ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2841 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:41 pm

ronjon wrote:its a week out folks - definitely won't verify. Throws a wrench in the NHC track guidance.


they stop at 5 days.. while is still in the bahamas..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2842 Postby Dave C » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:42 pm

It's amazing to think this storm will take nearly 6 days to reach Florida. That period of the WSW motion is just agonizingly slow. Of course the affects will reach earlier.
Last edited by Dave C on Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2843 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:43 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2844 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:43 pm

Looks like a slower moving storm means a turn further east.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2845 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:43 pm

Crawling into GA...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2846 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:44 pm

big thing to take from this is even with that trough its not enough to take it out. so its coming in somewhere likely cape canaveral south..

not only that.. looks like tis about to turn and go back offshore lol
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2847 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:44 pm

tolakram wrote:Good grief. On the pay site ridge was mostly gone at 90 hours so it looks like almost no steering. This is moving SLOW.

That could be very bad for the Bahamas (not to mention the Florida coast), they would really get hammered if it stalls off the coast and the track is to the south.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2848 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:44 pm

Goes more W into extreme NE FL.... no recurve on this one
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2849 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:45 pm

chris_fit wrote:Goes more W into extreme NE FL.... no recurve on this one


yeah it will recurve.. east then se lol

just not NE..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2850 Postby 27n80w » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:46 pm

If you have a ridge that is stout enough to push a major sw when the typically want to move pole ward why would would it move so slowly?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2851 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:46 pm

Also note the Euro shows Dorian becoming larger after 96 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2852 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:46 pm

Yea, no escape, look at the tilt on the ridge (if I am seeing that correctly).

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2853 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:46 pm

This would make Frances look like a speed demon!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2854 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:47 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ronjon wrote:its a week out folks - definitely won't verify. Throws a wrench in the NHC track guidance.


they stop at 5 days.. while is still in the bahamas..


Well it will be hard to stick their 5 day Dorian location in the middle of the peninsula now with this run...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2855 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:47 pm

HWRF sends Dorian back out into the NE GOM moving towards the Apalachicola area.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2856 Postby StPeteMike » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:50 pm

TheProfessor wrote:HWRF sends Dorian back out into the NE GOM moving towards the Apalachicola area.

Where does it exit?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2857 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:50 pm

It hasn't been that long ago the models were showing landfall on Sunday night into Monday....now we are up to Wednesday. What a nightmare for Florida officials .
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2858 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:51 pm

Surprised by this run frankly. All previous runs today (GFS, Uk, ICON) had increased their speed, suggesting that maybe the 6Z runs were outliers with the slowing/stalling. Fully expected the Euro to resume the approximate speed of yesterday's runs.

Now we move on to 18Z and see if the others slow down or stall too. <<sigh>>
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2859 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:52 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2860 Postby jfk08c » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:52 pm

You have to wonder what data was picked up by the EURO on that run that caused it to be almost 24 hours or more slower than every other major model
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