Kingarabian wrote:FWIW, GEPS (CMC ensembles) mean is also OTS:
https://i.imgur.com/DRTt5LS.png
How can they have it approaching the coast at 997mb? That just seems incredibly unlikely, doesn't it?
ATL: DORIAN - Models
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Hurrilurker
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
How can they have it approaching the coast at 997mb? That just seems incredibly unlikely, doesn't it?
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Hurrilurker wrote:Kingarabian wrote:FWIW, GEPS (CMC ensembles) mean is also OTS:
https://i.imgur.com/DRTt5LS.png
How can they have it approaching the coast at 997mb? That just seems incredibly unlikely, doesn't it?
CMC is a lower resolution model.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
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beachman80
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Just from following these things for years and seeing how strong storms tend to overreact to HP on top of it and move more WSW than expected, I think the HMON and Euro have this right targeting extreme SE Fl. After that I don’t know. It’s a toss up. I have a hunch this thing is going to float around somewhere for a while and God bless the souls that get stuck in that scenario.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
I cant find it on the access I have.
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DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Pretty sure we will see another 50 mile track shift south from the NHC into Martin County based on consensus and GFS shift. Euro , Ukie,GFS CMC all meet in the same place. Euro just takes detour to get there.
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DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
It's not snowing yet. NAM don't work till then. Lolgatorcane wrote:00Z NAM put through 42 hours is more south, turns Dorian sooner.
https://i.postimg.cc/mrtxzsFj/nam-mslp-pcpn-watl-14.png
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Evening all,
Between preping down south in Key Largo and getting the things I need here in Miami im exhausted. So clean cut and dry where do we stand with this storm.
Between preping down south in Key Largo and getting the things I need here in Miami im exhausted. So clean cut and dry where do we stand with this storm.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Evening all,
Between preping down south in Key Largo and getting the things I need here in Miami im exhausted. So clean cut and dry where do we stand with this storm.
No one knows is pretty much the consensus. It keeps on flip flopping, just all we know is it is getting stronger.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
gatorcane wrote:00Z NAM put through 42 hours is more south, turns Dorian sooner.
https://i.postimg.cc/mrtxzsFj/nam-mslp-pcpn-watl-14.png
Breaking the ridge down sooner also, steering collapse at 48 hrs
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Some input from a few of the PRO Mets would be so helpful. Do I take the boat off the Davits in Key Largo put it on the trailer and tie it down?
What type of weather can be expected there, I know no one knows for sure but need to finish there and work on Miami home
What type of weather can be expected there, I know no one knows for sure but need to finish there and work on Miami home
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
actually, slightly more ridging and tilled ne sw on the 00z NAM
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:actually, slightly more ridging and tilled ne sw on the 00z NAM
Edit I was looking at the wrong run, disregard
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:actually, slightly more ridging and tilled ne sw on the 00z NAM
Indeed:
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Can anybody provide an approximate plot location for where the 18z Ukmet ends the run??
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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TheProfessor
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
0z NAM seems a bit slower than its 18z run.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
TheProfessor wrote:0z NAM seems a bit slower than its 18z run.
Yes it does, crawling due west:
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