ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2241 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:04 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:The current position of Dorian is actually way outside of previous 5 day cones.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ac8f014b53a123276bfff4d68494d0b89b8ccce685793b5c884600e23185814b.gif



Awesome graphic. They’ve had a very hard time getting a handle on this one . I’ve never seen so many discussions that say confidence is very low.
confidence is significantly higher today than it was yesterday on track and intensity...someone in south or central florida is getting the eyewall then on the gulf coast..good setup for the chasers as they are looking at a double major landfall and they can easily drive to both locations


At least the chasers won’t have much traffic to deal with . Are you staying home for this one ? I’m about a mile from the beach in treasure coast... Putting up shutters tomorrow before I leave.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2242 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:04 pm

Looks like the eye is still open to the west or that portion of the eyewall is weak. Still has a little more to go before it starts to bomb out.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2243 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:04 pm

Given the storm's motion, the SFMR should be stronger on the NE eyewall
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2244 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:06 pm

RI is starting it seems.. major probably by morning.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2245 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Looks like the eye is still open to the west or that portion of the eyewall is weak. Still has a little more to go before it starts to bomb out.

Could just be the radar location as well right?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2246 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:09 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Looks like the eye is still open to the west or that portion of the eyewall is weak. Still has a little more to go before it starts to bomb out.

Could just be the radar location as well right?

Shows up on MW imagery as well:
Image

But soon enough. When you see blacks and deep reds on microwave spreading it shows that the eyewall is getting considerably stronger and winds will soon catch up.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2247 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:09 pm

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2248 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:10 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Looks like the eye is still open to the west or that portion of the eyewall is weak. Still has a little more to go before it starts to bomb out.

Could just be the radar location as well right?

Shows up on MW imagery as well:
https://i.imgur.com/IvnWKo6.jpg

MW earlier had the western portion of the wall pretty solid, I guess that changed.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2249 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:13 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:Could just be the radar location as well right?

Shows up on MW imagery as well:
https://i.imgur.com/IvnWKo6.jpg

MW earlier had the western portion of the wall pretty solid, I guess that changed.

Important thing I see now is that the eyewall is solid on the southern quads. Wasn't the case yesterday.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2250 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:18 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:993.1mb extrap on pass


Pressure falling off pretty good. It was at 997 mb at the time of the 5;00 p.m. advisory package.

Impressive!!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2251 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:19 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:

Awesome graphic. They’ve had a very hard time getting a handle on this one . I’ve never seen so many discussions that say confidence is very low.
confidence is significantly higher today than it was yesterday on track and intensity...someone in south or central florida is getting the eyewall then on the gulf coast..good setup for the chasers as they are looking at a double major landfall and they can easily drive to both locations


At least the chasers won’t have much traffic to deal with . Are you staying home for this one ? I’m about a mile from the beach in treasure coast... Putting up shutters tomorrow before I leave.
I am staying here, that was also the plan with irma even with a direct hit, im a mile off the coast...the only caveat is surge, if it ever looks like we are going to take on significant water than im off to higher ground..surge is never anything to try and out-think, NEVER..surge can easily knck down buildings, drown people, etc..its easily the most dangerous part of tropical systems
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2252 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:21 pm

SW eyewall is filling in a bit on all radar tilts.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2253 Postby aperson » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:24 pm

1900hurricane wrote:SW eyewall is filling in a bit on all radar tilts.


I noticed this in tandem with radar velocity increasing as well. IR also has the eye feature tucking under the deep convection finally.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2254 Postby Blinhart » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:28 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:confidence is significantly higher today than it was yesterday on track and intensity...someone in south or central florida is getting the eyewall then on the gulf coast..good setup for the chasers as they are looking at a double major landfall and they can easily drive to both locations


At least the chasers won’t have much traffic to deal with . Are you staying home for this one ? I’m about a mile from the beach in treasure coast... Putting up shutters tomorrow before I leave.
I am staying here, that was also the plan with irma even with a direct hit, im a mile off the coast...the only caveat is surge, if it ever looks like we are going to take on significant water than im off to higher ground..surge is never anything to try and out-think, NEVER..surge can easily knck down buildings, drown people, etc..its easily the most dangerous part of tropical systems


Only a mile in, is not a good thing the surge of a Cat 3/4 could easily go in land well over 5 miles even with the land elevation there in South Florida, luckily it isn't like here in South Louisiana where a Cat3/4 could easily go in land well over 20 miles because the land doesn't rise as much as there. I am about 40 miles from the coast and only 20 feet above sea level. So storm surge is a major threat here.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2255 Postby wx98 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:28 pm

I'd say an upgrade to Cat 2 isn't too far off at this point...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2256 Postby xironman » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:30 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:confidence is significantly higher today than it was yesterday on track and intensity...someone in south or central florida is getting the eyewall then on the gulf coast..good setup for the chasers as they are looking at a double major landfall and they can easily drive to both locations


At least the chasers won’t have much traffic to deal with . Are you staying home for this one ? I’m about a mile from the beach in treasure coast... Putting up shutters tomorrow before I leave.
I am staying here, that was also the plan with irma even with a direct hit, im a mile off the coast...the only caveat is surge, if it ever looks like we are going to take on significant water than im off to higher ground..surge is never anything to try and out-think, NEVER..surge can easily knck down buildings, drown people, etc..its easily the most dangerous part of tropical systems


Coming in at a right angle to the coast you might get more surge than the usual glancing blow.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2257 Postby Blinhart » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:31 pm

wx98 wrote:I'd say an upgrade to Cat 2 isn't too far off at this point...


I totally agree, wouldn't be surprised to see this get up to Cat 4 if not 5 before landfall.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2258 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:34 pm

xironman wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
At least the chasers won’t have much traffic to deal with . Are you staying home for this one ? I’m about a mile from the beach in treasure coast... Putting up shutters tomorrow before I leave.
I am staying here, that was also the plan with irma even with a direct hit, im a mile off the coast...the only caveat is surge, if it ever looks like we are going to take on significant water than im off to higher ground..surge is never anything to try and out-think, NEVER..surge can easily knck down buildings, drown people, etc..its easily the most dangerous part of tropical systems


Coming in at a right angle to the coast you might get more surge than the usual glancing blow.

No doubt, you cant try and outguess surge...if this system is heading due west as depicted in the euro and you are on the west or NW side, it will be big trouble..pay attention to evacuation orders folks and just because cantore is standing in the middle of the storm doesnt mean you should
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2259 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:35 pm

Blinhart wrote:
wx98 wrote:I'd say an upgrade to Cat 2 isn't too far off at this point...


I totally agree, wouldn't be surprised to see this get up to Cat 4 if not 5 before landfall.


If it strengthens too fast, it will start getting into ERC's and likely getting larger sucking in dry air, but that would expand the area that gets hit.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2260 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:36 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Looks like the eye is still open to the west or that portion of the eyewall is weak. Still has a little more to go before it starts to bomb out.


Looks like the southwest portion of the eyewall is open. It should not be much.longer when the eyewall will be closed fully. It seems we are in the midst of a RI right now. Pressure down nearly 5 mb in just since 5:p.m.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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