ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Hammy
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1081 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:05 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/jK1UWCl.gif
GFS-Legacy says no to the CONUS...


Same model had Florence out to sea on almost every run up until a few days before landfall.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1082 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:05 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Even though the plot initialization was wrong the GFS does show the NE US high moving E quickly - good news if correct...


Yea, I'm always suspicious of the GFS when it tries to pull this trick after it tried to take Irma well east of Florida.

Yeah I'm not buying that even from the dollar store.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1083 Postby p1nheadlarry » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:06 pm

Highteeld wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Cat 6 on the HWRF... :P

Somebody had to do it...


https://i.imgur.com/lCHkdO6.png


HES ANGRY!

These 18z suites are madness
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1084 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:07 pm

North trend continues on the 18z suite.. Whether it’s valid or not based on the bad center relocation who knows. Some may think premature but I am feeling a bit better for extreme south Florida. Plenty of time to watch but tonight atleast it seems this west turn should be gradual I think models were overdoing the ridging. Hope it goes out to sea
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1085 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:08 pm

The models are all over the place, we see this with a lot of Florida storms where they initially show a S.Fla threat and then slowly propagate up to the Carolinas only to swing back south to Florida. Hurricane Irma is a prime example, and we all know how that played out.
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1086 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:08 pm

Hammy wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/jK1UWCl.gif
GFS-Legacy says no to the CONUS...


Same model had Florence out to sea on almost every run up until a few days before landfall.


GFS has a right bias and Euro a left bias from my years watching these storms...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1087 Postby GTStorm » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:08 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/jK1UWCl.gif
GFS-Legacy says no to the CONUS...


WOW that's a HUGE change!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1088 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:10 pm

SFLcane wrote:North trend continues on the 18z suite.. Whether it’s valid or not based on the bad center relocation who knows. Some may think premature but I am feeling a bit better for extreme south Florida. Plenty of time to watch but tonight atleast it seems this west turn should be gradual I think models were overdoing the ridging. Hope it goes out to sea



OTS scenario is absolutley plausible after watching this 18z suite. Everything is plausible this far out. There will be more changes.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1089 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:12 pm

Highteeld wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Cat 6 on the HWRF... :P

Somebody had to do it...


https://i.imgur.com/lCHkdO6.png


A model run is a model run is a model run!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1090 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:13 pm

It seems that all of the models went off the reservation a little bit there during 18z. :double:

It's not called "Happy Hour" for nothing! It lived up to its name today. :Partytime:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1091 Postby Highteeld » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:13 pm

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1092 Postby Wakeknight » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:13 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/jK1UWCl.gif
GFS-Legacy says no to the CONUS...


A la Floyd...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1093 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:16 pm

before anyone starts posting ... 18z Euro also has not inputed new location yet.. have to wait for 00z.

I can tell you that regarless of its poor initialized postion.. the EURO takes it over far eastern PR now.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1094 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:17 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Highteed please delete previous post. We are in S Florida not Chicago where that image has no life or death meaning...



Relax. It's a valid shot from model run. Nobody is wishing death on anybody.


A bit off topic but it's really amazing looking at that run and knowing how far the model resolution has come.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1095 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:before anyone starts posting ... 18z Euro also has not inputed new location yet.. have to wait for 00z.

I can tell you that regarless of its poor initialized postion.. the EURO takes it over far eastern PR now.

Bombs it out though -- 975mb.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1096 Postby GTStorm » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:19 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:It seems that all of the models went off the reservation a little bit there during 18z. :double:

It's not called "Happy Hour" for nothing! It lived up to its name today. :Partytime:


Or.....maybe they're on to something?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1097 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:24 pm

For what it's worth, when Irma was at this longitude, (It was further north in latitude) Models had it clipping e. Florida and then making landfall in South Carolina and the official track suggested Savannah.

Link to old Irma model graphic to avoid confusion (Not going to post the image)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1098 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:26 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1099 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:27 pm

BobHarlem wrote:For what it's worth, when Irma was at this longitude, (It was further north in latitude) Models had it clipping e. Florida and then making landfall in South Carolina and the official track suggested Savannah.

Link to old Irma model graphic to avoid confusion (Not going to post the image)


Underestimated the ridge?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1100 Postby GTStorm » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:28 pm

BobHarlem wrote:For what it's worth, when Irma was at this longitude, (It was further north in latitude) Models had it clipping e. Florida and then making landfall in South Carolina and the official track suggested Savannah.

Link to old Irma model graphic to avoid confusion (Not going to post the image)


Yes, and I remember feeling very good about that...5 days out, if you're the bullseye, then you're probably gonna be OK, statistically speaking. At least that's been my experience.
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