ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Highteeld]

By far the strongest landfall of the UKmet runs i have seen; about 942 mb in Melbourne

[b0tzy29]

Last 5 00z Euro runs

[Jonny]

So GOM is starting to look less likely, but still possible?

[KWT]

HMON runs it just offshore up the coast, quite similar to the 12z ECM last night that moved it WSW then sharp northwards.

[SFLcane]

12z HWRF..

[Steve]

Because of the angle of approach, the landfall location is going to be difficult until the last 24 hours. The models are for the most part in fairly strong agreement as to the basic idea. They will probably change a bit from run to run, and even their combined average may change between now and landfall. The NHC has been pretty consistent with their track, which is similar to what we see in the models now, and have only made slight adjustments based on the nuances of the guidance packages.

Agreed. The angle of the approach to model-defined landfall point is unprecedented as depicted in the GFS and some of the 12z models. Could happen with a WWNW, W or WNW approach toward Cape Canaveral, but the likelihood is pretty low. I'd bet almost any amount of money that a glancing blow or change of direction at/near landfall would happen. For historical purposes only, It would be a trip (not for my people in Brevard) to get a major hit up that way.

[chris_fit]

[SFLcane]

12Z hwrf is bit south from from its 06z run

[b0tzy29]

https://i.imgur.com/p2bf6pl.png

not one of these members shows it missing CONUS... damn

[Jevo]

4 pages of people arguing about consensus lol

Can we get back to posting the models please..

Would you say that is the consensus opinion?

haha how's it going Aric? What's your take on the shift

[NDG]

Last 5 00z Euro runs

https://media.giphy.com/media/mEmmsq7y8jrTNi7FLx/giphy.gif

Anything past its 72-96 hr forecast is going to be inconsistent. By no means the Euro is that good. But it is fairly good in its 72-96 hour compared to other models in that range, except when Dorian was a weak system and didn't see it strengthening and gaining latitude well before Hispaniola

[jfk08c]

https://i.imgur.com/p2bf6pl.png

Solid spread. All going to come down to how strong the ridge is and when it begins its northward jog

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://i.imgur.com/p2bf6pl.png

Most noticeable detail for me is how not a single ensemble didn’t make landfall. not one

[BobHarlem]

HMON Landfall near Cocoa Beach (6z was Ft. Lauderdale, so huge shift north)

[KWT]

Decent agreement on the 12z ensembles as well for a central Florida hit, pretty close to the GFS/UKMO agreement as well has to be said.

Going to be a close call, any faster and Dorian gets into the gulf, any slower and Dorian may ride the east coast towards the Carolinas.

[Steve]

HWRF last few plots through 87 hours are due west about 27.2 +/- Jupiter/Juno Beach, FL. Gotta landfall there on this run, right?

Stuart/Port St. Lucie @ 93 hours so valid 4am Tuesday on the HWRF

[chris_fit]

Basically - Melbourne/Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral - Don't wanna be there according to many many of the 12Z Models

[Aric Dunn]

4 pages of people arguing about consensus lol

Can we get back to posting the models please..

Would you say that is the consensus opinion?

haha how's it going Aric? What's your take on the shift

Lol.. what consensus?

I just want to see the plot of the ukmet. Im not home and nothing is loading on my phone

[b0tzy29]

Last 5 00z Euro runs

https://media.giphy.com/media/mEmmsq7y8jrTNi7FLx/giphy.gif

Anything past its 72-96 hr forecast is going to be inconsistent. By no means the Euro is that good. But it is fairly good in its 72-96 hour compared to other models in that range, except when Dorian was a weak system and didn't see it strengthening and gaining latitude well before Hispaniola

Yes of course... but definitely has moved more east over time

[petit_bois]

So GOM is starting to look less likely, but still possible?

14 yrs ago the Katrina models were looking VERY similar to these... remarkable similar.
I'm not going to be surprised on Sunday when the consensus points to the big bend area and then only to be pointing to MS coast on Monday.
All these models have struggled with verifying out beyond 18hrs with this storm... watch the chaos when it loses its steering current.
JMHO