ATL: DORIAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1301 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:52 am

0z HWRF is heading due west towards the space coast
0 likes   

User avatar
STRiZZY
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 276
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:01 pm
Location: Largo, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1302 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:54 am

Image

ECMWF 24H
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9155
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1303 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:56 am

USTropics wrote:00z GFS ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/i74SUtS.png



The vast majority of them are far south of the operational. I'd expect the operational gfs to start shifting back south over the next few runs.
0 likes   

bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1304 Postby bamajammer4eva » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:58 am

GEFS doesn't seem to know.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HDGator
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 242
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2004 3:03 pm
Location: Lewisville, NC

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1305 Postby HDGator » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:59 am

USTropics wrote:00z GFS ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/i74SUtS.png

Well, that's quite a shotgun hitting the whole state of Florida. That makes it look like the operational was an east outlier.
I guess we'll have to see how this pans out in future runs but it raises flags about their handle on that building ridge.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1306 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:59 am

USTropics wrote:00z GFS ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/i74SUtS.png


A lot more ensembles into S.Fla this time.
0 likes   

caneseddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1172
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:31 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1307 Postby caneseddy » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:04 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
USTropics wrote:00z GFS ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/i74SUtS.png


A lot more ensembles into S.Fla this time.


For most of the recent runs the majority of GFS ensembles were clustered south of Lake Okeechobee except for the 18z run where they shifted more in line with the operational

Once again, South Florida is not out of the woods yet
0 likes   

User avatar
STRiZZY
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 276
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:01 pm
Location: Largo, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1308 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:05 am

Image
Image

:eek:
0 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6319
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1309 Postby LarryWx » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:08 am

0Z Euro further ENE than 12Z and similar to 18Z at hour 72. So, likely will come in further north than 12Z Euro and even small chance for close call recurve.
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:10 am, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1310 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:09 am

GFS and Euro comparisonImageImage

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1311 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:11 am

LarryWx wrote:0Z Euro further ENE than 12Z and similar to 18Z at hour 72. So, likely will come in further north than 12Z Euro and even small chance for close call recurve.


It’s actually SE of the 12z run, if you are hitting the previous run button on tropical tidbits you are comparing it to the 0z run from last night
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
STRiZZY
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 276
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:01 pm
Location: Largo, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1312 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:12 am

Image

72HR
0 likes   

User avatar
STRiZZY
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 276
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:01 pm
Location: Largo, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1313 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:15 am

Image

96H
1 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6319
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1314 Postby LarryWx » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:15 am

At 96, 50 miles E of the 12Z run. Likely headed to centralish FL.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1315 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:15 am

Oooh boy very sharp west turn by Euro

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
1 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1316 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:16 am

:uarrow: Head on with the Abaco Islands @ 96hrs.
0 likes   

User avatar
CourierPR
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1335
Age: 71
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1317 Postby CourierPR » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:17 am

LarryWx wrote:At 96, 50 miles E of the 12Z run. Likely headed to centralish FL.


It looks like it goes slightly north of west compared to the previous frame.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1318 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:18 am

Euro. ImageImageImageImage

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk
0 likes   

bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1319 Postby bamajammer4eva » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:18 am

96 hr Euro/GFS comparison

Image
1 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6319
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1320 Postby LarryWx » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:20 am

0Z Euro: Landfall Jupiter 114. Actually S of 12Z Euro due to more west heading near FL.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests