ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Hammy]

https://i.imgur.com/jK1UWCl.gif
GFS-Legacy says no to the CONUS...

Same model had Florence out to sea on almost every run up until a few days before landfall.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Even though the plot initialization was wrong the GFS does show the NE US high moving E quickly - good news if correct...

Yea, I'm always suspicious of the GFS when it tries to pull this trick after it tried to take Irma well east of Florida.

Yeah I'm not buying that even from the dollar store.

[p1nheadlarry]

Cat 6 on the HWRF...

Somebody had to do it...


https://i.imgur.com/lCHkdO6.png

HES ANGRY!

These 18z suites are madness

[SFLcane]

North trend continues on the 18z suite.. Whether it’s valid or not based on the bad center relocation who knows. Some may think premature but I am feeling a bit better for extreme south Florida. Plenty of time to watch but tonight atleast it seems this west turn should be gradual I think models were overdoing the ridging. Hope it goes out to sea

[Bocadude85]

The models are all over the place, we see this with a lot of Florida storms where they initially show a S.Fla threat and then slowly propagate up to the Carolinas only to swing back south to Florida. Hurricane Irma is a prime example, and we all know how that played out.

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/jK1UWCl.gif
GFS-Legacy says no to the CONUS...

Same model had Florence out to sea on almost every run up until a few days before landfall.

GFS has a right bias and Euro a left bias from my years watching these storms...

[GTStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/jK1UWCl.gif
GFS-Legacy says no to the CONUS...

WOW that's a HUGE change!

[toad strangler]

North trend continues on the 18z suite.. Whether it’s valid or not based on the bad center relocation who knows. Some may think premature but I am feeling a bit better for extreme south Florida. Plenty of time to watch but tonight atleast it seems this west turn should be gradual I think models were overdoing the ridging. Hope it goes out to sea

OTS scenario is absolutley plausible after watching this 18z suite. Everything is plausible this far out. There will be more changes.

[toad strangler]

Cat 6 on the HWRF...

Somebody had to do it...


https://i.imgur.com/lCHkdO6.png

A model run is a model run is a model run!

[SouthFLTropics]

It seems that all of the models went off the reservation a little bit there during 18z.

It's not called "Happy Hour" for nothing! It lived up to its name today.

[Highteeld]

[Wakeknight]

https://i.imgur.com/jK1UWCl.gif
GFS-Legacy says no to the CONUS...

A la Floyd...

[Aric Dunn]

before anyone starts posting ... 18z Euro also has not inputed new location yet.. have to wait for 00z.

I can tell you that regarless of its poor initialized postion.. the EURO takes it over far eastern PR now.

[Hammy]

Highteed please delete previous post. We are in S Florida not Chicago where that image has no life or death meaning...

Relax. It's a valid shot from model run. Nobody is wishing death on anybody.

A bit off topic but it's really amazing looking at that run and knowing how far the model resolution has come.

[Kingarabian]

before anyone starts posting ... 18z Euro also has not inputed new location yet.. have to wait for 00z.

I can tell you that regarless of its poor initialized postion.. the EURO takes it over far eastern PR now.

Bombs it out though -- 975mb.

[GTStorm]

It seems that all of the models went off the reservation a little bit there during 18z.

It's not called "Happy Hour" for nothing! It lived up to its name today.

Or.....maybe they're on to something?

[BobHarlem]

For what it's worth, when Irma was at this longitude, (It was further north in latitude) Models had it clipping e. Florida and then making landfall in South Carolina and the official track suggested Savannah.

Link to old Irma model graphic to avoid confusion (Not going to post the image)

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166505098589147136

[Hammy]

For what it's worth, when Irma was at this longitude, (It was further north in latitude) Models had it clipping e. Florida and then making landfall in South Carolina and the official track suggested Savannah.

Link to old Irma model graphic to avoid confusion (Not going to post the image)

Underestimated the ridge?

[GTStorm]

For what it's worth, when Irma was at this longitude, (It was further north in latitude) Models had it clipping e. Florida and then making landfall in South Carolina and the official track suggested Savannah.

Link to old Irma model graphic to avoid confusion (Not going to post the image)

Yes, and I remember feeling very good about that...5 days out, if you're the bullseye, then you're probably gonna be OK, statistically speaking. At least that's been my experience.