ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Dylan
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1361 Postby Dylan » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:17 am

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1166624940549976067


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1362 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:52 am

NHC nudges track N slightly at 5am - Giving the GFS and other American Models some more weight?

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1363 Postby lando » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:56 am

I dont think it is giving one model more weight over the other, but someone else mentioned it best, with such extreme volatility in the models, the best bet is to stay consistent and make very little change untill the models come into a better consensus with more data later today. Its always a waiting game!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1364 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:00 am

My thinking is about 80 miles south and around 90 knots by 5 days. Ecmwf, cmc , Icon and the vast majority of Ecmwf and gfs Enemblers agree.

The gfs is breaking down the ridge too fast within my opinion.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1365 Postby robbielyn » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:06 am

lando wrote:I dont think it is giving one model more weight over the other, but someone else mentioned it best, with such extreme volatility in the models, the best bet is to stay consistent and make very little change untill the models come into a better consensus with more data later today. Its always a waiting game!

Keeps the NHC from windshieldwiping like the models do and that’s how they keep their track so accurate small important incremental changes.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1366 Postby caneman » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:32 am

psyclone wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Euro hooks it around for a second hit north of Tampa on the west coast- the storm moves very slow and takes 48 hours to get from central Florida to near cedar key. Very concerning run. This would cause major flooding over already saturated rivers across central Florida.


It's a really horrendous scenario


Track Reminds me exactly of Frances and Jeanne. I think Jeanne was the slow mover of the 2? Lost power for 7 or 8 days and I'm on the west coast. Clearwater area.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1367 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:32 am

06z Icon shifts south again, strengthening hurricane moving wsw towards extreme South Florida/Keys
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1368 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:39 am

00z ensembles for ECMWF/GFS/UKMET:

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1369 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:43 am

06z GFS...48 hours, slightly north of 00z and a tad stronger.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1370 Postby Kat5 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:46 am

The 06z NAM is showing a slightly stronger ridge through 84 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1371 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:48 am

06z GFS a little W of 00z at 72 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1372 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:49 am

GFS ridge appears a bit stronger as well through 60 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1373 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:52 am

06z SW of 00z @84 hours...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1374 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:52 am

GFS is SW of 00z at Hour 84.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1375 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:55 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:GFS is SW of 00z at Hour 84.


GFS giving in to Euro, it seems. Not good for FL
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1376 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:57 am

The key player for the gfs is the mid to upper low. It keeps a stronger and closer and ferther north upper low.. that forces dorian to stay more wnw.

Given the meager upper low now. I put less weight on the gfs operational solutions.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1377 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:57 am

Blown Away wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:GFS is SW of 00z at Hour 84.


GFS giving in to Euro, it seems. Not good for FL


Yep...us here in the Treasure Coast have seen this song and dance before. GFS seems to always break down the ridges too quickly.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1378 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:01 am

@80 mile SW shift on 06z GFS at 108 hours
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1379 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:04 am

Legacy has shifted SW even more so than new GFS. Now it looks like new GFS is going to hit the brakes and slow Dorian to a crawl over the Gulf Stream.
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1380 Postby lando » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:04 am

Blown Away wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:GFS is SW of 00z at Hour 84.


GFS giving in to Euro, it seems. Not good for FL



I wouldn’t say this at all
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