ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Dave C
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 868
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:36 pm
Location: Middleboro, Mass.(midway between Cape Cod and Boston)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3341 Postby Dave C » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:52 am

dexterlabio wrote:Atlantic canes have some weird shape... I remember Matthew in 2016 being heart-shaped at its peak. :lol:

There's an upper low on the east and west sides of the hurricane. We're seeing dual outflow channels forming.
2 likes   

User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3342 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:52 am

AutoPenalti wrote:

Not necessarily true. EWRC's can cause some short-term weakening on approach.


he didn't say cat 5 at landfall...he just said it could reach cat 5
5 likes   
Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3343 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:52 am

MississippiWx wrote:


The compact size of Dorian will certainly aid in the intensification process. Now that the eye is clearing, it's off to the races until an eye wall replacement cycle occurs. Upwelling is the only possible obstacle for Dorian.

Upwelling is not really a problem if it decides to sit over the Gulf Stream
4 likes   

norva13x
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 102
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:41 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3344 Postby norva13x » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:52 am

StPeteMike wrote:Almost in an identical position as the Labor Day Hurricane. Crazy how Dorian’s projected track isn’t that far different to that one.


Don't even, the comparison alone is enough to make ones heart drop.
1 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 739
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3345 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:53 am

AutoPenalti wrote:

Not necessarily true. EWRC's can cause some short-term weakening on approach.


He didnt' say it would landfall at a 5 just there was nothing stopping it from reaching that strength at some point.
3 likes   
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3346 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:55 am

So, that N turn the NHC has happening not too far after landfall..... here's to hoping that happens earlier!
1 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3355
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3347 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:55 am

Dorian's squashed look reminds me a lot of Joaquin, to be honest.
4 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3348 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:57 am

000
WTNT45 KNHC 301449
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft have been sending data from Dorian
this morning. The flight-level winds from both planes have peaks
at 100 kt and the SFMR measured 94 kt. The minimum central pressure
has been oscillating between 972 and 976 mb. On this basis, the
initial intensity has been set to 95 kt. The upper-low currently
over Cuba which has been inducing some shear over Dorian is moving
away from the hurricane, and the upper-level flow pattern is
evolving toward a more favorable environment. In fact, the eye is
becoming apparent on visible images as we speak and in radar data
from the NOAA P3 aircraft. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for
additional intensification, and Dorian is expected to become an
extremely dangerous major hurricane soon with additional
strengthening likely as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and
the Florida peninsula.

Fixes from both reconnaissance planes indicate that Dorian is moving
toward the northwest of 310 degrees at 9 kt. As the upper-low over
Cuba moves westward and a strong subtropical ridge builds over the
western Atlantic as indicated by global models, the hurricane should
be forced to turn west-northwestward and westward on a track toward
the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula. This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall. The official forecast has been very
consistent so far, and this one is very similar to the previous
NHC forecast. It follows the multi-model and corrected consensus,
and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
hurricane watch is in effect. Residents should execute their
hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm
surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane
plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is
likely in portions of Florida into next week, including the
possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the
Florida peninsula.

4. Heavy rains are expected over portions of the Bahamas, Florida,
and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend into
the middle of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 24.5N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 25.3N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 27.0N 80.4W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/1200Z 29.0N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila
4 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 739
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3349 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:58 am

Looks like he is starting to lose the squashed look and get more symmetrical. Perhaps the low to his west has finally moved away enough to not cause any detrimental shear. Now he is in the 'goldilocks zone' where the low is just going to help him vent and strengthen.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 1252.84375
Last edited by HurricaneEnzo on Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!

newtotex
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 231
Age: 37
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:19 pm
Location: Denton, Tx

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3350 Postby newtotex » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:59 am

Hopefully this thing doesn’t hit as a Cat. 4 and FL will get lucky. But, the current NHC track hooking north and weakening over land is the ideal outcome. If Dorian comes in further south and goes over the Everglades or Okeechobee then there is not a whole lot to weaken it if it were to go into the Gulf
Last edited by newtotex on Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

norva13x
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 102
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:41 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3351 Postby norva13x » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:00 am

newtotex wrote:Hopefully this thing doesn’t hit as a Cat. 4 and FL will get lucky. But, the current NHC track hooking north and weakening over land is the ideal outcome. If Dorian comes in further south and goes over the Everglades or Okerchobee then there is not a whole lot to weaken it if it were to go into the Gulf


Not ideal for those of us in the track.
6 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3352 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:00 am




:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: THIS :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

I agree with Ryan Maue. I do not see anything to stop this from attaining Cat 5 status during the Labor Day Holiday weekend at some point.

