ronjon wrote:its a week out folks - definitely won't verify. Throws a wrench in the NHC track guidance.
they stop at 5 days.. while is still in the bahamas..
ATL: DORIAN - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
they stop at 5 days.. while is still in the bahamas..
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
Dave C
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 868
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:36 pm
- Location: Middleboro, Mass.(midway between Cape Cod and Boston)
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
It's amazing to think this storm will take nearly 6 days to reach Florida. That period of the WSW motion is just agonizingly slow. Of course the affects will reach earlier.
Last edited by Dave C on Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
HurricaneFrances04
- Category 2
- Posts: 597
- Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:09 am
- Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida
-
supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
-
Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
big thing to take from this is even with that trough its not enough to take it out. so its coming in somewhere likely cape canaveral south..
not only that.. looks like tis about to turn and go back offshore lol
not only that.. looks like tis about to turn and go back offshore lol
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
Hurrilurker
- Category 2
- Posts: 727
- Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:32 pm
- Location: San Francisco, CA
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
tolakram wrote:Good grief. On the pay site ridge was mostly gone at 90 hours so it looks like almost no steering. This is moving SLOW.
That could be very bad for the Bahamas (not to mention the Florida coast), they would really get hammered if it stalls off the coast and the track is to the south.
0 likes
-
Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
chris_fit wrote:Goes more W into extreme NE FL.... no recurve on this one
yeah it will recurve.. east then se lol
just not NE..
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
If you have a ridge that is stout enough to push a major sw when the typically want to move pole ward why would would it move so slowly?
0 likes
-
HurricaneFrances04
- Category 2
- Posts: 597
- Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:09 am
- Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida
-
tolakram
- Admin
- Posts: 20023
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Yea, no escape, look at the tilt on the ridge (if I am seeing that correctly).
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:ronjon wrote:its a week out folks - definitely won't verify. Throws a wrench in the NHC track guidance.
they stop at 5 days.. while is still in the bahamas..
Well it will be hard to stick their 5 day Dorian location in the middle of the peninsula now with this run...
1 likes
-
TheProfessor
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3506
- Age: 28
- Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
- Location: Wichita, Kansas
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
HWRF sends Dorian back out into the NE GOM moving towards the Apalachicola area.
4 likes
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
-
StPeteMike
- Category 2
- Posts: 642
- Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:26 pm
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
TheProfessor wrote:HWRF sends Dorian back out into the NE GOM moving towards the Apalachicola area.
Where does it exit?
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
SunnyThoughts
- Category 5
- Posts: 2263
- Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
- Location: Pensacola, Florida
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
It hasn't been that long ago the models were showing landfall on Sunday night into Monday....now we are up to Wednesday. What a nightmare for Florida officials .
0 likes
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Surprised by this run frankly. All previous runs today (GFS, Uk, ICON) had increased their speed, suggesting that maybe the 6Z runs were outliers with the slowing/stalling. Fully expected the Euro to resume the approximate speed of yesterday's runs.
Now we move on to 18Z and see if the others slow down or stall too. <<sigh>>
Now we move on to 18Z and see if the others slow down or stall too. <<sigh>>
1 likes
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
You have to wonder what data was picked up by the EURO on that run that caused it to be almost 24 hours or more slower than every other major model
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests