:The forecast has now been moved up to it becoming a hurricane by tomorrow evening, but that will likely be this evening

Wouldn’t be surprised if recon found a cat 2 hurricane with the way this is coming together
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#652 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:58 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
GCANE wrote:Windsat showed some 80 to 85 knt barbs about 4-1/2 hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/3w5pyf6.jpg

The NHC is underestimating the current intensity, but the thing is the recon will probably show something significantly stronger than the advisory package shows and could be a pretty significant hurricane when you look at that image



I am inclined to agree with you on this assessment right now.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#653 Postby hohnywx » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:00 am

Need images people:

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#654 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:03 am

Good discussion. They covered all the basis.

Just waiting for recon. To confirm likely being a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#655 Postby Kazmit » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:04 am

You gotta hand it to the NHC for forecasting Dorian becoming a hurricane from the very start when virtually no models were showing it. Many were doubting it would reach that point, but it is certainly almost there, and ahead of schedule too.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#656 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:05 am

4. Any potential impacts from Dorian in the Bahamas and Florida
later this week are highly uncertain, given the potential for the
system to interact with the high terrain of Hispaniola.

And here..... we... go
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#657 Postby Weatherboy1 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:06 am

Pretty interesting NHC discussion here. Certainly makes you pay attention if you live in FL ...

On Wednesday, Dorian is forecast to turn northwestward toward a weakness in the
ridge, which could allow the cyclone to pass near or between
western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. By late
Thursday and Friday, all of the model guidance indicates that the
ridge will build back as an upper-level trough/low weakens and lifts
out to the north, which should result in Dorian turning back toward
the west-northwest in the vicinity of the Bahamas. The new NHC track
forecast has been nudged slightly to the right or north of the
previous one and lies close to the tightly clustered consensus
models HCCA, FSSE, TVCN, and TVCX.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#658 Postby ObsessedMiami » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:06 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Good discussion. They covered all the basis.

Just waiting for recon. To confirm likely being a hurricane.

Stewart's hand is steady on the tiller.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#659 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:06 am

ASCAT this morning missed it so have to wait for the recon.

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#660 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:06 am

Kazmit wrote:You gotta hand it to the NHC for forecasting Dorian becoming a hurricane from the very start when virtually no models were showing it. Many were doubting it would reach that point, but it is certainly almost there, and ahead of schedule too.



Basically this entire board :lol: . NHC is doing a great job, ALWAYS listen to them over anyone else.
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