ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1301 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:52 am

0z HWRF is heading due west towards the space coast
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1302 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:54 am

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ECMWF 24H
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1303 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:56 am

USTropics wrote:00z GFS ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/i74SUtS.png



The vast majority of them are far south of the operational. I'd expect the operational gfs to start shifting back south over the next few runs.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1304 Postby bamajammer4eva » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:58 am

GEFS doesn't seem to know.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1305 Postby HDGator » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:59 am

USTropics wrote:00z GFS ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/i74SUtS.png

Well, that's quite a shotgun hitting the whole state of Florida. That makes it look like the operational was an east outlier.
I guess we'll have to see how this pans out in future runs but it raises flags about their handle on that building ridge.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1306 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:59 am

USTropics wrote:00z GFS ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/i74SUtS.png


A lot more ensembles into S.Fla this time.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1307 Postby caneseddy » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:04 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
USTropics wrote:00z GFS ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/i74SUtS.png


A lot more ensembles into S.Fla this time.


For most of the recent runs the majority of GFS ensembles were clustered south of Lake Okeechobee except for the 18z run where they shifted more in line with the operational

Once again, South Florida is not out of the woods yet
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1308 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:05 am

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:eek:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1309 Postby LarryWx » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:08 am

0Z Euro further ENE than 12Z and similar to 18Z at hour 72. So, likely will come in further north than 12Z Euro and even small chance for close call recurve.
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:10 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1310 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:09 am

GFS and Euro comparisonImageImage

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1311 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:11 am

LarryWx wrote:0Z Euro further ENE than 12Z and similar to 18Z at hour 72. So, likely will come in further north than 12Z Euro and even small chance for close call recurve.


It’s actually SE of the 12z run, if you are hitting the previous run button on tropical tidbits you are comparing it to the 0z run from last night
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1312 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:12 am

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72HR
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1313 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:15 am

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96H
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1314 Postby LarryWx » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:15 am

At 96, 50 miles E of the 12Z run. Likely headed to centralish FL.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1315 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:15 am

Oooh boy very sharp west turn by Euro

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1316 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:16 am

:uarrow: Head on with the Abaco Islands @ 96hrs.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1317 Postby CourierPR » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:17 am

LarryWx wrote:At 96, 50 miles E of the 12Z run. Likely headed to centralish FL.


It looks like it goes slightly north of west compared to the previous frame.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1318 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:18 am

Euro. ImageImageImageImage

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1319 Postby bamajammer4eva » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:18 am

96 hr Euro/GFS comparison

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1320 Postby LarryWx » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:20 am

0Z Euro: Landfall Jupiter 114. Actually S of 12Z Euro due to more west heading near FL.
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