Blown Away wrote:I've seen this movie before many times... If Dorian hangs on, it is a very rare occurrence to have a storm landfall from the SE in E Central/North Florida (Vero to Jacksonville). The movie ends with the ridge isn't strong enough and allows a recurve away from Florida or ridge is underestimated and storm moves across Florida/Straits anywhere south of Vero... Once recon does that "flight" to sample the high pressure ahead of the storm, we get our answer... I expect that recon @72 hours from a potential Florida landfall...
We've all seen that movie many times. I kind of agree with you, assuming it can make it to our neck of the woods intact, it's typically either a recurve possibly clipping NC, or the ridge is stronger and it's Martin county to the Keys if not the Straits. Both seem historically much more likely than, say, a WNW-traveling storm inbound to Cocoa Beach, Melbourne or St. Augustine.
