ATL: DORIAN - Models

[caneseddy]

CMC is east on this run and slower. Heading WNW toward West Palm Beach but the ridge looks like its starting to erode at 108hr.

Landfall over West Palm Beach moving due west over Lake Okeechobee..shift south

[toad strangler]

CMC landfalls in Martin County, FL it looks like. Don’t hold your breath

[SouthFloridawx]

So, I think I figured something out. Please just follow/bear with me for a minute. There is a mid to upper level low/feature to the NW of Dorian and South of Erin.

If you look at the models in the short term through 60 hours, Erin isn't as much of a factor as the mid/upper level low I've pointed out above.
Run the lops and you'll see the feature moving. With the GFS and the Legacy is move slowly to the west, helping to keep the ridge broken down. With CMC and ICON it moves more quickly to the west allowing for the ridge to build in faster.
GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2019082800&fh=6
GFS: Legacy: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-legacy&region=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2019082800&fh=12
CMC: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2019082800&fh=12
ICON: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2019082800&fh=12

I'm going to watch and see if the other models pick up on this. I think it may be something additional to watch in the short term.

[AdamFirst]

HWRF is running. Showing an intensifying storm in the short term on approach to Puerto Rico.

[MrJames]

CMC is not a fan of Florida...

[LarryWx]

Larry,

UK last couple seasons has had an E bias as much as it has had a west. It shows a SW hook. We'll see Saturday or Sunday if it was right.

Steve, It may end up right like it was for Irma but I distinctly recall it being too far left/west quite a bit more often than the reverse over the last few years when it is on the left side of the guidance envelope. Apparently the reason is too much ridging being assumed to its north. That being said, the CMC is also left for now. So, we’ll see.

[AdamFirst]

CMC run is almost identical to Jeanne's track in a way. Begins to curve toward the NW over the state, not quite getting to the Gulf and slowing down considerably, setting up rain event for the northern half of the state.

[AubreyStorm]

HWRF is running. Showing an intensifying storm in the short term on approach to Puerto Rico.

Please link......

[sponger]

CMC run is almost identical to Jeanne's track in a way. Begins to curve toward the NW over the state, not quite getting to the Gulf and slowing down considerably, setting up rain event for the northern half of the state.

That was ugly for Saint augustine. The entire 3 day Labor Day weekend was spent getting blasted by the dirty side of the storm. Then off to work with no power for a week. Brutal.

[AtlanticWind]

Its hard to trust the models too much at 120+hours on this storm

Yesterday they had this interacting with Hispanola and now it looks like
it may clip the east side of Puerto Rico .

[AdamFirst]

For what it's worth, the very end of the ICON run has a 'cane heading toward the Mississippi Gulf Coast (beyond 170hr~).

HWRF is running. Showing an intensifying storm in the short term on approach to Puerto Rico.

Please link......

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2800&fh=21

Island weakens it a bit but the core looks intact. Strengthening again as it departs the island.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here's a GIF that mid/upper level feature I'm talking about.

[StPeteMike]

SouthFloridawx

I’m probably bonkers here and going to watch the massive low pressure system near Nova Scotia. If it dips down far enough in the Northern Atlantic, before shooting back north between Greenland and the U.K., it might push the ridge further south and west. Possibly might cause that ULL to cut off from Erin and get stuck going west instead of tailing Erin and setting up a weakness for Dorian to recurve.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here's the GFS on that mid/upper level low:

[sponger]

CMC out to hour 90

https://i.imgur.com/JBaKxN6.png

Very strong ridging!

[SouthFloridawx]

It's probably both. I mean, it's all linked.

SouthFloridawx
I’m probably bonkers here and going to watch the massive low pressure system near Nova Scotia. If it dips down far enough in the Northern Atlantic, before shooting back north between Greenland and the U.K., it might push the ridge further south and west. Possibly might cause that ULL to cut off from Erin and get stuck going west instead of tailing Erin and setting up a weakness for Dorian to recurve.

[Highteeld]

HMON is bombing out this run

[sponger]

Euro is running! Told myself I would not stay up for this.

[STRiZZY]

Euro is running! Told myself I would not stay up for this.

Looks to have initialized properly.

[USTropics]

00z GFS ensembles: