ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dougiefresh]

Finally Recon is on its way..

We will let you guys know just how strong it is cause by the looks of it the Recon will be flying around overhead us when he arrives.

[northjaxpro]

Finally Recon is on its way.. taking off from the abc islands.. so a little wait.

It's about time.

[Aric Dunn]

Finally Recon is on its way..

We will let you guys know just how strong it is cause by the looks of it the Recon will be flying around overhead us when he arrives.

lol thank you.

[Aric Dunn]

The convection is wrapped around on radar. soo there is likely a low level eye. but mid level and up it is essentially starting over again. Still could be a HUrricane.

[jlauderdal]

Key passage on future intensity from NHC discussion below. Main point: IF Dorian survives/avoids Hispanola, the environment in the Bahamas looks conducive to re-strengthening before a (potential) future landfall in FL ...

Most of the global models along with the statistical-
dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models are now showing pronounced
strengthening while Dorian is moving near or through the Bahamas, so
the official forecast shows a significant change to the previous
one at 96 and 120 hours. However, confidence in the intensity
forecast at days 4 and 5 is very low given the uncertainty about how
much of Dorian's core will interact with Hispaniola.

Nhc mentioning florida this far out is a big red flag to residents, we better hope for some big league land interaction and even with that, regeneration can happen quickly in this setup

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[Evil Jeremy]

Certainly enough to get me to the gas station tonight or tomorrow just in case

I'm going tonight. We're in the cone about 3 advisories quicker than I expected last night.... Tomorrow night I think the rush will be underway. Early bird gets the refilled propane tank.

[Siker]

I was in Barbados for a week in the spring doing coral research. We looked at coral boulders atop 20 foot cliffs on the eastern tip of the island and tried to figure out if hurricane waves could move them. Determined it would take a decent hurricane to generate sufficient surge and wave activity to reach the tops of those cliffs and move boulders. Definitely going to be watching beach webcams anyway while there's any light tonight and tomorrow morning.

[jdray]

I'm not a fan of JM but I would agree with your sentiment

i am fan of
Craig Setzer
i never watch john or watch ch6 news

let us know what setzer says...i suspect on tonights news there will be some disagreement between Setzer and morales after the 5 pm nhc disco...morales might ride this island disruption idea to the bitter end

I wish George Winterling still did hurricane forecasting here in the JAX area.
We have some decent mets, but none like George.

[Nimbus]

Finally Recon is on its way.. taking off from the abc islands.. so a little wait.

They will fly in during the recent pulse so maybe tonight's models will get a better initialization.
A stronger system will track a little right and Hispaniola is pretty flat, nothing over 1000 ft high along the northeast shore. Also Puerto Rico is probably on the strong side of either a tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane if the GFS initializes a stronger system.

[Kingarabian]

Finally Recon is on its way.. taking off from the abc islands.. so a little wait.

They will fly in during the recent pulse so maybe tonight's models will get a better initialization.
A stronger system will track a little right and Hispaniola is pretty flat, nothing over 1000 ft high along the northeast shore. Also Puerto Rico is probably on the strong side of either a tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane if the GFS initializes a stronger system.

??

[hipshot]

The convection is wrapped around on radar. soo there is likely a low level eye. but mid level and up it is essentially starting over again. Still could be a HUrricane.

What are the "abc" islands?

[Highteeld]

Looks like an attempt at forming a little eye feature right now on VIS

[alienstorm]

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1166099935051296769

[CourierPR]

The convection is wrapped around on radar. soo there is likely a low level eye. but mid level and up it is essentially starting over again. Still could be a HUrricane.

What are the "abc" islands?

Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao.

[alienstorm]

Here is a good link to eastern Caribbean radars

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... Apes=44617

[hipshot]

The convection is wrapped around on radar. soo there is likely a low level eye. but mid level and up it is essentially starting over again. Still could be a HUrricane.

What are the "abc" islands?

Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao.

Thanks

[GCANE]

A couple dry drops hundreds of miles from the CoC and they were just about to bring Bones out.
I expected Wxman57 to to show up any minute with his surface obs.

[TheProfessor]

I was in Barbados for a week in the spring doing coral research. We looked at coral boulders atop 20 foot cliffs on the eastern tip of the island and tried to figure out if hurricane waves could move them. Determined it would take a decent hurricane to generate sufficient surge and wave activity to reach the tops of those cliffs and move boulders. Definitely going to be watching beach webcams anyway while there's any light tonight and tomorrow morning.

I hope you got some time for sight seeing, It's a beautiful island.

[Kingarabian]

I think Recon will find a moderate TS. Core still has the same look from about 24 hours ago:

[ObsessedMiami]

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1166099935051296769

My dad, God rest his soul, worshipped the ground Don Noe walked on. If he said it, it was serious. Setzer is about as good as it get nowadays for SFL Mets. Take heed