ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Very high SST anomalies around the islands.
May effect intensification once the eastern feeder band gets over the islands.
Also, should see better outflow channel then from the ULH anchored to the NE.

[OuterBanker]

Will td6 have any influence on the path or strength of Dorian?

TD 6 has become really annoying.

[drezee]

Recon just verified a 50mph TS. No doubt about it. Clean dataset

[robbielyn]

A 7?

Yes on radar there an elongated green area. it either is reorganizing and it will get slightly larger or it came unraveled some. Don’t worry about if it doesn’t mean anything. it isn’t as round or more symmetrical as yesterday. no biggie. i know once it gets past the islands towards puerto rico it is supposed to be a hurricane. hope it gets shredded in hispaniola although it isn’t looking like it.

It’s actually no longer forecast to become a hurricane before PR and Hispaniola.

oh ok. i didn’t see the graphics i read the discussion and it said hurricane watch and hurricane conditions for PR. but since we are within 24 hours of landfall, if I had thought it through, I would have realized they downgraded to just TS or else we would have seen warning instead of watch. Thanks for the update.

[GCANE]

Looks like it passed thru a tower at 29 mm/hr rain rate.
Just before it hit the tower Peak SFMR: 49 knots. Peak FL: 49 knots.
BTW, they are flying at 843 mb.

[Laser30033003]

Does anyone have a link to the satellite view with a measuring tool....so I can Measure the size of the storm....I can't seem to find it ...

[robbielyn]

Will td6 have any influence on the path or strength of Dorian?

TD 6 has become really annoying.

better moisture envelope for Dorian and a slight weakness to allow mid to north fl landfall vs. so fl but that ridge is strong so won’t get to carolinas or OOS from what I have read on here.

[Bostonriff]

Q. Between the HMON or HWRF models, which has a better track record?

(I ask because the HMON has had Dorian sneak under Haiti on both the 00Z and 06Z runs.)

[Blown Away]

I've seen this movie before many times... If Dorian hangs on, it is a very rare occurrence to have a storm landfall from the SE in E Central/North Florida (Vero to Jacksonville). The movie ends with the ridge isn't strong enough and allows a recurve away from Florida or ridge is underestimated and storm moves across Florida/Straits anywhere south of Vero... Once recon does that "flight" to sample the high pressure ahead of the storm, we get our answer... I expect that recon @72 hours from a potential Florida landfall...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Does anyone have a link to the satellite view with a measuring tool....so I can Measure the size of the storm....I can't seem to find it ...

This one maybe?
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/

[GCANE]

Much improved rain rate and off-the-scale 85 GHz

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1166320000426270720

[AutoPenalti]

It’s really trying...

[NDG]

At least recon is showing that winds are back up to 50 knots.
I think St Lucia might have disrupted its LLC due to its 3k feet high hills.

[Nancy Smar]

2019/8/27 12:15:16: [05L Changed] 05L DORIAN 190827 1200 14.0N 61.3W ATL 45 1005

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1166320000426270720

IMO, is not so much the velocity of the mid level shear, is the mid level dry air that the mid level shear has induced into Doria during the past 24 hours.

[hipshot]

Wow, Martinique looks like it is getting hammered. Hope all are OK.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, looks like the islands and the turbulent flow temporary disrupted the circ. But looking at radar.. i would surmise on recons next pass it is farther north closer to the south coast of martinique.

Center relocation. .. path of least resistnace. And localizer pressure drops from the upslope.

Lets see what recon finds..

[NDG]

Either this is the mid level circulation or the LLC is reforming further NE. But at least is looking better on radar.

[Aric Dunn]

Either this is the mid level circulation or the LLC is reforming further NE. But at least is looking better on radar.

https://i.imgur.com/ENrJ4tL.gif

It cant be the mid levels.

It is very close to the radar site.

Old center may still be to the south a bit. But convection is increasing with this one farther north.. soo relocation looks likely.