ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bjm519209]

i’ve been on here lurking in the shadows for a few years now and I’ve noticed a trend over those years with the models. During the daytime runs they typically shift to the east and in the overnight or evening runs things tend to shift back to the west. Why is this? Everyone calls this the windshield wiper effect but if you look at when this effect is happening it regularly falls into daytime/west. nighttime/west

Thank you in advance.

[CryHavoc]

Looks like Florida won’t get hit

Please don't do that without saying it's an amateur's opinion. A lot of people on here might take you seriously and of course you don't want that responsibility, right?

I make a lot of predictions (half of which end up wrong ) and have kept the disclaimer in my sig for that reason.

A sig is not permission to say whatever you want on these forums, especially the way you did which makes you sound certain that it's going to recurve OTS.

It's dangerous and this isn't the time nor the place for that.

[Hammy]

Please don't do that without saying it's an amateur's opinion. A lot of people on here might take you seriously and of course you don't want that responsibility, right?

I make a lot of predictions (half of which end up wrong ) and have kept the disclaimer in my sig for that reason.

A sig is not permission to say whatever you want on these forums, especially the way you did which makes you sound certain that it's going to recurve OTS.

It's dangerous and this isn't the time nor the place for that.

The sig is there so that users can make their own forecasts based on data and not be mistaken for official forecasts.

[otowntiger]

This is really ramping up. CIMSS ADT is probably not wrong about it approaching Cat 4. I've been thinking all along tht it's not likely it wil make a Cat 5 since they are so rare but from the looks of this and the very favorble conditions now I'm beginning to think it has a pretty good shot at Cat 5. This is just going to be horrible where it makes landfall.

IF it makes landfall, right?

[Buck]

Back are the days of infinite EWRC declarations, calls for RI and wobble watching.

What a subculture we have.

[xironman]

Looks like another ERC is starting.. some evidence of inner convection firing and an outer ring of convection.. hard to say but sure looks like it ..

So how big would the eye be when that happens? I guess we will see when recon eventually gets there.

[wx98]

Looks to me it have pretty much stalled for on hour, or at least not moving much

A sign that the turn is imminent.

Looks like Florida won’t get hit

Why would you say that? Literally turning toward Florida

[CryHavoc]

i’ve been on here lurking in the shadows for a few years now and I’ve noticed a trend over those years with the models. During the daytime runs they typically shift to the east and in the overnight or evening runs things tend to shift back to the west. Why is this? Everyone calls this the windshield wiper effect but if you look at when this effect is happening it regularly falls into daytime/west. nighttime/west

Thank you in advance.

I personally have not witnessed this. Models shift all the time. Unless you have several examples to provide, it makes it hard to really evaluate what you're saying.

Hurricanes do tend to gain more strength at night than during the day (as the diurnal heating of the ocean makes the water slightly warmer at night, especially in the early hours of nightfall), but that doesn't necessarily correspond to a shift in track.

[La Sirena]

I make a lot of predictions (half of which end up wrong ) and have kept the disclaimer in my sig for that reason.

A sig is not permission to say whatever you want on these forums, especially the way you did which makes you sound certain that it's going to recurve OTS.

It's dangerous and this isn't the time nor the place for that.

The sig is there so that users can make their own forecasts based on data and not be mistaken for official forecasts.

While somewhat true, I still think that those who are just checking the board for the first time (and are likely worried or panicked) don’t even see or truly process the disclaimer. It’s probably just easiest to not post the predictions as fact.

[AutoPenalti]

Wesh 2’s Tony said he expects the cone to move to the east by maybe 50 miles at the 5pm update. There’s hope the it will recurve and not hit any land and that chance is increasing.

Seriously, this Wesh 2 stuff needs to stop. NHC are not going to shift an entire cone over one run. They do not model hug and for him to expect stuff like this just seems wrong.

[MetroMike]

A sign that the turn is imminent.

Looks like Florida won’t get hit

Please don't do that without saying it's an amateur's opinion. A lot of people on here might take you seriously and of course you don't want that responsibility, right?

The Euro has flipped so many time with this. Coast, offshore, eastern coastal, right peninsula on shore
I think there are more flips to come.

[Lannes]

Back are the days of infinite EWRC declarations, calls for RI and wobble watching.

What a subculture we have.

A rare de-lurking to say, "The song remains the same..."

[jlauderdal]

Wesh 2’s Tony said he expects the cone to move to the east by maybe 50 miles at the 5pm update. There’s hope the it will recurve and not hit any land and that chance is increasing.

Seriously, this Wesh 2 stuff needs to stop. NHC are not going to shift an entire cone over one run. They do not model hug and for him to expect stuff like this just seems wrong.

A 50 mile track adjustment to the east doesn't seemunreasonable, the cone moves in tandem with track as its pure statistics

[TheDreamTraveler]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1167523251293212674

[Aric Dunn]

Wesh 2’s Tony said he expects the cone to move to the east by maybe 50 miles at the 5pm update. There’s hope the it will recurve and not hit any land and that chance is increasing.

Seriously, this Wesh 2 stuff needs to stop. NHC are not going to shift an entire cone over one run. They do not model hug and for him to expect stuff like this just seems wrong.

we have seen them throw the euro out on occasion over the years.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks like Florida won’t get hit

Please don't do that without saying it's an amateur's opinion. A lot of people on here might take you seriously and of course you don't want that responsibility, right?

The Euro has flipped so many time with this. Coast, offshore, eastern coastal, right peninsula on shore
I think there are more flips to come.

I expect more swings as well.

[CryHavoc]

I make a lot of predictions (half of which end up wrong ) and have kept the disclaimer in my sig for that reason.

A sig is not permission to say whatever you want on these forums, especially the way you did which makes you sound certain that it's going to recurve OTS.

It's dangerous and this isn't the time nor the place for that.

The sig is there so that users can make their own forecasts based on data and not be mistaken for official forecasts.

People coming to this board who are potentially ~100 hours away from losing their homes may not have the time or presence of mind to read your sig. Furthermore, it may not even show up on the page at all, depending on the settings people assign to their profile.

All I'm asking is that we refrain from making statements that sound like certainty when we're 4 days out from a potential major hurricane landfall. We know people come here for guidance and advice, and IMO (and according to many admins that I've seen post on this matter) means we do have a reasonable expectation of not posting pure speculation like it's ironclad fact.

[AutoPenalti]

Wesh 2’s Tony said he expects the cone to move to the east by maybe 50 miles at the 5pm update. There’s hope the it will recurve and not hit any land and that chance is increasing.

Seriously, this Wesh 2 stuff needs to stop. NHC are not going to shift an entire cone over one run. They do not model hug and for him to expect stuff like this just seems wrong.

A 50 mile track adjustment to the east doesn't seemunreasonable, the cone moves in tandem with track as its pure statistics

Not over one model run.

[zhukm29]

What a stunning storm. To think this has potentially 96 more hours over water...

[drewschmaltz]

I think we can now say with a fair amount of certainty that this will be somewhere between the keys and out to sea. That's the boundary of the trends from what I can tell. From what I understand data is backwards fed into the models based on movement to retroactively match the path (is this true?) and if true, the certainty goes up dramatically once Dorian begins interacting with the features that will ultimately determine landfall.