ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Cpv17]

https://i.imgur.com/xCAEFc5.png

I can’t see this going that far north. SFL is much more likely and even the Keys are more likely than CFL or NFL. Storms just don’t ever hit that part of Florida from the east like that. It’s not completely unlikely, but I doubt that’ll happen.

How can CFL be more unlikely than the Keys when it is smack in the middle of the cone and some of the Keys aren't even in it? Just because it is rare doesn't mean anything to current condition. The cone could shift and I am not saying one will definitely happen but that is a bold statement to make.

Because of past storms. When has CFL ever taken a direct hit like that from the east? Look how many times it has happened to SFL compared to CFL. I know every situation is different, but the ridging will be strong to its north. It’s not going to plow into a ridge. Stronger storms feel the ridge, buck it, then hook sharply to the west or wsw around it.

[WeatherEmperor]

Any more info on the 18z Euro??


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[Blown Away]

18z HWRF, my take away is at landfall it's moving due W into the Peninsula, no sign of turning... From 108 to 126 West, agreeing with the GOM bound models just at a higher latitude...

[jfk08c]

I can’t see this going that far north. SFL is much more likely and even the Keys are more likely than CFL or NFL. Storms just don’t ever hit that part of Florida from the east like that. It’s not completely unlikely, but I doubt that’ll happen.

How can CFL be more unlikely than the Keys when it is smack in the middle of the cone and some of the Keys aren't even in it? Just because it is rare doesn't mean anything to current condition. The cone could shift and I am not saying one will definitely happen but that is a bold statement to make.

Because of past storms. When has CFL ever taken a direct hit like that from the east? Look how many times it has happened to SFL compared to CFL. I know every situation is different, but the ridging will be strong to its north. It’s not going to plow into a ridge. Stronger storms feel the ridge, buck it, then hook sharply to the west or wsw around it.

But which ridge is going to be accurate? Euro has the ridge building further south and GFS more north. I don't think anyone is disputing that it'll plow into the ridge, they're disputing how far down the ridge will go in latitude. Positioning is everything

[northjaxpro]

So NAVGEM joins the GFS on the more North reasoning with the forecast track. That is a bit interesting

Huge jump north from mid state to Jacksonville.
Dorian is gaining a lot of latitude early, you can see high cirrus expanding north in the water vapor imagery. I wouldn't be surprised if Dorian continues on a NW heading almost till Andrews latitude before the ridge gets a chance to build back in. Track should be fairly predictable by then.

Yeah, good reasoning Nimbus. Forian is gaining latitude rather quickly on its NW heading curremtly.

[SFLcane]

18z Euro coming into SFL...

[AxaltaRacing24]

So NAVGEM joins the GFS on the more North reasoning with the forecast track. That is a bit interesting

Huge jump north from mid state to Jacksonville.
Dorian is gaining a lot of latitude early, you can see high cirrus expanding north in the water vapor imagery. I wouldn't be surprised if Dorian continues on a NW heading almost till Andrews latitude before the ridge gets a chance to build back in. Track should be fairly predictable by then.

Yeah, good reasoning Nimbus. Forian is gaoning latotude rather quickly on its NW heading curremtly.

Euro ensembles showed that the more east and strong the storm was, the more south it would end up. Just saying

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Euro coming into SFL...

Can you provide an approximate latitude longitude of this?


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[Cpv17]

How can CFL be more unlikely than the Keys when it is smack in the middle of the cone and some of the Keys aren't even in it? Just because it is rare doesn't mean anything to current condition. The cone could shift and I am not saying one will definitely happen but that is a bold statement to make.

Because of past storms. When has CFL ever taken a direct hit like that from the east? Look how many times it has happened to SFL compared to CFL. I know every situation is different, but the ridging will be strong to its north. It’s not going to plow into a ridge. Stronger storms feel the ridge, buck it, then hook sharply to the west or wsw around it.

But which ridge is going to be accurate? Euro has the ridge building further south and GFS more north. I don't think anyone is disputing that it'll plow into the ridge, they're disputing how far down the ridge will go in latitude. Positioning is everything

I’m just basing this off past storms for the most part. If I’m wrong then I’ll eat it. My money is on Boca Raton for a direct hit.

[SFLcane]

18z Euro coming into SFL...

Can you provide an approximate latitude longitude of this?


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See Maue Twitter

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro coming into SFL...

pretty much identical to the last 4 runs..

[tolakram]

Here's the tweet. Remember to use the copy link, not block copy

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166866969708105729




It looks like this: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166866969708105729

if there's a ? at the end, like ?t=34 or some other text delete the ? and all text after to get the tweet to show up.

[Camerooski]

18z Euro coming into SFL...

Can you post the coordinates at least? You can't leave us with this suspense....

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z Euro coming into SFL...

pretty much identical to the last 4 runs..

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166866969708105729?s=19

[Carolinagirl18]

https://i.imgur.com/xCAEFc5.png

I can’t see this going that far north. SFL is much more likely and even the Keys are more likely than CFL or NFL. Storms just don’t ever hit that part of Florida from the east like that. It’s not completely unlikely, but I doubt that’ll happen.

Storms dont hit NC like Florence did last year either but it happened. I'm no expert but prepare for it either way.

[tolakram]

I'll repeat:

Tweets look like this: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166866969708105729

if there's a ? at the end, like ?t=34 or some other text delete the ? and all text after to get the tweet to show up.

[beachman80]

https://i.imgur.com/xCAEFc5.png

I can’t see this going that far north. SFL is much more likely and even the Keys are more likely than CFL or NFL. Storms just don’t ever hit that part of Florida from the east like that. It’s not completely unlikely, but I doubt that’ll happen.

Storms dont hit NC like Florence did last year either but it happened. I'm no expert but prepare for it either way.

True, but I think HP is going to block it from moving that far north. When HP settles in where it's supposed, it can really trap a system. I don't see this thing gaining much latitude once it's under its influence. IN fact, it will likely lose latitude and head a little south. While the ICON is not a reliable model, it actually makes the most sense. I just get nervous with it slowing down and potentially stalling out somewhere.

[JPmia]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue

It ends just at the east tip of Great Abaco (26.45N approximately) heading generally west.. continued west heading would take it to WPB to Boca Raton areas.

[Ivanhater]

How far out does the 18z Euro go?

[Cpv17]

https://i.imgur.com/xCAEFc5.png

I can’t see this going that far north. SFL is much more likely and even the Keys are more likely than CFL or NFL. Storms just don’t ever hit that part of Florida from the east like that. It’s not completely unlikely, but I doubt that’ll happen.

Storms dont hit NC like Florence did last year either but it happened. I'm no expert but prepare for it either way.

I’ve seen many storms hit NC though. It just seems like the area all the way from CFL all the way towards the state line between South and North Carolina don’t often get hit by storms. North or south of there it’s game on.