Dorian is definitely going down in the history books for certain when it is all said and done..

Unfortunately, this nightmare is only beginning with Dorian :cry: :cry: Long way from being over .............
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
7 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1699
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3353 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:01 am

supercane4867 wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:


The compact size of Dorian will certainly aid in the intensification process. Now that the eye is clearing, it's off to the races until an eye wall replacement cycle occurs. Upwelling is the only possible obstacle for Dorian.

Upwelling is not really a problem if it decides to sit over the Gulf Stream


You are right. It depends on where/when/if a crawling motion occurs. It might not slow down until it's too late for Florida. Then, the slow down becomes catastrophic for wind and flooding.
0 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

newtotex
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 231
Age: 37
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:19 pm
Location: Denton, Tx

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3354 Postby newtotex » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:01 am

norva13x wrote:
newtotex wrote:Hopefully this thing doesn’t hit as a Cat. 4 and FL will get lucky. But, the current NHC track hooking north and weakening over land is the ideal outcome. If Dorian comes in further south and goes over the Everglades or Okerchobee then there is not a whole lot to weaken it if it were to go into the Gulf


Not ideal for those of us in the track.


Yea, Dorian not hitting land would be the best option obviously. Just hypothetical
2 likes   

User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3355 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:01 am

newtotex wrote:Hopefully this thing doesn’t hit as a Cat. 4 and FL will get lucky. But, the current NHC track hooking north and weakening over land is the ideal outcome. If Dorian comes in further south and goes over the Everglades or Okerchobee then there is not a whole lot to weaken it if it were to go into the Gulf


The hook north amd subsequent slow movement is not best cast scenario. This is going to expose a large swath densely populated areas of the peninsula to prolonged hurricane force winds and torrential rain.
2 likes   

User avatar
StPeteMike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 633
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:26 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3356 Postby StPeteMike » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:02 am

The NWS discussion pretty much has Dorian going almost due north or a NNW track after landfall. I don’t see what they’re seeing that would cause such a sharp right turn.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

norva13x
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 102
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:41 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3357 Postby norva13x » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:02 am

The only reason I can't see a cat 5 is the improbability of having two within a year of each other hitting Florida, hard to wrap the mind around that. Not that Dorian would care of course.
0 likes   

newtotex
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 231
Age: 37
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:19 pm
Location: Denton, Tx

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3358 Postby newtotex » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:03 am

FLpanhandle91 wrote:
newtotex wrote:Hopefully this thing doesn’t hit as a Cat. 4 and FL will get lucky. But, the current NHC track hooking north and weakening over land is the ideal outcome. If Dorian comes in further south and goes over the Everglades or Okerchobee then there is not a whole lot to weaken it if it were to go into the Gulf


The hook north amd subsequent slow movement is not best cast scenario. This is going to expose a large swath densely populated areas of the peninsula to prolonged hurricane force winds and torrential rain.


True. It not hitting at all would be best since there really is no “good” scenario when a hurricane hits. Probably not the best choice of words
1 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3223
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3359 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:07 am

Just a reminder of how quickly things can (and likely will) change - Here is Irma's forecast 2.5 days from Landfall.... We all know what happened. We are still over 3 days out here, at least, with Dorian.

Image
6 likes   

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1772
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: SW Broward, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3360 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:08 am

Unless my eyes deceive me last few frames, I think we may be at the point where the storm is gaining slightly more longitude than it is latitude.
0 likes   


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests