ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11500
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1141 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:53 am

Very high SST anomalies around the islands.
May effect intensification once the eastern feeder band gets over the islands.
Also, should see better outflow channel then from the ULH anchored to the NE.
1 likes   

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1733
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1142 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:56 am

Will td6 have any influence on the path or strength of Dorian?

TD 6 has become really annoying.
1 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1143 Postby drezee » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:56 am

Recon just verified a 50mph TS. No doubt about it. Clean dataset
3 likes   

User avatar
robbielyn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1298
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 9:45 am
Location: brooksville, fl

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1144 Postby robbielyn » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:57 am

wx98 wrote:
robbielyn wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
A 7?

Yes on radar there an elongated green area. it either is reorganizing and it will get slightly larger or it came unraveled some. Don’t worry about if it doesn’t mean anything. it isn’t as round or more symmetrical as yesterday. no biggie. i know once it gets past the islands towards puerto rico it is supposed to be a hurricane. hope it gets shredded in hispaniola although it isn’t looking like it.

It’s actually no longer forecast to become a hurricane before PR and Hispaniola.

oh ok. i didn’t see the graphics i read the discussion and it said hurricane watch and hurricane conditions for PR. but since we are within 24 hours of landfall, if I had thought it through, I would have realized they downgraded to just TS or else we would have seen warning instead of watch. Thanks for the update.
0 likes   
Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting. :D

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11500
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1145 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:57 am

Looks like it passed thru a tower at 29 mm/hr rain rate.
Just before it hit the tower Peak SFMR: 49 knots. Peak FL: 49 knots.
BTW, they are flying at 843 mb.
0 likes   

Laser30033003
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 52
Age: 55
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 1:24 pm
Location: Seminole, Fl

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1146 Postby Laser30033003 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:59 am

Does anyone have a link to the satellite view with a measuring tool....so I can Measure the size of the storm....I can't seem to find it ...
0 likes   

User avatar
robbielyn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1298
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 9:45 am
Location: brooksville, fl

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1147 Postby robbielyn » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:59 am

OuterBanker wrote:Will td6 have any influence on the path or strength of Dorian?

TD 6 has become really annoying.


better moisture envelope for Dorian and a slight weakness to allow mid to north fl landfall vs. so fl but that ridge is strong so won’t get to carolinas or OOS from what I have read on here.
0 likes   
Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting. :D

User avatar
Bostonriff
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 33
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:23 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1148 Postby Bostonriff » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:01 am

Q. Between the HMON or HWRF models, which has a better track record?

(I ask because the HMON has had Dorian sneak under Haiti on both the 00Z and 06Z runs.)
0 likes   
Do not bet the ranch based on any non-official forecasts that may appear in the post above no matter how strongly argued they may be, because the fates are capricious and have Murphy's Law on speed-dial.

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1149 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:04 am

I've seen this movie before many times... If Dorian hangs on, it is a very rare occurrence to have a storm landfall from the SE in E Central/North Florida (Vero to Jacksonville). The movie ends with the ridge isn't strong enough and allows a recurve away from Florida or ridge is underestimated and storm moves across Florida/Straits anywhere south of Vero... Once recon does that "flight" to sample the high pressure ahead of the storm, we get our answer... I expect that recon @72 hours from a potential Florida landfall...
2 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

Chris_in_Tampa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5075
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
Contact:

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1150 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:06 am

Laser30033003 wrote:Does anyone have a link to the satellite view with a measuring tool....so I can Measure the size of the storm....I can't seem to find it ...


This one maybe?
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11500
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1151 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:07 am

Much improved rain rate and off-the-scale 85 GHz

Image

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1152 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:13 am

3 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1153 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:13 am

It’s really trying...
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1154 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:14 am

At least recon is showing that winds are back up to 50 knots.
I think St Lucia might have disrupted its LLC due to its 3k feet high hills.
2 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1155 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:15 am

2019/8/27 12:15:16: [05L Changed] 05L DORIAN 190827 1200 14.0N 61.3W ATL 45 1005
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1156 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:16 am



IMO, is not so much the velocity of the mid level shear, is the mid level dry air that the mid level shear has induced into Doria during the past 24 hours.
2 likes   

hipshot
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 591
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:18 pm
Location: Dallas, Texas

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1157 Postby hipshot » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:17 am

Wow, Martinique looks like it is getting hammered. Hope all are OK.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1158 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:22 am

Yeah, looks like the islands and the turbulent flow temporary disrupted the circ. But looking at radar.. i would surmise on recons next pass it is farther north closer to the south coast of martinique.

Center relocation. .. path of least resistnace. And localizer pressure drops from the upslope.

Lets see what recon finds..
4 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1159 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:26 am

Either this is the mid level circulation or the LLC is reforming further NE. But at least is looking better on radar.

Image
2 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1160 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:30 am

NDG wrote:Either this is the mid level circulation or the LLC is reforming further NE. But at least is looking better on radar.

https://i.imgur.com/ENrJ4tL.gif



It cant be the mid levels.

It is very close to the radar site.

Old center may still be to the south a bit. But convection is increasing with this one farther north.. soo relocation looks likely.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests