ATL: DORIAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 42
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4041 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:25 pm

Interestingly over the last several runs the Canadian model has had the smallest variation.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2149
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4042 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:26 pm

After landfall the icon is still moving much faster than the 12z, it'll be out in the Gulf by Naples @99 hours, at the same time on the 12z it was still hanging just inland on the east coast.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4043 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:28 pm

ICON brings the center offshore into GOM...
1 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4044 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:29 pm

Image
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
pcolaman
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:33 am
Location: Pensacola Fla

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4045 Postby pcolaman » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:31 pm

supercane4867 wrote:ICON brings the center offshore into GOM...


Saw that , here we go with the wind shields again. :double:
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7185
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4046 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:32 pm

BobHarlem wrote:After landfall the icon is still moving much faster than the 12z, it'll be out in the Gulf by Naples @99 hours, at the same time on the 12z it was still hanging just inland on the east coast.

the ICON has the same idea with a turn but due to its speed it makes it all the way across before turning....its not a crazy idea and its been consistent with this idea albeit it's now farther north
0 likes   
Top
OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1738
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:
Contact OuterBanker

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4047 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:32 pm

Back from errands. Looks like NHC went with east shift at 5pm in which most of the major models are depicting.
I'm hoping that it will move OTS and not bother anyone.
3 likes   
Top
BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2149
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4048 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:33 pm

The low to the west and the forward speed of Dorian as it approaches Florida is everything with this model set, and will probably be the reason for the windshield wiper stuff that is bound to happen over the next day or two.
0 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4049 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:34 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Back from errands. Looks like NHC went with east shift at 5pm in which most of the major models are depicting.
I'm hoping that it will move OTS and not bother anyone.

The Bahamas are going to be hammered.
0 likes   
Top
MacTavish

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4050 Postby MacTavish » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:34 pm

Hammy wrote:Interestingly over the last several runs the Canadian model has had the smallest variation.


Cmc has been conistent. Gfs legacy has shown a track similar to the current NHC track since 06Z Wednesday
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2587
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4051 Postby kevin » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:35 pm

While I haven't posted a lot, I've been following the forum for quite a while now and I honestly can't recall another storm with so much model uncertainty. I guess we'll just have to wait for the other 18z runs.
3 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10152
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4052 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:38 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Wow, how much fun are the next 24 hours of model runs... Got my alarm set for 1:45 am Euro... :D



LAME sleeping is not allowed....



I'm not what I use to be, 2004 it was all nighter... :lol:
7 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
hurricaneCW
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
Location: Toms River, NJ

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4053 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:38 pm

I do fear that this will be slightly westward version of Matthew where it's barely inland and goes up the entire eastern peninsula up to the Carolinas and very slowly too.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10152
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4054 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:38 pm

Image
18z ICON... Likes Miami...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16019
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4055 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:39 pm

18z GFS initialized:
Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16019
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4056 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:40 pm

18z GFS hours 0-24:
Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 42
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4057 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:41 pm

Early GFS coming in, looks a bit faster but not much change north or south. Trending back west with the models now?
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4058 Postby fci » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:41 pm

JPmia wrote:So what in the atmosphere or data has changed with the Euro to flip to the north like this? Was it new data being used for the model? This is quite the change.


Mike Watkins has a very good video explaining some of the reasons. the link was on a prior page in either this, or the Discussion thread; not too long ago
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16019
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4059 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:41 pm

Trend of the 4 most recent GFS runs:
Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4060 Postby fci » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:43 pm

supercane4867 wrote:ICON brings the center offshore into GOM...


Wow, the most reliable models have pretty much completely backed away from this ever getting to the GOM.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest