ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

The current position of Dorian is actually way outside of previous 5 day cones.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ac8f014b53a123276bfff4d68494d0b89b8ccce685793b5c884600e23185814b.gif

Awesome graphic. They’ve had a very hard time getting a handle on this one . I’ve never seen so many discussions that say confidence is very low.

confidence is significantly higher today than it was yesterday on track and intensity...someone in south or central florida is getting the eyewall then on the gulf coast..good setup for the chasers as they are looking at a double major landfall and they can easily drive to both locations

At least the chasers won’t have much traffic to deal with . Are you staying home for this one ? I’m about a mile from the beach in treasure coast... Putting up shutters tomorrow before I leave.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the eye is still open to the west or that portion of the eyewall is weak. Still has a little more to go before it starts to bomb out.

[Highteeld]

Given the storm's motion, the SFMR should be stronger on the NE eyewall

[Aric Dunn]

RI is starting it seems.. major probably by morning.

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like the eye is still open to the west or that portion of the eyewall is weak. Still has a little more to go before it starts to bomb out.

Could just be the radar location as well right?

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the eye is still open to the west or that portion of the eyewall is weak. Still has a little more to go before it starts to bomb out.

Could just be the radar location as well right?

Shows up on MW imagery as well:


But soon enough. When you see blacks and deep reds on microwave spreading it shows that the eyewall is getting considerably stronger and winds will soon catch up.

[Highteeld]

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like the eye is still open to the west or that portion of the eyewall is weak. Still has a little more to go before it starts to bomb out.

Could just be the radar location as well right?

Shows up on MW imagery as well:
https://i.imgur.com/IvnWKo6.jpg

MW earlier had the western portion of the wall pretty solid, I guess that changed.

[Kingarabian]

Could just be the radar location as well right?

Shows up on MW imagery as well:
https://i.imgur.com/IvnWKo6.jpg

MW earlier had the western portion of the wall pretty solid, I guess that changed.

Important thing I see now is that the eyewall is solid on the southern quads. Wasn't the case yesterday.

[northjaxpro]

993.1mb extrap on pass

Pressure falling off pretty good. It was at 997 mb at the time of the 5;00 p.m. advisory package.

Impressive!!

[jlauderdal]

Awesome graphic. They’ve had a very hard time getting a handle on this one . I’ve never seen so many discussions that say confidence is very low.

confidence is significantly higher today than it was yesterday on track and intensity...someone in south or central florida is getting the eyewall then on the gulf coast..good setup for the chasers as they are looking at a double major landfall and they can easily drive to both locations

At least the chasers won’t have much traffic to deal with . Are you staying home for this one ? I’m about a mile from the beach in treasure coast... Putting up shutters tomorrow before I leave.

I am staying here, that was also the plan with irma even with a direct hit, im a mile off the coast...the only caveat is surge, if it ever looks like we are going to take on significant water than im off to higher ground..surge is never anything to try and out-think, NEVER..surge can easily knck down buildings, drown people, etc..its easily the most dangerous part of tropical systems

[1900hurricane]

SW eyewall is filling in a bit on all radar tilts.

[aperson]

SW eyewall is filling in a bit on all radar tilts.

I noticed this in tandem with radar velocity increasing as well. IR also has the eye feature tucking under the deep convection finally.

[Blinhart]

confidence is significantly higher today than it was yesterday on track and intensity...someone in south or central florida is getting the eyewall then on the gulf coast..good setup for the chasers as they are looking at a double major landfall and they can easily drive to both locations

At least the chasers won’t have much traffic to deal with . Are you staying home for this one ? I’m about a mile from the beach in treasure coast... Putting up shutters tomorrow before I leave.

I am staying here, that was also the plan with irma even with a direct hit, im a mile off the coast...the only caveat is surge, if it ever looks like we are going to take on significant water than im off to higher ground..surge is never anything to try and out-think, NEVER..surge can easily knck down buildings, drown people, etc..its easily the most dangerous part of tropical systems

Only a mile in, is not a good thing the surge of a Cat 3/4 could easily go in land well over 5 miles even with the land elevation there in South Florida, luckily it isn't like here in South Louisiana where a Cat3/4 could easily go in land well over 20 miles because the land doesn't rise as much as there. I am about 40 miles from the coast and only 20 feet above sea level. So storm surge is a major threat here.

[wx98]

I'd say an upgrade to Cat 2 isn't too far off at this point...

[xironman]

confidence is significantly higher today than it was yesterday on track and intensity...someone in south or central florida is getting the eyewall then on the gulf coast..good setup for the chasers as they are looking at a double major landfall and they can easily drive to both locations

At least the chasers won’t have much traffic to deal with . Are you staying home for this one ? I’m about a mile from the beach in treasure coast... Putting up shutters tomorrow before I leave.

I am staying here, that was also the plan with irma even with a direct hit, im a mile off the coast...the only caveat is surge, if it ever looks like we are going to take on significant water than im off to higher ground..surge is never anything to try and out-think, NEVER..surge can easily knck down buildings, drown people, etc..its easily the most dangerous part of tropical systems

Coming in at a right angle to the coast you might get more surge than the usual glancing blow.

[Blinhart]

I'd say an upgrade to Cat 2 isn't too far off at this point...

I totally agree, wouldn't be surprised to see this get up to Cat 4 if not 5 before landfall.

[jlauderdal]

At least the chasers won’t have much traffic to deal with . Are you staying home for this one ? I’m about a mile from the beach in treasure coast... Putting up shutters tomorrow before I leave.

I am staying here, that was also the plan with irma even with a direct hit, im a mile off the coast...the only caveat is surge, if it ever looks like we are going to take on significant water than im off to higher ground..surge is never anything to try and out-think, NEVER..surge can easily knck down buildings, drown people, etc..its easily the most dangerous part of tropical systems

Coming in at a right angle to the coast you might get more surge than the usual glancing blow.

No doubt, you cant try and outguess surge...if this system is heading due west as depicted in the euro and you are on the west or NW side, it will be big trouble..pay attention to evacuation orders folks and just because cantore is standing in the middle of the storm doesnt mean you should

[CrazyC83]

I'd say an upgrade to Cat 2 isn't too far off at this point...

I totally agree, wouldn't be surprised to see this get up to Cat 4 if not 5 before landfall.

If it strengthens too fast, it will start getting into ERC's and likely getting larger sucking in dry air, but that would expand the area that gets hit.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like the eye is still open to the west or that portion of the eyewall is weak. Still has a little more to go before it starts to bomb out.

Looks like the southwest portion of the eyewall is open. It should not be much.longer when the eyewall will be closed fully. It seems we are in the midst of a RI right now. Pressure down nearly 5 mb in just since 5:p.m.