ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Stormi]

My little ones & I now live in the crosshairs of what all 3 of these are currently showing, and I've been working 3 jobs trying to save up for a generator. From the midwest, so a tad stressed. I apologize for being off-topic...Praying that the H erodes & this goes OTS...

[LarryWx]

It’s close to Vero, not Jupiter, I don’t use the reference loosely, but this run is very similar to Andrew’s run towards FL. The big left turn and acceleration.

At 114, the center looks south of Vero and much closer to Jupiter although Vero is getting hit with the brunt.

[TheStormExpert]

It’s close to Vero, not Jupiter, I don’t use the reference loosely, but this run is very similar to Andrew’s run towards FL. The big left turn and acceleration.

at 114, the center looks south of Vero and much closer to Jupiter although Vero is getting hit with the brunt.

It looks like it's near Stuart or Sewall's Point where Frances and Jeanne made landfall back in 2004.

[Blown Away]

It’s close to Vero, not Jupiter, I don’t use the reference loosely, but this run is very similar to Andrew’s run towards FL. The big left turn and acceleration.

At 114, the center looks south of Vero and much closer to Jupiter although Vero is getting hit with the brunt.

Man, I’m starting to get this is going to happen feeling. Sick feeling.

Yes, I’m corrected, it’s closer to Stuart/Pt St Lucie.

[bamajammer4eva]

Euro track is very similar to GEFS Mean



http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Euro hooks it around for a second hit north of Tampa on the west coast- the storm moves very slow and takes 48 hours to get from central Florida to near cedar key. Very concerning run. This would cause major flooding over already saturated rivers across central Florida.

[psyclone]

Euro hooks it around for a second hit north of Tampa on the west coast- the storm moves very slow and takes 48 hours to get from central Florida to near cedar key. Very concerning run. This would cause major flooding over already saturated rivers across central Florida.

It's a really horrendous scenario

[Blown Away]

06z TVCN turns NE well offshore, so maybe there is some hope...

[lando]

This could be the new labor day storm... EURO wants to take the SR60 across the state and absolutely destroy Tampa... staying within 50 miles for 3 days......

[Ubuntwo]

06z TVCN turns NE well offshore, so maybe there is some hope...

That's because it's averaging the hook over land, it's a consensus model.

[Blown Away]

Quite a dilemma for NHC, Euro way S of their track and their beloved TVCN consensus model is N of their track. Earning the big bucks now!

[KWT]

I see we have now moved towards the usual battle over the strength of the upper ridge. At this stage hard to say which model is right, though historically the GFS tends to be too quick at breaking down upper highs so that is very much against it. However in its favour, this system has had a history of tracking right of the forecast, and that IMO also means its not unrealistic either.

I've always wondered is the TVCN more weighted towards the GFS suite of products, because alot of the models (such as the higher res ones) will be running off of GFS based data. It seems that alot of the suite (not all though) will often broadly mirror what the GFS is suggesting.

[HDGator]

Quite a dilemma for NHC, Euro way S of their track and their beloved TVCN consensus model is N of their track. Earning the big bucks now!

Yeah, that NHC forecaster earns his stripes tonight with the 5am forecast track on the news tomorrow morning with competing major models shoving Dorian through the heart of the state or recurving OTS.
Good Luck with that one.

[Hammy]

Quite a dilemma for NHC, Euro way S of their track and their beloved TVCN consensus model is N of their track. Earning the big bucks now!

Yeah, that NHC forecaster earns his stripes tonight with the 5am forecast track on the news tomorrow morning with competing major models shoving Dorian through the heart of the state or recurving OTS.
Good Luck with that one.

Since it'll just be one or two morning advisory cycles, the most prudent option is probably to just leave the track roughly where it's at and see where the model ensembles trend by afternoon.

[Bocadude85]

Quite a dilemma for NHC, Euro way S of their track and their beloved TVCN consensus model is N of their track. Earning the big bucks now!

Yeah, that NHC forecaster earns his stripes tonight with the 5am forecast track on the news tomorrow morning with competing major models shoving Dorian through the heart of the state or recurving OTS.
Good Luck with that one.

If the Euro ensembles come in near or south of the operational run then I would think a slight southward adjustment will be shown.

[LarryWx]

Quite a dilemma for NHC, Euro way S of their track and their beloved TVCN consensus model is N of their track. Earning the big bucks now!

Yeah, that NHC forecaster earns his stripes tonight with the 5am forecast track on the news tomorrow morning with competing major models shoving Dorian through the heart of the state or recurving OTS.
Good Luck with that one.

If the Euro ensembles come in near or south of the operational run then I would think a slight southward adjustment will be shown.

They are coming in in good support for the operational with the mean very near that and a little south of the 12Z and 18Z Euro ens means.

[USTropics]

00z UKMET operational:

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF ensembles:

[USTropics]

Zoomed in view of ECMWF ensembles:

[LarryWx]

Zoomed in view of ECMWF ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/WQjn2Xr.png

Note that the strongest members are tending to be the most southern ones, which is also skewing the mean low sfc pressure south of the median track.