ATL: DORIAN - Models
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
NHC nudges track N slightly at 5am - Giving the GFS and other American Models some more weight?


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
I dont think it is giving one model more weight over the other, but someone else mentioned it best, with such extreme volatility in the models, the best bet is to stay consistent and make very little change untill the models come into a better consensus with more data later today. Its always a waiting game!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
My thinking is about 80 miles south and around 90 knots by 5 days. Ecmwf, cmc , Icon and the vast majority of Ecmwf and gfs Enemblers agree.
The gfs is breaking down the ridge too fast within my opinion.
The gfs is breaking down the ridge too fast within my opinion.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
lando wrote:I dont think it is giving one model more weight over the other, but someone else mentioned it best, with such extreme volatility in the models, the best bet is to stay consistent and make very little change untill the models come into a better consensus with more data later today. Its always a waiting game!
Keeps the NHC from windshieldwiping like the models do and that’s how they keep their track so accurate small important incremental changes.
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Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
psyclone wrote:Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Euro hooks it around for a second hit north of Tampa on the west coast- the storm moves very slow and takes 48 hours to get from central Florida to near cedar key. Very concerning run. This would cause major flooding over already saturated rivers across central Florida.
It's a really horrendous scenario
Track Reminds me exactly of Frances and Jeanne. I think Jeanne was the slow mover of the 2? Lost power for 7 or 8 days and I'm on the west coast. Clearwater area.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
06z Icon shifts south again, strengthening hurricane moving wsw towards extreme South Florida/Keys
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
06z GFS...48 hours, slightly north of 00z and a tad stronger.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
06z GFS a little W of 00z at 72 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
GFS ridge appears a bit stronger as well through 60 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
06z SW of 00z @84 hours...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
GFS is SW of 00z at Hour 84.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:GFS is SW of 00z at Hour 84.
GFS giving in to Euro, it seems. Not good for FL
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
The key player for the gfs is the mid to upper low. It keeps a stronger and closer and ferther north upper low.. that forces dorian to stay more wnw.
Given the meager upper low now. I put less weight on the gfs operational solutions.
Given the meager upper low now. I put less weight on the gfs operational solutions.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Blown Away wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:GFS is SW of 00z at Hour 84.
GFS giving in to Euro, it seems. Not good for FL
Yep...us here in the Treasure Coast have seen this song and dance before. GFS seems to always break down the ridges too quickly.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
@80 mile SW shift on 06z GFS at 108 hours
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Legacy has shifted SW even more so than new GFS. Now it looks like new GFS is going to hit the brakes and slow Dorian to a crawl over the Gulf Stream.
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Blown Away wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:GFS is SW of 00z at Hour 84.
GFS giving in to Euro, it seems. Not good for FL
I wouldn’t say this at all
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