ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dave C]

Atlantic canes have some weird shape... I remember Matthew in 2016 being heart-shaped at its peak.

There's an upper low on the east and west sides of the hurricane. We're seeing dual outflow channels forming.

[CronkPSU]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167440533083631616

Not necessarily true. EWRC's can cause some short-term weakening on approach.

he didn't say cat 5 at landfall...he just said it could reach cat 5

[supercane4867]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167440533083631616

The compact size of Dorian will certainly aid in the intensification process. Now that the eye is clearing, it's off to the races until an eye wall replacement cycle occurs. Upwelling is the only possible obstacle for Dorian.

Upwelling is not really a problem if it decides to sit over the Gulf Stream

[norva13x]

Almost in an identical position as the Labor Day Hurricane. Crazy how Dorian’s projected track isn’t that far different to that one.

Don't even, the comparison alone is enough to make ones heart drop.

[HurricaneEnzo]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167440533083631616

Not necessarily true. EWRC's can cause some short-term weakening on approach.

He didnt' say it would landfall at a 5 just there was nothing stopping it from reaching that strength at some point.

[toad strangler]

So, that N turn the NHC has happening not too far after landfall..... here's to hoping that happens earlier!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dorian's squashed look reminds me a lot of Joaquin, to be honest.

[tolakram]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 301449
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft have been sending data from Dorian
this morning. The flight-level winds from both planes have peaks
at 100 kt and the SFMR measured 94 kt. The minimum central pressure
has been oscillating between 972 and 976 mb. On this basis, the
initial intensity has been set to 95 kt. The upper-low currently
over Cuba which has been inducing some shear over Dorian is moving
away from the hurricane, and the upper-level flow pattern is
evolving toward a more favorable environment. In fact, the eye is
becoming apparent on visible images as we speak and in radar data
from the NOAA P3 aircraft. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for
additional intensification, and Dorian is expected to become an
extremely dangerous major hurricane soon with additional
strengthening likely as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and
the Florida peninsula.

Fixes from both reconnaissance planes indicate that Dorian is moving
toward the northwest of 310 degrees at 9 kt. As the upper-low over
Cuba moves westward and a strong subtropical ridge builds over the
western Atlantic as indicated by global models, the hurricane should
be forced to turn west-northwestward and westward on a track toward
the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula. This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall. The official forecast has been very
consistent so far, and this one is very similar to the previous
NHC forecast. It follows the multi-model and corrected consensus,
and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
hurricane watch is in effect. Residents should execute their
hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm
surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane
plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is
likely in portions of Florida into next week, including the
possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the
Florida peninsula.

4. Heavy rains are expected over portions of the Bahamas, Florida,
and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend into
the middle of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 24.5N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 25.3N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 27.0N 80.4W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/1200Z 29.0N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks like he is starting to lose the squashed look and get more symmetrical. Perhaps the low to his west has finally moved away enough to not cause any detrimental shear. Now he is in the 'goldilocks zone' where the low is just going to help him vent and strengthen.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 1252.84375

[newtotex]

Hopefully this thing doesn’t hit as a Cat. 4 and FL will get lucky. But, the current NHC track hooking north and weakening over land is the ideal outcome. If Dorian comes in further south and goes over the Everglades or Okeechobee then there is not a whole lot to weaken it if it were to go into the Gulf

[norva13x]

Hopefully this thing doesn’t hit as a Cat. 4 and FL will get lucky. But, the current NHC track hooking north and weakening over land is the ideal outcome. If Dorian comes in further south and goes over the Everglades or Okerchobee then there is not a whole lot to weaken it if it were to go into the Gulf

Not ideal for those of us in the track.

[northjaxpro]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167440533083631616

THIS

I agree with Ryan Maue. I do not see anything to stop this from attaining Cat 5 status during the Labor Day Holiday weekend at some point.

Dorian is definitely going down in the history books for certain when it is all said and done..

Unfortunately, this nightmare is only beginning with Dorian Long way from being over .............

[MississippiWx]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167440533083631616

The compact size of Dorian will certainly aid in the intensification process. Now that the eye is clearing, it's off to the races until an eye wall replacement cycle occurs. Upwelling is the only possible obstacle for Dorian.

Upwelling is not really a problem if it decides to sit over the Gulf Stream

You are right. It depends on where/when/if a crawling motion occurs. It might not slow down until it's too late for Florida. Then, the slow down becomes catastrophic for wind and flooding.

[newtotex]

Hopefully this thing doesn’t hit as a Cat. 4 and FL will get lucky. But, the current NHC track hooking north and weakening over land is the ideal outcome. If Dorian comes in further south and goes over the Everglades or Okerchobee then there is not a whole lot to weaken it if it were to go into the Gulf

Not ideal for those of us in the track.

Yea, Dorian not hitting land would be the best option obviously. Just hypothetical

[FLpanhandle91]

Hopefully this thing doesn’t hit as a Cat. 4 and FL will get lucky. But, the current NHC track hooking north and weakening over land is the ideal outcome. If Dorian comes in further south and goes over the Everglades or Okerchobee then there is not a whole lot to weaken it if it were to go into the Gulf

The hook north amd subsequent slow movement is not best cast scenario. This is going to expose a large swath densely populated areas of the peninsula to prolonged hurricane force winds and torrential rain.

[StPeteMike]

The NWS discussion pretty much has Dorian going almost due north or a NNW track after landfall. I don’t see what they’re seeing that would cause such a sharp right turn.

[norva13x]

The only reason I can't see a cat 5 is the improbability of having two within a year of each other hitting Florida, hard to wrap the mind around that. Not that Dorian would care of course.

[newtotex]

Hopefully this thing doesn’t hit as a Cat. 4 and FL will get lucky. But, the current NHC track hooking north and weakening over land is the ideal outcome. If Dorian comes in further south and goes over the Everglades or Okerchobee then there is not a whole lot to weaken it if it were to go into the Gulf

The hook north amd subsequent slow movement is not best cast scenario. This is going to expose a large swath densely populated areas of the peninsula to prolonged hurricane force winds and torrential rain.

True. It not hitting at all would be best since there really is no “good” scenario when a hurricane hits. Probably not the best choice of words

[chris_fit]

Just a reminder of how quickly things can (and likely will) change - Here is Irma's forecast 2.5 days from Landfall.... We all know what happened. We are still over 3 days out here, at least, with Dorian.

[Patrick99]

Unless my eyes deceive me last few frames, I think we may be at the point where the storm is gaining slightly more longitude than it is latitude.