ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Stormi
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1341 Postby Stormi » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:35 am

My little ones & I now live in the crosshairs of what all 3 of these are currently showing, and I've been working 3 jobs trying to save up for a generator. From the midwest, so a tad stressed. I apologize for being off-topic...Praying that the H erodes & this goes OTS...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1342 Postby LarryWx » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:38 am

Blown Away wrote:It’s close to Vero, not Jupiter, I don’t use the reference loosely, but this run is very similar to Andrew’s run towards FL. The big left turn and acceleration.


At 114, the center looks south of Vero and much closer to Jupiter although Vero is getting hit with the brunt.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1343 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:39 am

LarryWx wrote:
Blown Away wrote:It’s close to Vero, not Jupiter, I don’t use the reference loosely, but this run is very similar to Andrew’s run towards FL. The big left turn and acceleration.


at 114, the center looks south of Vero and much closer to Jupiter although Vero is getting hit with the brunt.

It looks like it's near Stuart or Sewall's Point where Frances and Jeanne made landfall back in 2004.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1344 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:42 am

LarryWx wrote:
Blown Away wrote:It’s close to Vero, not Jupiter, I don’t use the reference loosely, but this run is very similar to Andrew’s run towards FL. The big left turn and acceleration.


At 114, the center looks south of Vero and much closer to Jupiter although Vero is getting hit with the brunt.


Man, I’m starting to get this is going to happen feeling. Sick feeling.

Yes, I’m corrected, it’s closer to Stuart/Pt St Lucie.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1345 Postby bamajammer4eva » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:48 am

Euro track is very similar to GEFS Mean

Image

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1346 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:48 am

Euro hooks it around for a second hit north of Tampa on the west coast- the storm moves very slow and takes 48 hours to get from central Florida to near cedar key. Very concerning run. This would cause major flooding over already saturated rivers across central Florida.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1347 Postby psyclone » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:52 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Euro hooks it around for a second hit north of Tampa on the west coast- the storm moves very slow and takes 48 hours to get from central Florida to near cedar key. Very concerning run. This would cause major flooding over already saturated rivers across central Florida.


It's a really horrendous scenario
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1348 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:56 am

06z TVCN turns NE well offshore, so maybe there is some hope...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1349 Postby lando » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:57 am

This could be the new labor day storm... EURO wants to take the SR60 across the state and absolutely destroy Tampa... staying within 50 miles for 3 days......
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1350 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:58 am

Blown Away wrote:06z TVCN turns NE well offshore, so maybe there is some hope...

That's because it's averaging the hook over land, it's a consensus model.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1351 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:10 am

Quite a dilemma for NHC, Euro way S of their track and their beloved TVCN consensus model is N of their track. Earning the big bucks now!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1352 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:10 am

I see we have now moved towards the usual battle over the strength of the upper ridge. At this stage hard to say which model is right, though historically the GFS tends to be too quick at breaking down upper highs so that is very much against it. However in its favour, this system has had a history of tracking right of the forecast, and that IMO also means its not unrealistic either.

I've always wondered is the TVCN more weighted towards the GFS suite of products, because alot of the models (such as the higher res ones) will be running off of GFS based data. It seems that alot of the suite (not all though) will often broadly mirror what the GFS is suggesting.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1353 Postby HDGator » Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:14 am

Blown Away wrote:Quite a dilemma for NHC, Euro way S of their track and their beloved TVCN consensus model is N of their track. Earning the big bucks now!

Yeah, that NHC forecaster earns his stripes tonight with the 5am forecast track on the news tomorrow morning with competing major models shoving Dorian through the heart of the state or recurving OTS.
Good Luck with that one.
8-)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1354 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:18 am

HDGator wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Quite a dilemma for NHC, Euro way S of their track and their beloved TVCN consensus model is N of their track. Earning the big bucks now!

Yeah, that NHC forecaster earns his stripes tonight with the 5am forecast track on the news tomorrow morning with competing major models shoving Dorian through the heart of the state or recurving OTS.
Good Luck with that one.
8-)


Since it'll just be one or two morning advisory cycles, the most prudent option is probably to just leave the track roughly where it's at and see where the model ensembles trend by afternoon.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1355 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:19 am

HDGator wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Quite a dilemma for NHC, Euro way S of their track and their beloved TVCN consensus model is N of their track. Earning the big bucks now!

Yeah, that NHC forecaster earns his stripes tonight with the 5am forecast track on the news tomorrow morning with competing major models shoving Dorian through the heart of the state or recurving OTS.
Good Luck with that one.
8-)


If the Euro ensembles come in near or south of the operational run then I would think a slight southward adjustment will be shown.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1356 Postby LarryWx » Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:31 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
HDGator wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Quite a dilemma for NHC, Euro way S of their track and their beloved TVCN consensus model is N of their track. Earning the big bucks now!

Yeah, that NHC forecaster earns his stripes tonight with the 5am forecast track on the news tomorrow morning with competing major models shoving Dorian through the heart of the state or recurving OTS.
Good Luck with that one.
8-)


If the Euro ensembles come in near or south of the operational run then I would think a slight southward adjustment will be shown.


They are coming in in good support for the operational with the mean very near that and a little south of the 12Z and 18Z Euro ens means.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1357 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:37 am

00z UKMET operational:
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1358 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:43 am

00z ECMWF ensembles:
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1359 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:47 am

Zoomed in view of ECMWF ensembles:
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1360 Postby LarryWx » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:07 am

USTropics wrote:Zoomed in view of ECMWF ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/WQjn2Xr.png


Note that the strongest members are tending to be the most southern ones, which is also skewing the mean low sfc pressure south of the median track.
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