ATL: DORIAN - Models

[gatorcane]

18Z ICON. Looks like Broward/Palm Beach line

[BobHarlem]

https://i.imgur.com/ebZS97c.png

Interesting low west of Dorian here. Maybe a hint at what's driving some of the models to be faster.

[NDG]

18Z ICON slightly SW of 12Z at 75 hours near Grand Bahama

What is interesting that it is faster than at least 4 previous runs.
it has been king so far with Dorian at 72 hrs forecast.

[AutoPenalti]

ICON has been very consistent with track so far. Kinda surprised.

[caneseddy]

https://i.imgur.com/ebZS97c.png

Looks like Broward County again.

[sma10]

18Z ICON. Looks like Broward/Palm Beach line

https://i.postimg.cc/52c0nYFR/icon-mslp-pcpn-frzn-seus-30.png

Yes. But on a slight WSW heading so bad news for Broward and Dade. Not that such tiny details matter this far out.

[gatorcane]

ICON has been consistent run after run after run. Hope it ends up consistently wrong. That would be devastating and to a highly populated area. I think you have to go back to 1947 when this happened last?

[NDG]

ICON has been very consistent with track so far. Kinda surprised.

ICON did fairly well with Barry.

[tolakram]

Don't look now but the Ukie is doing well all the way to 120 hours.





source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/

[beachman80]

Well for someone who lives in Tampa Bay, I hope the ICON track is wrong. That thing is drifting NW right off the west coast.

[Aric Dunn]

Also dont forget ridge pumping which models are terrible at forecasting. The angle Dorian will be interacting with the ridge is a good setup for ridge pumping.

[gatorcane]

Also dont forget ridge pumping which models are terrible at forecasting. The angle Dorian will be interacting with the ridge is a good setup for ridge pumping.

Agreed last not forget Irma. 72 hours out and the GFS and Euro seemed locked in on SE Florida. Then run after run we watched the models shift west even just 24 to 36 hours out. I almost would feel better if the track was over me now. A lot of shifting can happen even in the short-range.

[Storm Battered]

I do agree with the user (I'm sorry, I forgot who) who pointed out that hurricanes very rarely take that sharp of a turn so quickly. ECMWF shows Dorian almost doing a complete 180 from drifting WSW to going NNW in ~12 hours. That's breakneck for a hurricane. Usually the track looks up being more rounded and smooth looking.

Maybe it was Blinhart?

https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman/status/1167169829805133826

If I would have to answer that question, I would say the likelihood is very low of a sharp turn like that happening. I think it would take more like 36 hours not 18 hours.

Agreed. Models rarely pick up on or show jogs. Depicting a sharp turn in such a short time is odd.

[FLpanhandle91]

18z GFS about the same as 12z through 24 hours. Maybe just a tiny bit stronger ridging.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS rolling. Ridge already looks slightly stronger out through 24 hours.

[jasons2k]

18Z ICON. Looks like Broward/Palm Beach line

Umm - what is that in the Gulf and where did it come from? Wondering if that could have an influence on Dorian as well by creating a weakness to its west.

[FLpanhandle91]

Dorian slightly stronger through 42 hours and about 40 miles northeast.

[gatorcane]

At 48 hours GFS has a more WSW to ENE oriented ridge. That is what the Euro has been insisting.

[storm4u]

18z GFS is wayyyyyyyyy slower

[Steve]

18Z ICON. Looks like Broward/Palm Beach line

https://i.postimg.cc/52c0nYFR/icon-mslp-pcpn-frzn-seus-30.png

Umm - what is that in the Gulf and where did it come from? Wondering if that could have an influence on Dorian as well by creating a weakness to its west.

It’s been in various models for days. It’s the forerunning upper low that seems to get a surface signature down the road. This has been on some of the runs since Sunday or Monday.

Here’s the Icon @ 500mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 918&fh=120