Aric Dunn wrote:Finally Recon is on its way..
We will let you guys know just how strong it is cause by the looks of it the Recon will be flying around overhead us when he arrives.
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Aric Dunn wrote:Finally Recon is on its way..
Aric Dunn wrote:Finally Recon is on its way.. taking off from the abc islands.. so a little wait.
Dougiefresh wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Finally Recon is on its way..
We will let you guys know just how strong it is cause by the looks of it the Recon will be flying around overhead us when he arrives.
Nhc mentioning florida this far out is a big red flag to residents, we better hope for some big league land interaction and even with that, regeneration can happen quickly in this setupWeatherboy1 wrote:Key passage on future intensity from NHC discussion below. Main point: IF Dorian survives/avoids Hispanola, the environment in the Bahamas looks conducive to re-strengthening before a (potential) future landfall in FL ...
Most of the global models along with the statistical-
dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models are now showing pronounced
strengthening while Dorian is moving near or through the Bahamas, so
the official forecast shows a significant change to the previous
one at 96 and 120 hours. However, confidence in the intensity
forecast at days 4 and 5 is very low given the uncertainty about how
much of Dorian's core will interact with Hispaniola.
ObsessedMiami wrote:Certainly enough to get me to the gas station tonight or tomorrow just in case
jlauderdal wrote:floridasun78 wrote:ObsessedMiami wrote:
I'm not a fan of JM but I would agree with your sentiment
i am fan of
Craig Setzer
i never watch john or watch ch6 news
let us know what setzer says...i suspect on tonights news there will be some disagreement between Setzer and morales after the 5 pm nhc disco...morales might ride this island disruption idea to the bitter end
Aric Dunn wrote:Finally Recon is on its way.. taking off from the abc islands.. so a little wait.
Nimbus wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Finally Recon is on its way.. taking off from the abc islands.. so a little wait.
They will fly in during the recent pulse so maybe tonight's models will get a better initialization.
A stronger system will track a little right and Hispaniola is pretty flat, nothing over 1000 ft high along the northeast shore. Also Puerto Rico is probably on the strong side of either a tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane if the GFS initializes a stronger system.
Aric Dunn wrote:The convection is wrapped around on radar. soo there is likely a low level eye. but mid level and up it is essentially starting over again. Still could be a HUrricane.
hipshot wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:The convection is wrapped around on radar. soo there is likely a low level eye. but mid level and up it is essentially starting over again. Still could be a HUrricane.
What are the "abc" islands?
CourierPR wrote:hipshot wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:The convection is wrapped around on radar. soo there is likely a low level eye. but mid level and up it is essentially starting over again. Still could be a HUrricane.
What are the "abc" islands?
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao.
Siker wrote:I was in Barbados for a week in the spring doing coral research. We looked at coral boulders atop 20 foot cliffs on the eastern tip of the island and tried to figure out if hurricane waves could move them. Determined it would take a decent hurricane to generate sufficient surge and wave activity to reach the tops of those cliffs and move boulders. Definitely going to be watching beach webcams anyway while there's any light tonight and tomorrow morning.
alienstorm wrote:https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1166099935051296769
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